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The Great Decentralization? Geographic shifts and where tech talent is moving

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Re: The Great Decentralization? Geographic shifts and where tech talent is moving

#61

Post by BlargMcLarg »

usrn wrote: post #32
angarg12 wrote: post #4

This year we finally moved to the US after 2 years of Covid-induced delays. We moved to Seattle because it's where my team is based. I'm far from impressed. The housing market is so inaccessible that we had to rent a house about 1 hour commute from the office. I have hardly visited the offices a handful of times since we moved, and every time there is maybe 1 or 2 people there. Also this spring seems to be one of the…

God only knows why we still have net immigration. I guess despite the way minorities and lower classes are "oppressed" we're still better than everywhere else somehow?

The US is still a pretty good place for people with highly desirable skillsets, no / small families and specific mindsets.

If you're Average Joe looking to start a family, a middling job and no assets or inheritance to your name, it's pretty mediocre (though some would argue "well you could learn programming").

Re: The Great Decentralization? Geographic shifts and where tech talent is moving

#62

Post by EB66 »

BlargMcLarg wrote: post #52
EB66 wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem in Seattle is that it's been flooded by highly paid tech workers. Our population has exploded in the past decade (over 21% increase). The city council has pushed through tons of rezoning and construction has been faster here than elsewhere in the country but it can't keep up with demand. So, it may not be polite to point it out, but it's not inaccurate to say that the problem is in fact people like the OP…

And the ridiculous concentration of wealth caused by tech companies able to hire those highly paid tech workers goes without blame? It's fairly inaccurate to present it in a way people like OP are the only issue here.

Of course they're not the only issue -- no one's arguing that.

What we're talking about is the negative reaction from other Seattlites to highly paid newcomers who complain about the weather and high prices.

Re: The Great Decentralization? Geographic shifts and where tech talent is moving

#63

Post by Victerius »

zucked wrote: post #47
angarg12 wrote: post #4

This year we finally moved to the US after 2 years of Covid-induced delays. We moved to Seattle because it's where my team is based. I'm far from impressed. The housing market is so inaccessible that we had to rent a house about 1 hour commute from the office. I have hardly visited the offices a handful of times since we moved, and every time there is maybe 1 or 2 people there. Also this spring seems to be one of the…

Yes, the housing is, by-and-large, a lot cheaper, but the cities are not super walkable (if that's important to you) and the weather is often the opposite of cold and wet - it's hot and muggy. I don't do well with humidity, so a huge swath of the US is out for me. Plugging this tool again because it ate up an hour of my day last time it was posted: https://www.movemap.io/explore/us

Cold and wet weather is great. When climate change renders the southwestern United States and large parts of Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia uninhabitable, people will be ready to kill for the right to live in a cold and wet weather.

Re: The Great Decentralization? Geographic shifts and where tech talent is moving

#64

Post by gedy »

EB66 wrote: post #41
coenhyde wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What a terrible take. You're the kind of NIMBY who creates the problems then blames them on new residents. How about you listen to their problems and solve some of them instead of blaming them for problems they did not create.

The problem in Seattle is that it's been flooded by highly paid tech workers. Our population has exploded in the past decade (over 21% increase). The city council has pushed through tons of rezoning and construction has been faster here than elsewhere in the country but it can't keep up with demand. So, it may not be polite to point it out, but it's not inaccurate to say that the problem is in fact people like the OP…

20% increase in 10 years? Wow what an impossible number to accommodate. /s

This likely points to slow bureaucracies or people fighting change or growth at all costs.

Re: The Great Decentralization? Geographic shifts and where tech talent is moving

#65

Post by kipchak »

EB66 wrote: post #41
coenhyde wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What a terrible take. You're the kind of NIMBY who creates the problems then blames them on new residents. How about you listen to their problems and solve some of them instead of blaming them for problems they did not create.

The problem in Seattle is that it's been flooded by highly paid tech workers. Our population has exploded in the past decade (over 21% increase). The city council has pushed through tons of rezoning and construction has been faster here than elsewhere in the country but it can't keep up with demand. So, it may not be polite to point it out, but it's not inaccurate to say that the problem is in fact people like the OP…

From what I can find it looks like Seattle's growth rate was about 2% annually from the 1980s to 2000, then tapered off to 1.2% from 2000 to 2019.[1] I'm not very familiar with Seattle, but maybe that growth has been extremely localized? [1]https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/23140/seattle/population

Re: The Great Decentralization? Geographic shifts and where tech talent is moving

#66

Post by jmyeet »

I'm glad they looked at climate because for a lot of people it's a huge factor. Some people seem to like but for me the Pacific Northwest is the most depressing place on Earth (outside summer). The Northeast? Less depressing but the winters are harsh.

I expect family is a big factor in wwhere people move, as in people are moving to have some proximity with their extended families. It's just that remote work has allowed this to happen.

