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Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

thedefensepost.com

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Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#101

Post by rnk »

indymike wrote: post #42
FooBarWidget wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is definitely watching the US, but I don't think it's for the reason you imagine. China prefers peaceful reunification. They don't want to fight a war if they don't have to. At the same time, peaceful reunification is a core interest of China. Which means that they will go to war, but only if they believe peaceful reunification is no longer possible. So yes they do watch the US to make calculations. But even if…

> China prefers peaceful reunification. The people of Taiwan, just like those of Ukraine do not want to be re-absorbed. > Quite the opposite: they encourage China to go to war, costs be damned, because such foreign support signal that peaceful reunification will become impossible. It already is impossible. I think the world, save Beijing is moving on.

There is little support for reunification in Taiwan and it gets smaller by the day based on China's actions in HK and in the area near Taiwan. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2022/02/07/w...

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#102

Post by mdp2021 »

FooBarWidget wrote: post #86
hueyluey wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not trying to nitpick, but as far as I know, Taiwan was occupied by Japan starting from 1895, so China didn't inherit it in 1911. I guess this shows how unfundamented is the current chinese territorial claim. Xinjiang was for most centuries an independent region or part of a different (usualy turkish) empire. Something similar happened with Tibet. It might make sense to include what's currently Mongolia into the chin…

Well Taiwan was officially given back to China by the US after WW2 ended. So maybe not inherited from Qing, but definitely from ROC. Regarding Xinjiang, the Xinjiang claim is older than the US's claim on its own land so it cannot be more unfundamented than the US as a nation is.

The history of the USA and of Xinjiang do not seem to be easily comparable. A date for "claim" means little both in the historic context and in the context of what constitutes a Nation - a commonality of intents in a society of dwellers.

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#103

Post by rnk »

SenHeng wrote: post #80
FooBarWidget wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. One China means the acknowledgement that the mainland and Taiwan are part of the same country, but there may be disagreement to who the government is. Before the US recognized the PRC government, it recognized the ROC government aka the one in Taiwan, as being the sole legit government of all of China including Taiwan. So the US didn't officially support "Taiwan independence". After the US flipped to PRC, they op…

> The independence notion only came into existance relatively recently. ie. The original generation that considered themselves Chinese has mostly died off, and now the younger generation who consider themselves Taiwanese are slowly taking over.

Yes. Especially now that Taiwan is really a democratic country without it being tacitly controlled by the people and political parties left over from the early days (the KMT). And the destruction of the people of Hong Kong finishes the end of the reunification desire in Taiwan. Young people are naturally horrified about HK and reunification. It's only fools who think that the people in Taiwan want to be part of the "greater Chinese people's country" more than they want freedom.

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#104

Post by Gentil »

Uehreka wrote: post #40
Gentil wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because TSMC still contributes to the manufacturing 90%+ of the semi conductors FOR the whole world. AFAIK, Samsung which is one of their competitor too uses TSMC. So touching Taiwan is an automatic trigger for the entire world. You saw what the pandemic did to the semi conductor industry. Now imagine if a war was happening there. The world could just stop. Literally. Like firesale in Die hard 4. But in universal sca…

The M1 chips are made entirely by TSMC, they reinforce the status quo, they don’t change it. RISC-V is still years from matching ARM performance or cost, and by the time it does, a lot of it will likely be getting manufactured by TSMC. TSMC is really good at making chips, and really good at learning how to make new kinds of chips, so any change will have to come from other fabs getting equally good.

> The M1 chips are made entirely by TSMC, they reinforce the status quo, they don’t change it

Yeah. But with the current geopolitical environment every country is thinking about this. But like I said, ONLY IF they have the motive. Which I also mentioned that the world won't have so as to completely take Taiwan out of the equation.

> RISC-V is still years from matching ARM performance or cost, and by the time it does, a lot of it will likely be getting manufactured by TSMC.

You are probably right. Also RISC-V is used as a support module with Nvidia cards already if I am not wrong. They just are not used as standalone processors. And with M1, I meant ARM in general. But RISC-V is very promising. Like I said, who knows about the future?!

> TSMC is really good at making chips, and really good at learning how to make new kinds of chips, so any change will have to come from other fabs getting equally good.

I don't think me or any country for that matter disapproves that. But with China as it's neighbor, it's just stupid for the world to think everything will be sunshines and butterflies. It's always a good idea to deter from putting everything in one basket.

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#105

Post by cpursley »

Andrew_nenakhov wrote: post #76
samcheng wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if Russia manages to level a few more cities, it's hard to see the past three months as anything but a humiliation of Russia's military might. The damage to Russian military international respect (fear, even) has already been done.

Russian here. I condemn this war but let's be realistic. The extremely poor performance of Russian military at the start of the war is due to the following factors: - extreme underestimation of Ukrainian people and government will to resist the occupation - extremely poor planning and overstretching the communication lines - frontlines in the beginning of the campaign were vastly undermanned for a conventional war (w…

Not Russian but B1 level Russian speaker with lots of experience in that country and armchair general of the 404th chairborn division.

On your 2nd and 3rd points, you might be right. But have you considered the Russian war technique of Maskirovka and military feints?

Maybe (somewhat) surrounding the capital city was pure incompetence or was actually part of the plan, either way, it sufficiency tied up and discombobulated Ukrainian forces and allowed Russia to advance in the Donboss.

