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Former U.S. congressman, operative pleads guilty to election fraud charges

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Re: Former U.S. congressman, operative pleads guilty to election fraud charges

#781

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't you also have to update your driver's license when moving? Then what is more onerous about it? > requires showing up in person within a month of moving Not during covid by the way. I moved in 2020 and could simply send in the documents by email. Then some time later I had to briefly drop by to get a stamp for my ID, but that was like 5 minutes. > registering to vote is super easy and can be done online in most…

You don’t have to update your driver’s license unless you permanently move from one state to another, and even then not really. It won’t stop working. Sure, lots of things were relaxed during the pandemic. But you have to register in person normally, correct?

Unless you change your primary residency you don't have to do anything in Germany. And registering a secondary residency has tax implications but none regarding voting.

And why do think your German ID card won't work anymore if the address on it is wrong?

Re: Former U.S. congressman, operative pleads guilty to election fraud charges

#782
post #698

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is certainly a history in the US of voting suppression targeted at racial minorities, especially African-Americans. (And although I am indeed not an American, my own country also has a history of racial discrimination in voting, also within living memory–the US is less unique in that regard that you seem to think it is.) However, if working class non-Hispanic whites appear to have been switching, over the last…

I mean just logically the shifting voting habits of a given demographic don’t demonstrate the absence of voter suppression. Those shifting preferences could be for any number of reasons, including suppression itself. We don’t know. What we do know is that there is no evidence of meaningful voter fraud in the US. We also know there is an established history of voter suppression and to a lesser extent election fraud. W…

> Those shifting preferences could be for any number of reasons, including suppression itself. We don’t know.

So, Trump improved his position between 2016 and 2020 in Laredo, Texas, by over 27 percentage points. Two possible explanations:

Explanation (1): He achieved that outcome through the ordinary legitimate means that any politician uses to improve their vote share – adjusting his message to better appeal to that audience, investment in grassroots campaigning, adopting policies which attract those voters, etc

Explanation (2): He achieved that outcome through some form of voter suppression

Some questions:

Question (a): What is the relative probability of Explanation (1) and Explanation (2)?

Question (b): What can we infer from media coverage of this topic as to how most journalists covering it would answer question (a)?

Question (c): Does the answer to question (b) tell us anything about the answer to question (a)?

> With this knowledge I see no reason to enact Voter ID.

I don't support voter ID – but I'm sceptical of claims made by both its proponents and its opponents that the issue would have any significant impact on election outcomes. I think we'd likely get the same election outcomes whether it was enacted or not, and I'm not aware of any hard evidence against that. I think, to a great extent, it is a symbolic issue, a political shibboleth.

Worldwide, there are several models for running elections. The US uses what is called the "executive model", in which the operation of elections is overseen by elected officials (and civil servants who directly report to those elected officials). It also uses a particularly decentralised version of the executive model, in which state and even local officials play a major role in national elections.

Most other English-speaking countries instead use what is called the "independent model", in which elected officials have no direct involvement in running elections, instead they are run by one or more independent government agencies. Australia and Canada are the most directly comparable Anglophone countries to the US, since they both have federal systems (unlike the unitary system used in Ireland and New Zealand, and the devolutionary system of the UK). In both Australia and the Canada, federal elections are fully run by an independent federal agency, while there are separate independent state/provincial agencies used to run state/provincial elections.

I think the widespread lack of faith in the US voting system, found on both sides, is in large part due to its use of the inferior executive model, and switching to the independent model used in most of the rest of the English-speaking world could do a lot to improve public confidence. (There is also a lot to be said for the "judicial model" used in much of Latin America, where elections are run by the judicial branch instead of the executive branch – but I imagine the US would be more open to copying an Anglophone approach to this issue than a Latin American one.)

I realise that having the FEC take over the running of federal elections, like the AEC does in Australia or Elections Canada does in Canada, is probably a non-starter due to constitutional issues. However, if a US state was to adopt a state constitutional amendment establishing a politically independent state agency with sole power over all elections in the state, taking that power away from state and local elected officials–I can't see SCOTUS could possibly object to that.

Re: Former U.S. congressman, operative pleads guilty to election fraud charges

#783

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the US would stop using photo IDs as a bludgeon to keep "the wrong people" from voting, everyone could get on board with requiring it. That has always been the real blocker. I do like postal mail. I've yet to see a convincing argument that the coercion risk is substantial enough to offset the other benefits. Voting slowly at my living room table is awesome .