But here's another potential factor: the Trump tax "cuts" did three big things to individuals, which is particularly relevant in tech:

1. Raised taxes in the $200k to $500k tax bracket;

2. Ended the longstanding SALT deducation (mostly); and

3. Any personal income tax cuts (unlike the corporate tax cuts) are temporary and are slowly being rolled back.

So consider a software engineer with TC of $500k in CA or NY. You're paying close to 10% of your income in state income taxes and might be paying $30k in property taxes. In addition to losing $80k in taxes, you no longer get a Federal deduction of 33% for those taxes so you can be losing more than 20% of your income to state and local taxes.

Now that same engineer moves to, say, Nevada. State income tax is gone and property taxes are low (because of casinos) so your net pay could be almost $100k higher.

Put another way: that means working in CA for 5 years will net you the same money as working in NV for 4.

The Northeast has already had a longstanding trend of migration to the Sun Belt, so much so that NY lost a congressional seat in apportionment from the 2020 census while Florida gained 1 and Texas gained 2. For non-US people, every 10 years there's a census and based on the results the 435 Congressional seats are distributed. If a state gains or loses enough population they can gain or lose (respectively) Congessional seats. It's actually a big deal.

I'm happy people have the option of living outside a few big urban centers. Some locals are mad at skyrocketing real estate prices. The biggest reason for this is and overall demand shock but migration doesn't help. Still, it's more high-paying jobs in those economies.

Re: The Great Decentralization? Geographic shifts and where tech talent is moving

#67

Post by Swizec »

nopenopenopeno wrote: post #60
Swizec wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As an immigrant I often wonder if America’s economy works so well in spite of or because of its policies. But one thing is clear: Last year I saved more money than I made in my last year in Europe. And that’s while paying rent in downtown SF To give a more surprising comparison - my country’s entire GDP fits into Apple's quarterly profits . The pie is large here.

America’s economy doesn’t work well at all for most people. It only works well for the rich, i.e. those who directly benefit from a higher GDP.

I’m going to assume you’ve never lived in an economy where median wage is $1000/month. Because it sounds like you have no idea what you’re talking about

Everyone benefits from higher GDP. Yes the rich benefit more, but I promise you that everyone being equally destitute is no walk in the park either.

Reading about the economic histories of South America, China, Eastern Europe, and Africa are great places to learn more about how low GDP is terrible for everyone involved.

Re: The Great Decentralization? Geographic shifts and where tech talent is moving

#68

Post by jeffbee »

dragonwriter wrote: post #49
shmatt wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ATL averages about 33% more rain than Seattle Honestly unless OP goes to California, where the housing situation is much worse, or middle of nowhere like Nevada, they're going to be much wetter (albeit in the Summer and not Winter/Spring) in most of the south

> Honestly unless OP goes to California, where the housing situation is much worse, or middle of nowhere like Nevada, they're going to be much wetter A lot of the drier parts of California, if you aren't tied to the LA Basin because you need local work, don't have as much of a housing problem, though. (That's also true of a lot of the wetter parts that you might chose to live in, if you aren't dependent on local work…

You can live like a king in Hanford on a tech salary, except you'd be like the king of Somalia. Not sure if that's the crown I want to wear. You're still paying $400k for a house but now you need private schooling and you have a 3-hour drive to the nearest thing that even resembles culture.

Re: The Great Decentralization? Geographic shifts and where tech talent is moving

#69

Post by EB66 »

kipchak wrote: post #65
EB66 wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem in Seattle is that it's been flooded by highly paid tech workers. Our population has exploded in the past decade (over 21% increase). The city council has pushed through tons of rezoning and construction has been faster here than elsewhere in the country but it can't keep up with demand. So, it may not be polite to point it out, but it's not inaccurate to say that the problem is in fact people like the OP…

From what I can find it looks like Seattle's growth rate was about 2% annually from the 1980s to 2000, then tapered off to 1.2% from 2000 to 2019.[1] I'm not very familiar with Seattle, but maybe that growth has been extremely localized? [1] https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/23140/seattle/population

You're looking at numbers for the Seattle metro area. The story with the city itself is different. The population went from 608k in 2010 to 737k in 2020. That's a huge jump for a city that's geographically constrained and already had no empty land available for development.

Re: The Great Decentralization? Geographic shifts and where tech talent is moving

#70

Post by mhzsh »

zucked wrote: post #47
angarg12 wrote: post #4

This year we finally moved to the US after 2 years of Covid-induced delays. We moved to Seattle because it's where my team is based. I'm far from impressed. The housing market is so inaccessible that we had to rent a house about 1 hour commute from the office. I have hardly visited the offices a handful of times since we moved, and every time there is maybe 1 or 2 people there. Also this spring seems to be one of the…

Yes, the housing is, by-and-large, a lot cheaper, but the cities are not super walkable (if that's important to you) and the weather is often the opposite of cold and wet - it's hot and muggy. I don't do well with humidity, so a huge swath of the US is out for me. Plugging this tool again because it ate up an hour of my day last time it was posted: https://www.movemap.io/explore/us

Well, thanks for eating up a bunch of my time, too. It feels like some of the data its using for hazards is wrong. My current county gets excluded by "avoid hurricanes" and "avoid tornados", where I don't remember there ever being a tornado (definitely nothing major), and hurricane risk is very low (not directly coastal).
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