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Carmakers feel chip crisis easing

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Re: Carmakers feel chip crisis easing

#201

Post by jdhzzz »

walrus01 wrote: post #63
csours wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Disclosure: I work for GM. Anything expressed here is solely my own opinion and experience. I think each statement is true. Context: for ages, OEMs (the factory) have had a belief that Americans will not wait to buy a car. There's also a bit of a prisoner's dilemma: if any automaker wanted to trim inventories, the customer could go to a competing automaker's lot and buy today. Since customers will not wait to buy a c…

> Context: for ages, OEMs (the factory) have had a belief that Americans will not wait to buy a car. On the contrary, we recently added a 3rd car, and it ended up being a $4000 used Toyota Camry. My first choice would have been a Corolla or civic but none were available at a reasonable price, condition and mileage. Due to the well known rise in used car prices. It's in good enough condition and meets all the requirem…

Agreed. I'm firmly in the boat of "expensive things own you" so I avoid owning them. I do try to take care of what I have but don't obsess over things that can and do happen.

That said. I did get rid of a perfectly good 2002 Camry to buy a Mustang Mach e about 14 months ago. It was pure indulgence and I'm still smitten. I try to take care of it, but don't park across 2 spaces an extra 200 meters away while at the grocery.

Re: Carmakers feel chip crisis easing

#202

Post by nradov »

jstream67 wrote: post #172
CameronNemo wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really hope an electric car model will take up the mantle for reliability and repair ability. Toyota is lagging hard in the EV space. Maybe those Chevy Bolts will last a while? Or the Kia EVs? Probably the F150s, but I'd prefer a compact.

That would probably be Tesla? I suppose it depends on your definition of repair-ability. Telsa has a high degree of parts compatibility and seems able to keep even the older 2012 era Model S repaired. There are a lot of high mileage Teslas out there. Most of Tesla's negative reputation seems to be people complaining about fit and finish (paint, panel gaps). The actual mechanical reliability seems to be quite higher t…

No, the data shows that Tesla vehicles generally have terrible reliability. A Toyota Prius hybrid is far more mechanically complex than any Tesla EV, yet the Prius is far more reliable on average.

http://www.truedelta.com/car-reliability

But Tesla still sells well for other reasons, so apparently they don't have to care about product quality.

Re: Carmakers feel chip crisis easing

#203

Post by okaram »

staticman2 wrote: post #178
argonaut wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm all for frugality, but with a newer car you're getting vastly improved crash safety. Over the years crash safety ratings have gotten tougher and tougher. You can browse the IIHS crash rating history for the Camry (or any other car) and you can often observe that when the IIHS introduces a new test, cars often perform poorly on it (high likelihood of injury) initially, but get better later on. https://www.iihs.org…

That doesn't show you are getting vastly improved crash safety. Only looking at injury data in the real world would show that. It's my understanding new cars are not significantly safer than cars from 10 years ago.

I haven't found the safety data, but was very surprised when my new car was way cheaper to insure than my old one. I assume the insurance companies have the data.

This may not be safer as in better crash resilience, but safer as in you have a backup camera, and side sensors for changing lanes.

Re: Carmakers feel chip crisis easing

#204

Post by bluGill »

jiveturkey wrote: post #108
agensaequivocum wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I placed an order for a Sienna a couple of months ago. However, it's more of getting put in line for something similar that is allocated to the dealer. The more specific, the longer the wait is.

For Toyota, there are no custom orders. You wait until the dealer gets a specific allocation. I imagine that this is due to their precisely tuned JIT manufacturing? For many other brands, your custom order goes to the factory when you make some small commitment.

JIT can allow customization. Toyota doesn't want to work that way, but others do. John Deere (the company I work for) makes everything to order, when you place your order you are buying a spot on the assembly line for the options you want. We can't even make all the combinationally possible options in a single year for many products (big car makers have much larger volumes). Whatever options you want is what we will put on yours.

In order to pull that off our lines have to be flexible. Some options require a special jig, so we have larger factories to put all the jigs near the line, and we allow time for the person at the station to get the right jig out and store it away when done. We could produce product a little faster if there was just one jig on the line, thus the smaller line could move faster (or more likely use that space for more stations), switching the jigs out monthly. It doesn't make sense for us to do that, but for Toyota is probably does. (I'm told Honda has automated the jig replacement so any line can produce anything - but this limits what they can make)

Re: Carmakers feel chip crisis easing

#205

Post by elzbardico »

I have an email account without MFA enabled with encrypted files containing stuff like recovery codes, password manager secrets and other essential stuff like that.

I never use this account for anything else and never send emails from it (other than for itself to store new items), and the account name itself is kind of a passkey. Years later and I still haven't received spam on it.

As long as doesn't fuck me, looks like a sensible last resort to the failure of all other backups.

Of course, not living in a house made of wood and cardboard also helps.

Re: Carmakers feel chip crisis easing

#206

Post by bluGill »

Aloha wrote: post #72
csours wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Disclosure: I work for GM. Anything expressed here is solely my own opinion and experience. I think each statement is true. Context: for ages, OEMs (the factory) have had a belief that Americans will not wait to buy a car. There's also a bit of a prisoner's dilemma: if any automaker wanted to trim inventories, the customer could go to a competing automaker's lot and buy today. Since customers will not wait to buy a c…

I wish dealers made it easier to order cars, before the supply shortage, I couldn't get a dealer to place an order for exactly what I wanted, which was invariably never what was stocked. I'd rather return to a build to order model, with greater variety of configuration options. What I wanted was in a color not commonly stocked, with an unusual interior color, and the upgraded engine, with all the packages - but witho…

> I think you'd see more customers move to ordering, if it was an option.

