Why has the crypto boom and bust lined up so closely with the COVID pandemic? Is it a coincidence or is there some underlying cause?
People needed a hobby, I think. Now they're outside again.
Coinbase Announces 18% Layoffs
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Re: Coinbase Announces 18% Layoffs
#62It’s been pretty interesting watching YC backed Coinbase get absolutely crushed by FTX, which has a higher % of crypto trading volume despite having less than 10% of the headcount. Crypto is a zero sum game, and the old Paul Graham essays and other tired VC dogmas really only work in positive sum games. FTX was founded by traders which is valuable when the ultimate purpose of the crypto industry is to separate uninfo…
Yeah. FTX people clearly know a lot more about market making and how exchanges work. Makes coinbase look like amateurs. Coinbase hired their CPO with a 650 million dollar pay package. They should have spent that money on 2 - 5 million a year hft programmers and traders
What do you make of Sam Bankman-Fried describing his business as a literal Ponzi scheme on Odd Lots podcast?
The commentary isn’t necessary to see the insanity but here’s fastest way to get to the relevant content: https://youtu.be/C6nAxiym9oc
Edit: To clarify, though not sure how much a mitigation this is, yes SBF is describing much of the underlying activity he takes commission on as a Ponzi scheme. Sure, he’s not operating the Ponzi itself, just keeping it operational and profiting from its continued operation. Mea culpa.
Re: Coinbase Announces 18% Layoffs
#63Crypto is clearly crashing but I’m more curious if a reckoning will hit FAANG, particularly Google. I know one person there who is the spouse of a good friend, and they make nearly 7 figures as a middle manager (although I’m unsure what happens with the stock declines and RSUs). Can these companies support legions of absurdly highly paid people? GOOG is down 25% this year, what will happen when it drops 50%?
Netflix is likely the one getting in trouble. Rest likely will do somewhat stable, though stock price might be flat or downwards for a while.
Re: Coinbase Announces 18% Layoffs
#64It’s been pretty interesting watching YC backed Coinbase get absolutely crushed by FTX, which has a higher % of crypto trading volume despite having less than 10% of the headcount. Crypto is a zero sum game, and the old Paul Graham essays and other tired VC dogmas really only work in positive sum games. FTX was founded by traders which is valuable when the ultimate purpose of the crypto industry is to separate uninfo…
I have never heard of FTX until reading your comment just now. Is it really crushing Coinbase?
Re: Coinbase Announces 18% Layoffs
#65Earlier quoted context omitted.
“It is fascinating just how quickly sentiments can change” Sounds like a classic bubble that people have been warning about. Tulips all over again? https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/05/02/warren-buffett-wouldnt-s...
Beanie Babies all over again
Worse, at least the Beanie Bros had warehouses full of stuffed toys to remind them of their mistakes in the end. All the cryptoists get is a lousy set of characters for their trouble.
Re: Coinbase Announces 18% Layoffs
#66> Coinbase has survived through four major crypto winters I don't understand - has crypto been around long enough to have winters? When were they?
You ever get the feeling cryptocurrency-related companies and a large chunk of their customer base live in their own reality? I think they have seasons now.
Re: Coinbase Announces 18% Layoffs
#67Earlier quoted context omitted.
>There’s no recession as far as the eye can see. Back your pardon? The Fed is expected to raise the interest rate by 0.75% in September, IIRC. If that's not a recession on the horizon, then what is?
Raising rates has a lagging effect. That results in the economy won’t be felt until next year. One of the benefits of crypto was supposed to be that it was uncorrelated to the market, etc. “Money” shouldn’t change in value so quickly.
> One of the benefits of crypto was supposed to be that it was uncorrelated to the market, etc.
Crypto may or may not have its own issues, but all assets tend to suffer 'correlation breakdown' during market volatility.
Re: Coinbase Announces 18% Layoffs
#68Earlier quoted context omitted.
>There’s no recession as far as the eye can see. Back your pardon? The Fed is expected to raise the interest rate by 0.75% in September, IIRC. If that's not a recession on the horizon, then what is?
Is there a "recession" in the rest of the tech industry? I took that to be the point of the person you are replying to.
Yes? Many stocks are down >50% and companies are announcing hiring freezes
Re: Coinbase Announces 18% Layoffs
#69This is sad. This was avoidable. There’s no recession as far as the eye can see. There’s a crypto recession. Let’s go back to building real tech.
> There’s no recession as far as the eye can see. There’s a crypto recession.
Don't be the guy who replied to my comment, waiting for the results to tell you that it is a recession. [0] If you are preparing now, you're almost too late.
Only the paranoid survive.
> Let’s go back to building real tech.
Like the spyware laden software made by the likes of Meta, Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon that they are building? No worse than crypto I'm afraid.
The free-software foundation are still waiting for you and others for 37 years to stop building non-free software riddled with surveillance and tracking. But neither that nor crypto is going to stop is it?
Re: Coinbase Announces 18% Layoffs
#70It’s been pretty interesting watching YC backed Coinbase get absolutely crushed by FTX, which has a higher % of crypto trading volume despite having less than 10% of the headcount. Crypto is a zero sum game, and the old Paul Graham essays and other tired VC dogmas really only work in positive sum games. FTX was founded by traders which is valuable when the ultimate purpose of the crypto industry is to separate uninfo…
> Crypto is a zero sum game
How come? The same network effects that work for social networks work here, as more people and businesses use crypto, it's value proposition raises quadratically.