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Germany paying $5.5B for Intel fab

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Re: Germany paying $5.5B for Intel fab

#411
post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is very important for national stability. A highly-interconnected global economy is arguably better at securing international stability.

The more interconnected the global economy is, the more single points of failure there are. No thanks, I'd rather society be more resilient.

> more single points of failure

Multiple single points of failure is an oxymoron. Either there is one point of failure and it's "single", or there are multiple and by definition no longer "single".

Re: Germany paying $5.5B for Intel fab

#412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When China attacks Taiwan, the 1st world is fucked. China would be shooting themselves in the foot by invading, because it would equally fuck them. I've read in may places that as soon as China invades, Taiwan will blow up all the fabs and supporting supply lines. So even if China takes control of Taiwan, the semiconductor industry will be a smoldering pile of nothingness. This article[1] does a great job in descri…

I've heard the "TSMC self-destruct" story a lot, but I haven't found a source. All I can find are people repeating the claim. Is there a source anywhere?

It's been internet meme for few years when TSMC node lead was evident, and recently someone at US Army War College picked up on concept and wrote a paper suggesting TW should blow up their own fabs to deter PRC invasion when PRC had eyes on invading TW before semiconductors even existed. I guess TW media saw this as serious traction and pushed some articles basically saying "leave TSMC alone". The idea is flawed because preserving TSMC is the only barginning chip for TW, especially post war reconstruction. It's the difference between rebuilding from a advanced/developed economy to rebuilding from a agrarian one. Even with chip act and all the expansion on going, TW is projected to hold onto 90% of advanced node production for a while. It's not in TW/US interest to burn this. Nor PRC but direction of profits and reliant industry means it affects west more. Imagine being the TW leadership asking to be evacuated to US for protection after destroying supply chains of US companies worth trillions. Guessing in 5-10 years when PRC has semi sufficient domestic production, even if a few nodes behind, the meme will be PRC will preemptively destroy TSMC to make TW less desirable to protect.

Re: Germany paying $5.5B for Intel fab

#414

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Subsidizing an American company is not necessary for Germany's security. In fact, it undermines it.

There will be a huge knowledge transfer into Germany during this process. Fab's are fabulously intricate and difficult to run. $5.5 billion to teach your populace how to make chips? Worth it.

>> $5.5 billion to teach your populace how to make chips? Worth it.

Germany already has advance chip fabrication - see Global Foundries (formerly AMD fab). It's not EUV, but even Intel still needs to figure out how to make those chips.

Re: Germany paying $5.5B for Intel fab

#415

What is even funnier is that Intel has plenty money and is profitable and dividend paying even though nearly all of Intel's fabs are in the US (and thus suffering from the high cost level compared to Asia is a part justification for these subsidies).

They lost $ 20 billion in the last year.

Intel earnings per share is still positive. Do you mean they made less than before?

Re: Germany paying $5.5B for Intel fab

#416
post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That was the main argument for global trade already in 1914. France was Germany's most important commercial partner, and vice-versa. All German rifles had stocks made from French walnut wood! All French locomotives had German-made tubing! This stupid mantra was repeated ad nauseam after 1991, too, with silly op-eds from Friedman and friends about how two countries with McDonald joints in both can't be at war and simi…

A connected world is not a guaranteed sufficient condition for peace. But that does not mean it's not a necessary condition for peace. One could argue that without economic interconnectivity, Europe could have fought WW1 much earlier, or would have had wars much more often.

Easily disproven by all the countries that were not constantly at war despite low connectedness.

In the (absurd) limit: There was no war between Australia and the Roman Empire in 100BC.

More practical: existence of a Cold War in the 20th century.

Re: Germany paying $5.5B for Intel fab

#417

Wow. These deals amaze me. Imagine you got given subsidies to live somewhere. I'm not talking about your wages - I'm talking about something extra. Well that is a direct equivalent here. How any governance structure can think this is ok boggles the mind. Is it not clear how we already live in a fascist state - where government + corporations are working together at the people's expense? $5.5 billion.

