71~94: Your equity grant is worth a lump sum of money which makes you about as much money as you gave up working for the startup, instead of working for a megacorp at a higher salary with better benefits. Or phrased differently, you get to work for a startup you believe in and enjoy instead of a soul-crushing megacorp, with (almost) no cost. This counts as a win in my book.
But if it doesn't you loose time and money. And have to deal with added frustration of that loss and finding a new job.
At the same who is almost as good as you would have never been through all that. Made more money with the same learning experience as yours.
Its not about the positive scenario that's the problem here. Its the negative scenario.