The US doesn’t “use photo IDs as a bludgeon to keep ‘the wrong people’ from voting”.

Some courts seem to disagree, wasn't there a verdict in a federal (?) court calling voter ID requirements in some state to target with "surgical precision" a certain demographic?

Re: Former U.S. congressman, operative pleads guilty to election fraud charges

#784

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't you also have to update your driver's license when moving? Then what is more onerous about it? > requires showing up in person within a month of moving Not during covid by the way. I moved in 2020 and could simply send in the documents by email. Then some time later I had to briefly drop by to get a stamp for my ID, but that was like 5 minutes. > registering to vote is super easy and can be done online in most…

You don’t have to update your driver’s license unless you permanently move from one state to another, and even then not really. It won’t stop working. Sure, lots of things were relaxed during the pandemic. But you have to register in person normally, correct?

> But you have to register in person.

Partially. You can fill out and send all documents online or by mail -- at least in the city I moved to. Then once everything is done you need to make an appointment to stop by and pick up your address sticker and certificate.

Having some in person part for ID things seems unavoidable, but nothing onerous.

Re: Former U.S. congressman, operative pleads guilty to election fraud charges

#785

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's nothing there; tootie is just slandering

You'll have to enable "showdead" (the dropdown on your user page here https://news.ycombinator.com/user?id=kfrzcode ) before you can see it. I am able to see the comment they are referencing.

TIL thx

Re: Former U.S. congressman, operative pleads guilty to election fraud charges

#786
post #718

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. Specifically, pro-Democrat media and organisations have spent the last several years arguing that measures to make fraud like this harder, such as unregistering people who aren't living in that state anymore and checking ID when voting, are themselves election rigging. There are endless headlines counting every single entry removed from the electoral roll or even just marked for extra checking as a vote suppress…

> such as unregistering people who aren't living in that state anymore and checking ID when voting, are themselves election rigging Unregistering has had some serious problems of hitting active voters in the past, though I'm not an expert there. But I can easily say that checking ID, without first making sure valid voters can easily get the needed ID, is unacceptable.

> But I can easily say that checking ID, without first making sure valid voters can easily get the needed ID, is unacceptable.

Agreed. The issue is the Democratic solution is to never ID, instead of coming up with a way to easily get people IDs. That makes me rather suspicious of their motives.

Re: Former U.S. congressman, operative pleads guilty to election fraud charges

#787
post #670

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, although to the grand-parent it's not clear how guns would have "helped" had you wanted to leave. I mean, who exactly would you shoot? And after shooting them how would the outcome improve? If you go to the airport how do you find a plane big enough to take you somewhere? Or enough people to prepare it to fly? And when you get to where you are going, how do you avoid getting arrested? Ditto a boat. And a boat to…

You seem to underestimate the intelligence of government officials. They would not put themselves in harm's way to stop thousands of armed people from doing what they wish to do. No shots need be fired by anyone. No Australian government agent is going to shoot fellow Australians, or be shot by fellow Australians, to enforce such an absurd prohibition on free and peaceful movement. Such unilateral authoritarian nonse…

>> No Australian government agent is going to shoot fellow Australians, or be shot by fellow Australians, to enforce such an absurd prohibition on free and peaceful movement.

So then if Australians wanted to mass-disobey the stay-at-home order they could. As you say "No Australian government agent is going to shoot fellow Australians." So guns or no guns, if there was sufficient demand citizens who wanted to could simply have moved around. (Lacking planes and boats travel out of Australia would likely still be restricted.)

By your own point, it's not lack of guns that caused the population to follow the guidelines. It was rather a respect for authority, and the rule of law, that kept the masses at home. Sure a few would reject those guidelines, and be arrested, but that is literally the "few" - not the majority.

>> Such unilateral authoritarian nonsense can only occur when the majority of the population is disarmed first.

I'm not sure I agree. There is plenty of unilateral authority in places where people have guns.

>> You'll note that the same thing happened in New York City during the 2004 RNC, during Bush's term and Bush's invasion of Iraq. There were unlawful mass arrests by NYPD of thousands of peaceful protesters, who were kettled and housed with limited food and water for 24-48h in large high-density camps along the river. Most were released without charges several days later (when the RNC was over) which, years later, resulted in hundreds of millions of dollars of taxpayer money being paid out as settlement for the illegal actions of the police.

Indeed the police committed illegal actions, and have paid out well for it. Perhaps they will learn from that, perhaps not.