It's interesting to read comments from other Westerners who are so totally sure of Russias objectives but have never read Putin's invasion speech (which lays out the stated objectives) or any other Russian officials comments. Because that would be below them; all Russians are alcoholic, corrupt barbarians, don't you know?

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#106

Post by CogitoCogito »

FooBarWidget wrote: post #25
aaaaaaaaata wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Anything Russia does to other states has got absolutely nothing to do with it. Your comment was excellent, and helpful to me. Thanks. I do disagree that China isn't watching US reaction through a million lenses to see how they can best increase their odds rolling over Taiwan with minimal damage. My strongest evidence? Political changes in Hong Kong.

China is definitely watching the US, but I don't think it's for the reason you imagine. China prefers peaceful reunification. They don't want to fight a war if they don't have to. At the same time, peaceful reunification is a core interest of China. Which means that they will go to war, but only if they believe peaceful reunification is no longer possible. So yes they do watch the US to make calculations. But even if…

> They don't want to fight a war if they don't have to.

China doesn't have to fight. They could just accept that the ROC/Taiwan is an independent country (which of course it is whether China accepts it or not). China has no obligation to start a war of conquest.

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#107

Post by vbezhenar »

rocqua wrote: post #35
melling wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia has too much artillery to be humiliated. They are shelling everything and rolling over the dust. “Russia isn't fighting a campaign of attrition, it's waging a war of oblivion.” https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61634050.amp

If you plan a quick win and instead manage to claim 2 provinces after you flattened them, that is humiliating.

Everything has its costs. I'm speculating here, as Russian officials never claimed quick victory. But my theory is that they indeed had a plan to quickly capture big Ukrainian cities (not necessarily Kiev) with help of some traitors. This plan did not work well, probably Ukrainian special services managed to prevent that plan. So they regrouped at east border and slowly demolishing Ukrainian army. It's not humiliating. It's smart. Many wars were lost because warmasters were too stubborn and tried to continue already lost cause. That's not the case here. Right now I don't see any change for Ukraine to survive this war. Their army will be destroyed, Russia apparently is too strong and did not collapse under sanctions and probably can continue its military pressure for months if not years, while Ukrainian front is breaking apart and more soldiers are giving up every day.

There's Russian adage: don't say gop until you jump over. This war is far from ending and early Russian mistakes did not turned into significant issues.

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#108

Post by cpursley »

inglor_cz wrote: post #62
melling wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia has too much artillery to be humiliated. They are shelling everything and rolling over the dust. “Russia isn't fighting a campaign of attrition, it's waging a war of oblivion.” https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61634050.amp

Russia has already been humiliated. The allegedly second strongest army in the world could not defeat a much smaller neighboring country quickly and had to retreat from the proximity of Kyiv and Kharkiv. They do still have their artillery, though, and they are trying to take Donbass. In a very piecemeal fashion, very slowly. They have learnt something from their spring failures. The result of this war depends on how…

> Russia has already been humiliated.

According to whom and compared to what? Russia has employed maybe 20% of their military personnel and gear and are weeks, maybe days, from consolidating and absorbing the Donboss.

Keep in mind that Ukraine is the second largest military in Europe (after Russia) with their own military industrial complex, huge cache of Soviet weapons and the training and intelligence assets of NATO.

Can you name a single successful significant counter offensive (other than the Moskva) by Ukraine?

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#109

Post by cpursley »

futhey wrote: post #90
mensetmanusman wrote: post #2

Unfortunately, China will likely attack Taiwan unless Russia is humiliated.

Russia has been humiliated abroad. Now, they must be humiliated at home. This means Crimea returning to Ukrainian control. That... will require a significantly greater commitment from Nato allies, or the US. Until Nato makes a greater commitment, the Chinese will (correctly) read this as a sign that in the event of a Taiwan invasion, the US will provide military support, but stop before committing troops to enforcing…

> Humiliated abroad

The vast majority of human kind are neutral or pro Russia regarding the situation. Sorry, but the English speaking countries (sans India) and EU are not "the word" despite the sense of superiority and entitlement.

As for Crimea, that ain't never happening. The people there are majority Russian and Tartar and with a very small Ukrainian minority. Not only does Wikipedia tell me that, but I've talked with people there (in person).

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#110

Post by yieldcrv »

rnk wrote: post #100
yieldcrv wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You should think more about what China didn’t do in Macau, to understand China’s actions and motives better. Many people in Hong Kong grasp onto useless documents like the Sino-British Declaration because their actual constitution (the basic law) gave them no assurance to match promises. That constitution always gave the PRC ability to control any and everything there to suppress anything. The appointments always cam…

More important than any sophistry or arguments about the nuances of the agreements around HK is that China has been crushing freedom in HK. That's the problem. Stop doing that. China won't stop because that's the way they remain in power. China can't use its usual excuse that "we brought millions out of poverty through our rule" in Hong Kong, because they were already pretty well off there. The HK economy is going ba…

It is a self-fulfilling prophecy, China is crushing freedoms in Hong Kong because people in Hong Kong were afraid of China crushing freedoms in Hong Kong.

The unrest over the potential use of an extradition bill prompted China to clamp down on nearly everything Hong Kong residents held near and dear and show how powerless the people there are in this reality.

It is also convenient to accelerate the "harmonization" of Hong Kong into the PRC system because many (depending on how you count) places in China are well to do now. They don't need Hong Kong's different system to be a bastion of economic progress, because its like 3% of the GDP now, compared to like 20% during handover.

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