41–50 of 616 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
>There’s no recession as far as the eye can see. Back your pardon? The Fed is expected to raise the interest rate by 0.75% in September, IIRC. If that's not a recession on the horizon, then what is?
We would still be below 2%. Interest Rate in the United States averaged 5.44 percent from 1971 until 2022.
If we follow the weekly updates: 1. First a hiring "slowdown". 2. Hiring freeze and rescinded offers. 3. 18% layoffs. What's the reason behind announcing it in stages? Don't they receive much more negative publicity this way? Or are they really making decisions from one week for the next?
In a continuous approach, you run the company according to control-theory like laws. Ie. you want to maximize profits, so you adjust the workforce up and down gradually to maximize profits. If labor prices go down 3% you might increase headcount by 1.5% to stay at optimal profitability. All parts of the company get optimized to the best of your ability like this, with signals giving a proportionate effect to the levers you control.
In a discrete approach, you recognise that some actions will have dramatic non-linear effects, and therefore it's better to announce a 10% downscaling rather than ten separate 1% downscalings.
The downside of the discrete approach is your response to signals is delayed, because you want to group together the bad news, and don't want to pull a big lever based on uncertain information.
This is normal, nothing to see here.
It’s been pretty interesting watching YC backed Coinbase get absolutely crushed by FTX, which has a higher % of crypto trading volume despite having less than 10% of the headcount. Crypto is a zero sum game, and the old Paul Graham essays and other tired VC dogmas really only work in positive sum games. FTX was founded by traders which is valuable when the ultimate purpose of the crypto industry is to separate uninfo…
This is sad. This was avoidable. There’s no recession as far as the eye can see. There’s a crypto recession. Let’s go back to building real tech.
It’s been pretty interesting watching YC backed Coinbase get absolutely crushed by FTX, which has a higher % of crypto trading volume despite having less than 10% of the headcount. Crypto is a zero sum game, and the old Paul Graham essays and other tired VC dogmas really only work in positive sum games. FTX was founded by traders which is valuable when the ultimate purpose of the crypto industry is to separate uninfo…
This is sad. This was avoidable. There’s no recession as far as the eye can see. There’s a crypto recession. Let’s go back to building real tech.
> This was avoidable. There’s no recession as far as the eye can see. Can you elaborate on how the situation we're in was avoidable? Also curious why you think there's no signs of a recession.
The recession part is of course debatable.
Did coinbase pay employees in dollars or crypto? Paying employees in coinbase-coins sounds very attractive, and if there is any group of people who would want that it's employees of a crypto company...
It’s been pretty interesting watching YC backed Coinbase get absolutely crushed by FTX, which has a higher % of crypto trading volume despite having less than 10% of the headcount. Crypto is a zero sum game, and the old Paul Graham essays and other tired VC dogmas really only work in positive sum games. FTX was founded by traders which is valuable when the ultimate purpose of the crypto industry is to separate uninfo…