>> This never would have happened if the protest were not approximately 0% armed; the police would not have attempted to kettle a crowd where even a few dozen were able to defend themselves from police violence.

um. So you're saying they were reasonably sure that out of thousands of protesters there weren't "a few dozen" who were armed? I agree that sounds reasonable. but if there had been say 100 armed those 100 would have opened fire on the police, and everyone would just have gone home? Given the follow up from another incident (Jan 6) I suspect anyone who fired would have been speedily prosecuted. Anyone who even brandished a gun would have been prosecuted. A bunch of people (likely from both sides) would be dead - and that's somehow a _better_ outcome?

On the other hand it doesn't really matter if the protesters were armed or not - ultimately it was the _perception_ that they were not which allowed them to corral the protest?

>> This is why Hong Kong no longer has a free press, fair elections, or due process. They were forced to "fight" well-armed authoritarians with nothing more than umbrellas and laser pointers. Such a battle simply would not have happened in the first place were the population sufficiently armed. Police are not stupid; they will only engage with violence where they are nearly certain not to lose or be harmed (as we observed recently in Texas).

I think you perhaps are miss-conflating local police in a small Texas town, to the discipline and willingness of well trained armed forces of authoritarian regimes. I don't think hand-guns in Hong Kong would have made the slightest bit of difference to the Chinese authorities in Hong Kong.

>> A well-armed population keeps the state from overstepping its bounds without a single shot being fired.

That's certainly a point of view, and it's obviously a very popular view with a lot of US citizens. I respect that you have that point of view, and respect your right to have that point of view. Personally I don't see that your view is accurate to the reality in the US, much less anywhere else.

It's widely reported that at least 40% of Americans believe the election was rigged. Whether they are correct or not is irrelevant. If 40% of a population _believe_ that democracy has been usurped, and are armed to the teeth, and yet clearly there has not been an (armed) uprising then I'm wondering what has to happen for said armed population to actually take action? Even the Jan 6 incident is laughable for how small, unarmed, and ineffective it was. Apparently there were lots of conspirators, much planning behind the scenes, all sorts of machinations in play, and yet all we got was some folk wandering around a building, then going home. If the outcome of the 2nd amendment is Jan 6, well that seems like a wasted effort.

Re: Former U.S. congressman, operative pleads guilty to election fraud charges

#788

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Even changing the outcome of a Presidential election doesn't require any kind of sweeping, nationwide fraud campaign. Just enough well-placed ones Were that to have happened, analysis of the voting results would show a divergence in results in those “well placed” areas. For a presidential race, there are a lot of eyes on this comparing demographic data with vote totals. For instance, in 2020 there were some allegat…

> Were that to have happened, analysis of the voting results would show a divergence in results in those “well placed” areas. Why didn't that sort of analysis find fraud in Philadelphia in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018? How are you so certain of its infallibility given it's apparent inability to find fraud like this?

> Why didn't that sort of analysis find fraud in Philadelphia in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018?

You can’t look at votes a local candidate for city office received in Massachusetts or Iowa because those candidates are only on the ballot in Philadelphia. The type of national vote trend analysis I’m describing only exists for national elections.

Re: Former U.S. congressman, operative pleads guilty to election fraud charges

#789

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Even changing the outcome of a Presidential election doesn't require any kind of sweeping, nationwide fraud campaign. Just enough well-placed ones Were that to have happened, analysis of the voting results would show a divergence in results in those “well placed” areas. For a presidential race, there are a lot of eyes on this comparing demographic data with vote totals. For instance, in 2020 there were some allegat…

Wasn’t 2020 election was decided by 5 states and within them no more than a dozen counties?

No. It was decided by votes in the swing states. There wasn’t a swing in votes in “a dozen counties”. Votes trended toward the democratic candidate across demographically similar counties in all 5 states , and also trended the same way in states that were not critical to the election (for instance, in Texas: “Biden improved on Hillary Clinton's 2016 vote share by 3.24%, giving him the largest percentage in the state by a Democratic presidential candidate since Jimmy Carter carried the state in 1976. Trump's 5.58-point margin of victory was also the narrowest for a Republican since 1996.” - Wikipedia )

Re: Former U.S. congressman, operative pleads guilty to election fraud charges

#790

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So out them?

I have no proof they're still doing that now. That'd be insane and reputation ruining for myself if they are indeed legitimately elected. Dynasties work in American politics especially at the local level. I've been asked to work on at least 2 of their campaigns at different times but It's not been something I'm interested in anymore. Me and the other folks not in public office now all came from families that could ba…

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