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Former U.S. congressman, operative pleads guilty to election fraud charges

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Re: Former U.S. congressman, operative pleads guilty to election fraud charges

#881

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the centre of the point of contention (and we can work outward from there) can be isolated like so: have there been zero authoritative personnel that have claimed or implied that fraud sufficient to change the outcome of an election is impossible? And while contemplating this idea, remember that we are dealing with human beings.

Nothing is impossible. But the chance of the being sufficient fraud to change say the presidential election is extremely unlikely, especially given the evidence that we have.

> Nothing is impossible.

Technically, this isn't true.

> But the chance of the being sufficient fraud to change say the presidential election is extremely unlikely....

Technically, the likelihood is not known. Humans are welcome to state estimates of the likelihood, and believe those estimates to be true (and rebroadcast them, seeding the "fact" into other minds), but base reality is where the truth lies. We can (and do!) pretend that our estimated reality is factual but this is a collective cultural delusion, and a harmful one at that (which sometimes people can see clearly (in the behavior of our outgroups), and other times not (in their own and ingroup behavior)). Pick any culture war topic thread on HN, and observe how people describe "reality" - the phenomenon is not really hiding as much as we aren't able to see it (similar to how we couldn't see certain things until we developed techniques, like using lenses to see into different realms of reality).

> ...especially given the evidence that we have.

Our discovery of evidence has no influence on that which preceded it, it only has influence on our beliefs of that which preceded it. Unfortunately, we often tend to not form a distinction between the two.

Re: Former U.S. congressman, operative pleads guilty to election fraud charges

#882

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the centre of the point of contention (and we can work outward from there) can be isolated like so: have there been zero authoritative personnel that have claimed or implied that fraud sufficient to change the outcome of an election is impossible? And while contemplating this idea, remember that we are dealing with human beings.

I don't think the number has to be zero in your hypothetical. (Yes, I'm aware I said "no one", and I'll admit that probably should have been "the vast majority ...")

I use zero as a technique to attempt to "shock" minds into a higher plane of rationality. It's hard to tell how effective this technique is, under various scenarios. It doesn't work great in settings where there are ~no rules, like internet forums. It typically works excellently when debugging tricky software bugs, which is quite analogous to the functioning of the human mind imho, so I think it has promise.

Re: Former U.S. congressman, operative pleads guilty to election fraud charges

#883
post #859

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your entire premise is flawed. There are more than two explanations for changes in votes by demographic. Your biggest mistake is assuming that race itself is a predictor of political affiliation. In a world with established voter suppression efforts and a lack of evidence for voter fraud I see no reason to enact Voter ID. There’s no clear benefit and obvious downsides.

> Your entire premise is flawed. There are more than two explanations for changes in votes by demographic. But which is the larger contributor? We of course will probably never be able to answer that with certainty, but which is more likely to be the larger factor? > Your biggest mistake is assuming that race itself is a predictor of political affiliation. But obviously there do exist correlations between race/ethnic…

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Re: Former U.S. congressman, operative pleads guilty to election fraud charges

#884

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. It was decided by votes in the swing states. There wasn’t a swing in votes in “a dozen counties”. Votes trended toward the democratic candidate across demographically similar counties in all 5 states , and also trended the same way in states that were not critical to the election (for instance, in Texas: “Biden improved on Hillary Clinton's 2016 vote share by 3.24%, giving him the largest percentage in the state…

>Votes trended toward the democratic candidate across demographically similar counties in all 5 states , Categorically false. Increased and majority number of Republican governors were elected. Republicans increased house seats. Trump out performed himself in all counties he won in 2016. Democrats did not trend upwards.

Sorry for the imprecision, I thought it was clear we were discussing the Presidential candidate voting specifically.

Yes, Republican congressmen improved their performance compared to 2018. some voters ticket split and voted for Biden for president and republicans for congress. Although I guess some would say the election hackers just forgot to update the other database columns or something.

Re: Former U.S. congressman, operative pleads guilty to election fraud charges

#885

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I replaced one in 2019 and had to make an appointment at the Social Security Office days ahead of a time and wait 2 hours there in person. The web form existed, but I wasn't eligible.

Also? It's an unlaminated paper card (you're not allowed to laminate it), and you theoretically get a limited number of them before they'll stop replacing them. My feeling about social security cards is that you should keep them in a safe deposit box and never on your person. The idea of needing one to vote is ludicrous to me. It's America's worst card.

The only reason I needed one was to prove my employability in the face of a lapsed passport. I can’t remember the last time I used it for anything and the irs suggests you don’t even need one (ridiculously).

That is to say I agree.

Re: Former U.S. congressman, operative pleads guilty to election fraud charges

#886
post #872

Earlier quoted context omitted.

to deter it from happening again in the future? game theory wise if attempting voter fraud goes unpunished, then the optimal thing to do in order to win is to attempt as much voter fraud as possible, as you have nothing to lose by trying. is this not about as self-evident as it could possibly be?

I think it’s a few dumb individuals who won’t get anywhere with their schemes, not some organized group trying to overturn an election.

what makes you think that?

Re: Former U.S. congressman, operative pleads guilty to election fraud charges

#887

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Factchecks" are nothing more than left wing propaganda opinion articles, they offer little to nothing of value. The "circumstantial" evidence is damning and they STILL refuse to investigate it.

Circumstantial evidence is never daming by it's own definition, especially in a court of law and many claims were investigated by the Barr. They also performed recounts in multiple locations even those controlled by Republicans. You have no proof and I consider it treason to continue to promote lies about election fraud as it attacks democracy.

> I consider it treason to continue to promote lies about election fraud as it attacks democracy.

I consider support for the obvious election fraud treason.. the only lie is we actually have a functioning democracy and legitimate elections.

Re: Former U.S. congressman, operative pleads guilty to election fraud charges

#888

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, every other country outside the US is the best at everything. That's why every American is desperate to make a better life for themselves in the EU, Australia, New Zealand and Canada while the reverse almost never happens.

"According to a Gallup poll from January 2019, 16% of Americans, including 40% of women under the age of 30, would like to leave the United States." In my experience of talking to said Americans, that many can't is largely a case of restrictive immigration policies in most places Americans would like to move to.

Citing 'college girls want to go abroad' is not particularly convincing

Re: Former U.S. congressman, operative pleads guilty to election fraud charges

#889

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

I have, it has holes big enough to drive a big rig through, and has been widely panned by people who know about cell phone location tracking.

So they arrested and held in prison tons of people from Jan6 and held them in prison for over a year based on cell tracking data. I am sure you were objecting to that.
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