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Coinbase lays off around 1,100 employees

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Re: Coinbase lays off around 1,100 employees

#5

Genuine question: At what point do we actually declare that we are in recession. Do we wait for GDP figures out these signs are enough to assume we are in bear markets now.

Real GDP has to shrink for it to be a recession. GDP in the United States is currently growing strongly. The Conference Board is not predicting a recession in the U.S. in 2022, and they just updated their forecasts a few days ago.

Re: Coinbase lays off around 1,100 employees

#6

Genuine question: At what point do we actually declare that we are in recession. Do we wait for GDP figures out these signs are enough to assume we are in bear markets now.

Some crypto collapsing does not mean it is a recession. The exploding prices for real goods and less and less people being able to afford basic things are the indicator for that.

Re: Coinbase lays off around 1,100 employees

#7

Genuine question: At what point do we actually declare that we are in recession. Do we wait for GDP figures out these signs are enough to assume we are in bear markets now.

Recession is a loosely defined economic term where the exact definition depends on who's reporting it, traditionally, it's meant 2 quarters of decline in GDP growth. But now:

The NBER defines a recession as a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/recession.asp

But recession is a macroeconomic term that may not reflect the actual impact on consumers -- conusumers could be suffering through an economic downturn that's not technically a "recession".

Re: Coinbase lays off around 1,100 employees

#8
post #5

Genuine question: At what point do we actually declare that we are in recession. Do we wait for GDP figures out these signs are enough to assume we are in bear markets now.

Real GDP has to shrink for it to be a recession. GDP in the United States is currently growing strongly. The Conference Board is not predicting a recession in the U.S. in 2022, and they just updated their forecasts a few days ago.

> GDP in the United States is currently growing strongly

Last quarter was -1.4% growth, so probably not growing strongly (but who knows, maybe just a blip...)

https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-economy-gdp-growth-q1-116511...

Re: Coinbase lays off around 1,100 employees

#9
post #8
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Real GDP has to shrink for it to be a recession. GDP in the United States is currently growing strongly. The Conference Board is not predicting a recession in the U.S. in 2022, and they just updated their forecasts a few days ago.

> GDP in the United States is currently growing strongly Last quarter was -1.4% growth, so probably not growing strongly (but who knows, maybe just a blip...) https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-economy-gdp-growth-q1-116511...

And Q2 is anticipated to be +2.1%, based on late-Q2 analyses. One quarter of stochastic sign change does not get you a recession.

A more pessimistic view gives +1% for Q2: https://www.atlantafed.org/-/media/documents/cqer/researchcq...

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