So what's your plan when China makes good on their promise of trying to take Taiwan and either seize or inadvertently destroy TSMC's 54% share of global chip market[1]? German automotive industry would grind to a halt as they run out of chips. Better yet, if America comes to the aid of Taiwan, China would likely strike US bases in Japan and Korea, threatening even more of the global chip supply. [1]: https://www.tech…

You're right! Give Intel and Tesla much more!! lol

Re: Germany paying $5.5B for Intel fab

#418

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Human rights is more than just political rights or speech. Hundreds of millions of Chinese lifted out of poverty is a huge win for human rights. When you're poor, you're not free. Having grown up with dirty streets and beggars, you can't possibly imagine how big a deal it is for me to see my hometown transforming into a modern metropolis, and how my grandparents-in-law (in a different city, in a rural area) finaly ha…

Why the false dichotomy? Does political freedom automatically contradict with economic prosperity for some reason now? Born and raised in China, I fail to see how the last 10 years of erosion in freedom has yielded any better results economically. Please don’t buy the government propaganda that legitimizes everything from stupid to evil as a price that has to be paid to raise people out of poverty.

Nowhere did I say that economic freedom and political freedom are mutually exclusive. What I do protest however is the idea that only political freedom can be considered a legitimate form of freedom. I am making the case that:

- economic freedom is an equally valid form of freedom.

- societies can make up their own minds on what sort of freedoms they value most.

As for "erosion of freedom in the last 10 years in China": this is the mainstream western narrative, but the Chinese people don't view it that way. By and large, they view China as way better off now than 10 years ago. All the data and on the ground talks show this. What else is there it argue about?

It sounds like you are like me, born and raised in China but having lived in the west for a long time. If you live in the west and all you hear is liberal thought and western ideas on political freedom, then after a while it seems like that is all there is that matters.

But I am saying no: what we think here don't matter at all, what the people there think is all that matters. We here can consider China's government illegitimate for whatever reason, but that doesn't make them illegitimate. The Chinese people have way more right to consider what sort of government is legitimate, for whatever reason they want, even reasons that we don't agree with.

Re: Germany paying $5.5B for Intel fab

#419

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's because Chinese define democracy by whether they believe their government works for their interest and whether they yield good results, not by how their government is elected. And here is the crux of China's zero-covid policy. Follow the Western lead and run covid run its course? That would be millions of deaths even with Omicron being not as deadly, simply because Sinovax is nowhere near as effective as the m…

Actually, Sinovac work as well as Pfizer when it comes to preventing hospitilization and death, but requires sufficient boosters. This is shown by this research paper: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.03.22.22272769v... The "Chinese vaccine don't work" talking point is a bad faith myth created by western mainstream media, which misrepresented this study by comparing single- or two-dose Sinovac with 3-dose…

> The "Chinese vaccine don't work" talking point is a bad faith myth created by western mainstream media, which misrepresented this study by comparing single- or two-dose Sinovac with 3-dose Pfizer. This sort of misrepresentation is unfortunately common practice in mainstream western media.

This isn’t true, and if you look at table 2 in the paper you link it is obvious. With equal dosing, SinoVac is less effective than Pfizer in basically all categories.

SinoVac doesn’t start to have _any_ protection against mild/moderate disease until 3 doses, and even then, it’s significantly worse than Pfizer. It’s hard to know how that relates to disease transmission, but it’s probably fair to guess that less protection against mild/moderate disease means increased viral loads and faster disease spread.

Re: Germany paying $5.5B for Intel fab

#420

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nikon and Canon, in that order. Neither has managed to produce EUV machines, but they were somewhat competitive at higher nodes.

That's really interesting, I had not heard those names in this space before. I would have expected Applied Materials. Maybe Nikon and Canon are suppliers of optics to the more industry specific companies?

I think historically it's been a challenge mostly related to precision optics, given that semi production is more or less like exposing photographic paper from a negative, through a lens using a light source.

With EUV the challenge is the crazy difficulty of generating the required light source at the right intensity and focusing it. At that wavelength things behave differently, to say the least.

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