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We will never have enough software developers (2020)

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11–20 of 553 posts

Re: We will never have enough software developers (2020)

#11

Just wait for gpt 42, it will be better than most of us at coding.

As a software developer, you are going to use gpt 42 to develop software. You will probably write a lot less code manually, but it’s not a bad thing.

Perhaps, or maybe gpt models will reach AGI capabilities way before version 42, and able to fill every role in a corporation, from CEO and down.

If we assume one version every 12-24 months, GPT 42 would arrive some time between 2060 and 2100.

Re: We will never have enough software developers (2020)

#12
>High-ability workers are faster learners, in all jobs. However, the relative return to ability is higher in careers that change less, because learning gains accumulate.

This is not the only reason for the quick learner -> high dropout thing. By the article's definition, I'd be a "fast learner". Most of the industry expects me to come in already knowing what they want me to know, while most ways to obtain said knowledge are blocked by barriers difficult to bypass for non-corporates. Meanwhile, almost every corporate I get in expects me to do the same things for several months and gives me a few learning opportunities every year. At the same time, university primed me to absorb knowledge like a sponge and never get stuck on a single perspective, while corporates are complaining why graduates don't know Spring after graduating.

So somehow you're expecting me to stay while my knowledge deteriorates unless I keep it up in my own time, all the while giving lowball raises and not satisfying my desire for challenges. Yes, I get it, grunt work has to be done. But you really can't tell me you're in need of software developers when you actively push people to do the very thing you claim you don't want them to do.

Re: We will never have enough software developers (2020)

#13

A fascinating premise, and matches what I saw as an engineering director. The best just get bored and move on. I think many teams are unaware how much extra value is possible by retaining existing employees vs hiring new ones. Each year I'd try to make sure I was "making them an offer they couldn't refuse" with new interesting challenges, new tech, plenty of personal research time, as much pay increase as I could pos…

You should fill in your profile with a link to your careers page :-)

Re: We will never have enough software developers (2020)

#14

Ye no. The reason is not Javascript framework churn. I feel the notation that the software field change fast is a MBA take on it since the in fashion key words change name all the time. I guess the underlying reason is that engineers wont be promoted to (real) chief engineers with agency. Being a boss requires reports for some reason. So experienced people leave sweetshops to escape the grind when they get fed up.

> I guess the underlying reason is that engineers wont be promoted to (real) chief engineers with agency. Being a boss requires reports for some reason.

Sadly, this is absolutely true. Manage or be managed. Capitalism invariably becomes corporate (if unchecked, monopoly) capitalism which invariably becomes managerial capitalism, in which people are assessed by their position in the tree structure rather than anything they do, and 0 reports |= loser.

Unfortunately, if you think you can take on a middle-management role and also do technical work, you're probably wrong. Middle management isn't hard but it's super time-consuming, if you do it right (that is, if you care at all about the people you're managing, although you won't have much ability to protect them as you might hope for, because PMs). You'll barely know what the people under you are doing (most managers'll admit this in private) because so much of your time will be spent on meetings and political bullshit.

Re: We will never have enough software developers (2020)

#16
post #8

I read an article some time ago with the reasoning that went like this: "The goal of software development is to automate things. So, in principle, with time there should be less demand for software development skills because most of the hard work has already been done, and we have better, more high level tools. The only reason we see demand for software developers growing is because we let the bad developers in :) Ba…

You're assuming that management actually cares about fixing bugs.

Re: We will never have enough software developers (2020)

#17
post #10

There isn't a shortage of software developers. The pay isn't great--the kids getting $300K packages out of Stanford are an exception; it's a marketing expense. In fact, if you control for the level of intelligence it takes to be any good, SWEs make less (and get far less autonomy--do you think lawyers work on Jira tickets?) than any other professional, and they hit a salary/challenge plateau quick... after which, the…

Agreed. I made more from owning and living in a house than I can possibly save from SWE job.

Re: We will never have enough software developers (2020)

#18
Brother is teaching at the University among other things and from the stories he sometimes tells me:

I do not worry about agism or work at all.

Lets just say that when we were studing, most ppl were not the brightest tool in the shed. Now its supposedly many many times worse.

Re: We will never have enough software developers (2020)

#19
There should really be a surplus of software developers. Most companies are solving problems they don't have, employing a team of 10x more developers than they need - because of course microservices, Kafka, Kubernetes, you name it - cargo culting the shit out of it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8OnoxKotPQ

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