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EU vote to ban all sales of combustion engine vehicles by 2035

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Re: EU vote to ban all sales of combustion engine vehicles by 2035

#131

Post by zbrozek »

Symbiote wrote: post #71
zbrozek wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That cycle will undoubtedly be slower for vehicles than cameras. Much larger, much more expensive population, covering a broader range of niche cases. I think very highly of my EV, but I'm not under the illusion that all fossil fueled vehicles will evaporate quickly. Certainly I expect another 10-15 years out of my 22-year-old truck.

A 22 year old van is already too old to be driven in many European cities. For example, vans must be manufactured on 1 January 2007 or later to be used in Copenhagen. In July the date will become 1 January 2012 [1]. That doesn't yet apply to cars, and I think the truck counts as a car. It does apply in some cities in Germany, where the limit depends on the fuel -- petrol cars are often limited to 30 years (1992), die…

Probably, but I still expect it to be slower than the film camera sunset. If memory serves, it took about a decade for film to evaporate once film camera sales were dominated by digital cameras. I think it'll take 2-3 decades for transportation electricity to do the same to petrol. It's unfortunate, then, that cessation of ICE car sales is so far away.

Re: EU vote to ban all sales of combustion engine vehicles by 2035

#132

Post by hoseja »

pmontra wrote: post #124
wongarsu wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are not in a planned economy, we don't need a 10-year plan for building national supply chains. We have to make sure our electricity infrastructure can cope, everything else can be left up to the market. After all the investment to build a fast charger is easy if you have a guarantee that the number of customers will increase dramatically.

We don't only have to build fast chargers. We have to build electrical power plants with an output equivalent to the energy stored in the fuel used by today's non EV cars. Find sites, get permissions, build. That's a big race no matter the technology used by those power plants. I expect the 2035 limit to be relaxed or result in fewer car sales because we can't power them up.

I don't get how everyone is acting like EVs increase energy demands. They are way more efficient than ICEs, it would even be better to switch to EVs and just burn gasoline in big turbine powerplants.

Re: EU vote to ban all sales of combustion engine vehicles by 2035

#133

Post by fmajid »

scrollaway wrote: post #127
pmontra wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We don't only have to build fast chargers. We have to build electrical power plants with an output equivalent to the energy stored in the fuel used by today's non EV cars. Find sites, get permissions, build. That's a big race no matter the technology used by those power plants. I expect the 2035 limit to be relaxed or result in fewer car sales because we can't power them up.

> I expect the 2035 limit to be relaxed or result in fewer car sales because we can't power them up. Good . We need fewer car sales. We need more non-car infrastructure. We don't need an "output equivalent to the energy stored in the fuel used by today's non EV cars". What we need is fewer cars and more people on public transports and bicycles wherever it makes sense. Less car trips. The current price of gas is alrea…

The population is ageing. The idea that everyone will use bicycles is ableist nonsense.

Re: EU vote to ban all sales of combustion engine vehicles by 2035

#134

Post by Al-Khwarizmi »

fold3 wrote: post #68

E.U. is expected to have their oil production declining by 2030[1] so it's not like they have that much of a choice anyway. [1] https://theshiftproject.org/en/article/eu-oil-depletion-2030...

The EU's oil production has long been declining, and it's quite laughable anyway, an order of magnitude smaller than the US's (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php..., https://yearbook.enerdata.net/crude-oil/world-production-sta...). We almost completely rely on imports.

While I'm happy about initiatives like this for environmental reasons, I'm sure their real reasons have a lot to do with the EU not having oil in a context where it's going to grow increasingly expensive, and not so much with environmental concerns.

Re: EU vote to ban all sales of combustion engine vehicles by 2035

#136

Post by bionsystem »

hoseja wrote: post #132
pmontra wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We don't only have to build fast chargers. We have to build electrical power plants with an output equivalent to the energy stored in the fuel used by today's non EV cars. Find sites, get permissions, build. That's a big race no matter the technology used by those power plants. I expect the 2035 limit to be relaxed or result in fewer car sales because we can't power them up.

I don't get how everyone is acting like EVs increase energy demands. They are way more efficient than ICEs, it would even be better to switch to EVs and just burn gasoline in big turbine powerplants.

