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We will never have enough software developers (2020)

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Re: We will never have enough software developers (2020)

#51

Post by dhzhzjsbevs »

trashtester wrote: post #23
cs137 wrote: post #10

There isn't a shortage of software developers. The pay isn't great--the kids getting $300K packages out of Stanford are an exception; it's a marketing expense. In fact, if you control for the level of intelligence it takes to be any good, SWEs make less (and get far less autonomy--do you think lawyers work on Jira tickets?) than any other professional, and they hit a salary/challenge plateau quick... after which, the…

SWE's are not the only ones that think that their pay is low compared to their intelligence level, their education level, how tough, inconvenient or important their work is or what they feel they deserve for some other reason. For instance, I'm sure there are plenty of HR managers in various companies that are secretly furious about all the young young mostly males, mostly white or asian, still in their 20s, join the…

You're not wrong.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WkKHupWzB-g

Re: We will never have enough software developers (2020)

#52

Post by bambax »

itsmemattchung wrote: post #32

With OpenAi (and other comparable technologies) able to semantically understand "write fast and efficient C code for a prime sieve" and generate fairly impressive C code, I'm no longer sure I agree that we will never have enough software developers (after watching this, made me get just a little nervous as well as excited about the future of our industry): https://youtu.be/k_EF42H2ZC0?t=187

I'm very curious about how this "AI writing code" thing is going to turn out.

I have not tested AI myself for producing code, but I toy a little (ok, more than a little) with various GPT instances to write prose. Sometimes it's great, sometimes it's poor, but:

1/ It never gets anywhere: there is never any resolution

2/ Sometimes it just loops, takes up a clue from itself and produces the same set of words indefinitely.

What I do is generate, survey, and then edit. It's a great tool to get new ideas. But how could this work for code that's supposed to accomplish something?

Code is famously much harder to read than to write; that's why people always prefer rewriting than refactoring. With code-generating AI, all that's left for humans to do is the reading, understanding, and monitoring parts.

It's a difficult job, and if done by incompetent youngsters, I think pretty dangerous too.

Re: We will never have enough software developers (2020)

#53

Post by jonwachob91 »

cs137 wrote: post #10

There isn't a shortage of software developers. The pay isn't great--the kids getting $300K packages out of Stanford are an exception; it's a marketing expense. In fact, if you control for the level of intelligence it takes to be any good, SWEs make less (and get far less autonomy--do you think lawyers work on Jira tickets?) than any other professional, and they hit a salary/challenge plateau quick... after which, the…

>> SWEs make less (and get far less autonomy--do you think lawyers work on Jira tickets?) than any other professional

Nurses are professionals too, and they will never see anything close to $300k/year.

Re: We will never have enough software developers (2020)

#54

Post by jaredandrews »

cs137 wrote: post #10

There isn't a shortage of software developers. The pay isn't great--the kids getting $300K packages out of Stanford are an exception; it's a marketing expense. In fact, if you control for the level of intelligence it takes to be any good, SWEs make less (and get far less autonomy--do you think lawyers work on Jira tickets?) than any other professional, and they hit a salary/challenge plateau quick... after which, the…

> do you think lawyers work on Jira tickets?

LOL, a lawyer in my family does. He actually meets with a whole group of lawyers every month or so and they all do a retrospective to figure out how well applying agile/lean/whatever principles to their firms has been working. He actually feels it gives them a real edge.

Re: We will never have enough software developers (2020)

#55

Post by tartoran »

trashtester wrote: post #11
speedgoose wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a software developer, you are going to use gpt 42 to develop software. You will probably write a lot less code manually, but it’s not a bad thing.

Perhaps, or maybe gpt models will reach AGI capabilities way before version 42, and able to fill every role in a corporation, from CEO and down. If we assume one version every 12-24 months, GPT 42 would arrive some time between 2060 and 2100.

They’d still need Gpt or AGI specialists or any new type of engineers that would arise from that. One class of problems may be solved but it will certainly be replaced by a different one.

Re: We will never have enough software developers (2020)

#56

Post by jleyank »

Be careful this isn’t an an excuse for ageism. Skills like problem solving, debugging,, planning, … these are invariants and always useful. The language or tool that is used will change, but the underlying process remains the same.

Medical and scientific fields have continuous learning via papers, conferences, even courses that update peoples skills. Also, there’s new ideas and methods coming in with new people who then get involved in the skill exchange once hired (latest synthesis ideas vs. Picking up medchem).

And it seems to be panic buying and selling in this field - inhaling anything with a pulse 5-7 weeks ago and now trying to lay off half the staff today or next week. Same problems, same market issues.

And if the damned SWE’s we’re valuable they’d give them proper working conditions. As somebody wrote, lawyers don’t do jira tickets.

Re: We will never have enough software developers (2020)

#57

Post by trollytroll69 »

cs137 wrote: post #10

There isn't a shortage of software developers. The pay isn't great--the kids getting $300K packages out of Stanford are an exception; it's a marketing expense. In fact, if you control for the level of intelligence it takes to be any good, SWEs make less (and get far less autonomy--do you think lawyers work on Jira tickets?) than any other professional, and they hit a salary/challenge plateau quick... after which, the…

buddy our goal is to make their professions just a shitty and atomizing as ours. it is the way (the faster the better). the professional class are an impediment to progress idc how mean that sounds.

Re: We will never have enough software developers (2020)

#58

Post by bruce343434 »

adrianN wrote: post #42
cabraca wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

its not just the best ones. If you remove people from the grind for 1-2 days a week, give them a small budget and enough autonomy to do what they want, most people will fix shit that bugged them for a long time. The main problem is how micromanage-y the current development processes are. Everything has to be a ticket/user story and has to be planned and approved by some people that never even wrote a single line of c…

Shit that bugged them for a long time might have a lot less value to the business than a tedious task that nobody wants.

So you'd rather have bugged out people which decreases morale which decreases productivity? See it as an investment. Yes, motor oil is more expensive than no motor oil, but it makes the engine run a lot better.

Re: We will never have enough software developers (2020)

#59

Post by Gigachad »

cs137 wrote: post #10

There isn't a shortage of software developers. The pay isn't great--the kids getting $300K packages out of Stanford are an exception; it's a marketing expense. In fact, if you control for the level of intelligence it takes to be any good, SWEs make less (and get far less autonomy--do you think lawyers work on Jira tickets?) than any other professional, and they hit a salary/challenge plateau quick... after which, the…

Cry me a river. Software development is some of the easiest, highest paid work in history. The majority of the population is grinding away in tough physical labor or abusive service jobs getting paid pennies while software devs moan about only making low six figures and getting a few boring jira tickets while they sit in their home office reading hacker news for half the day.

Re: We will never have enough software developers (2020)

#60

Post by sshine »

drekipus wrote: post #31
trashtester wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SWE's are not the only ones that think that their pay is low compared to their intelligence level, their education level, how tough, inconvenient or important their work is or what they feel they deserve for some other reason. For instance, I'm sure there are plenty of HR managers in various companies that are secretly furious about all the young young mostly males, mostly white or asian, still in their 20s, join the…

I'm sure HR managers know that the majority of jobs they are hiring for are different from the job they're in, with different pay scales and demographics. Infact I'd say it's their profession.

Also, HR Manager is a low-risk job.

Recruiter is the high-risk equivalent.

So not only do you compete with a lot of people for the job, the pay structure does not depend on performance.

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