I can't see if you are being sarcastic or not but this is definitely wrong. Burning gasoline to move a car is much more efficient than burning gasoline to produce electricity transported to a charger to charge a car to move a car.

Re: EU vote to ban all sales of combustion engine vehicles by 2035

#137

Post by Symbiote »

WhoeverSomeone wrote: post #114
Hamcha wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why wouldn't the used market eat them up? The existing infrastructure of gas station is realistically not going away until enough people have ditched their old vehicles, and cars are thankfully an industry where consumers still expect their cars to last 10+ years. Don't know what everyone else's experience is, but coming from a middle class family, my first car was a 1993 Ford Fiesta (which was ~20 year old at the ti…

> consumers still expect their cars to last 10+ years Much longer than that. I'm in my mid 20s in the UK, and I only know one person who drives a car that's less than a decade old, and she leases it. Everyone else has cars 1995-2011. Mine is a 2010 fiesta which I bought last year. The used car market is huge here.

Not that much longer than that.

> The average age of a car at scrappage in 2015 reached 13.9 years, which is on a par with the 2014 performance. The lowest scrappage age, 13 years, was recorded in 2009, a result of government’s scrappage scheme. [1]

> Furthermore, the average age of a vehicle on the road has increased, from 6.8 years in 2003 to 7.8 recorded in 2015. This reflects both slower fleet renewal and the increased longevity of vehicles.

Looking at the statistics (veh1111.ods in data tables [2]), on 31 December 2021, 63% of cars were less than 10 years old. 86% were less than 15 years old. 96% were less than 20 years old.

[1] https://www.smmt.co.uk/industry-topics/sustainability/averag...

[2] https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/vehicle-licensing-s...

Re: EU vote to ban all sales of combustion engine vehicles by 2035

#138

Post by jhgb »

bionsystem wrote: post #136
hoseja wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't get how everyone is acting like EVs increase energy demands. They are way more efficient than ICEs, it would even be better to switch to EVs and just burn gasoline in big turbine powerplants.

I can't see if you are being sarcastic or not but this is definitely wrong. Burning gasoline to move a car is much more efficient than burning gasoline to produce electricity transported to a charger to charge a car to move a car.

Uh...when was the last time you checked on the difference between the efficiency of small and large heat engines? A large Diesel engine is going to be vastly more efficient than a small one, for example:

> Passenger car diesel engines have energy efficiency of up to 41% but more typically 30% (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_efficiency#Statistics)

> Low-speed diesel engines (as used in ships and other applications where overall engine weight is relatively unimportant) can reach effective efficiencies of up to 55%. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel_engine)

Not to mention that a very large percentage of electricity for charging of vehicles is not going to come from fossil fuels in the first place, especially whenever charging can be planned (which is most of the time in Europe).

Re: EU vote to ban all sales of combustion engine vehicles by 2035

#139

Post by Symbiote »

bionsystem wrote: post #136
hoseja wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't get how everyone is acting like EVs increase energy demands. They are way more efficient than ICEs, it would even be better to switch to EVs and just burn gasoline in big turbine powerplants.

I can't see if you are being sarcastic or not but this is definitely wrong. Burning gasoline to move a car is much more efficient than burning gasoline to produce electricity transported to a charger to charge a car to move a car.

> Under current conditions, driving an electric car is better for the climate than conventional petrol cars in 95% of the world, the study finds.

> The only exceptions are countries such as Poland, where the electricity network is still mostly based on coal-fired power generation.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikescott/2020/03/30/yes-electr...

Re: EU vote to ban all sales of combustion engine vehicles by 2035

#140

Post by scrollaway »

fmajid wrote: post #133
scrollaway wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I expect the 2035 limit to be relaxed or result in fewer car sales because we can't power them up. Good . We need fewer car sales. We need more non-car infrastructure. We don't need an "output equivalent to the energy stored in the fuel used by today's non EV cars". What we need is fewer cars and more people on public transports and bicycles wherever it makes sense. Less car trips. The current price of gas is alrea…

The population is ageing. The idea that everyone will use bicycles is ableist nonsense.

Please put your finger on the word "everyone" in my comment.
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