Dealers AND auto makers don't like that because some people will place an order and then the next day cancel it. If the dealer instead puts them in a car that is "close enough" most people will keep the car even though it isn't perfect. They do lose customers like you who are very specific about what they want, but they gain more. (or so they think)

Re: Carmakers feel chip crisis easing

#207

Post by jstream67 »

nradov wrote: post #202
jstream67 wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That would probably be Tesla? I suppose it depends on your definition of repair-ability. Telsa has a high degree of parts compatibility and seems able to keep even the older 2012 era Model S repaired. There are a lot of high mileage Teslas out there. Most of Tesla's negative reputation seems to be people complaining about fit and finish (paint, panel gaps). The actual mechanical reliability seems to be quite higher t…

No, the data shows that Tesla vehicles generally have terrible reliability. A Toyota Prius hybrid is far more mechanically complex than any Tesla EV, yet the Prius is far more reliable on average. http://www.truedelta.com/car-reliability But Tesla still sells well for other reasons, so apparently they don't have to care about product quality.

I'm having a hard time navigating that site and getting any data out of it. Is it considered a reliable source of information? It seems to only have data for the first generation Model 3 from 2018. They also seems to count stuff like replacement of the 12v battery.

The writeups of high mileage Tesla's that I have read have not mentioned very many repairs - and that seems to be the general consensus on the owner's forums.

Note that software updates are also considered 'recalls' on Teslas now.

one data point on a high mileage model 3 : https://electrek.co/2020/09/26/tesla-model-3-high-mileage-ex...

Re: Carmakers feel chip crisis easing

#208

Post by gwbas1c »

csours wrote: post #8
RyanShook wrote: post #2

I saw an article recently saying that dealerships and car makers want to keep inventories low because they like the post-covid margins they're experiencing. When I paid 5k over msrp a few months ago the salesperson claimed they wanted more inventory because salespeople were unable to hit the volume goals they have. Not sure who to believe but I'm sure the truth lies somewhere in between.

Disclosure: I work for GM. Anything expressed here is solely my own opinion and experience. I think each statement is true. Context: for ages, OEMs (the factory) have had a belief that Americans will not wait to buy a car. There's also a bit of a prisoner's dilemma: if any automaker wanted to trim inventories, the customer could go to a competing automaker's lot and buy today. Since customers will not wait to buy a c…

> OEMs (the factory) have had a belief that Americans will not wait to buy a car

It's really contextual. If your current car was in an accident, you will need a new one ASAP. On the other hand, if your current car is working okay, why not wait until you get exactly what you want?

What's driven me to pick from inventory is immediate need. In the past, I came across good deals in inventory that a dealer was looking to move; and I really needed to replace my car. (Car died, putting too many miles on a lease, car wouldn't pass smog.) Now, I've replaced cars because I was afraid they'll break down on me at some point in the indefinite future, so I just order a Tesla about a year or two before I think I'll need it.

Perhaps used cars will fill the need for people who just really need/want a car now?

Re: Carmakers feel chip crisis easing

#209

Post by bluGill »

lettergram wrote: post #64
ryanSrich wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Idk where you live, but paying over MSRP is unnecessary where I live (tier 2 US city) unless you’re looking at a very high end car ($80k+). Most dealerships near me that priced gouged had to change course pretty quick. I bought 2 vehicles during the pandemic, both at the same dealership, both at MSRP. I think most people who pay over either don’t know other dealerships will negotiate to MSRP, or they just really want…

I have yet to pay MSRP for a new car. Twice, Ive gone in on Christmas Eve or New Years and make the guy wait around until he offers an employee discount. I’ve also gotten a discount (5% under MSRP) for being associated with a university which purchases in bulk from the given dealership. In one case I made the guy go into their system and show me I was buying it at cost to the dealership. People just don’t know how to…

> I think you'd see more customers move to ordering, if it was an option.

That is dishonest. A dealer needs to make his pay. You took his time, they need to make money for it.

Of course it works out because dealers know that you know what they paid (edmunds, kelly blue book, and a few others I can't remember) will tell you the exact numbers, and everyone knows that. Dealers just have found other sneaky ways to get their money instead. It is people like you are refuse to allow a simple honest profit margin that force all the evil financing junk that dealers pull instead.

Re: Carmakers feel chip crisis easing

#210

Post by dougmwne »

csours wrote: post #8
RyanShook wrote: post #2

I saw an article recently saying that dealerships and car makers want to keep inventories low because they like the post-covid margins they're experiencing. When I paid 5k over msrp a few months ago the salesperson claimed they wanted more inventory because salespeople were unable to hit the volume goals they have. Not sure who to believe but I'm sure the truth lies somewhere in between.

Disclosure: I work for GM. Anything expressed here is solely my own opinion and experience. I think each statement is true. Context: for ages, OEMs (the factory) have had a belief that Americans will not wait to buy a car. There's also a bit of a prisoner's dilemma: if any automaker wanted to trim inventories, the customer could go to a competing automaker's lot and buy today. Since customers will not wait to buy a c…

That all sounds nice in theory when all manufacturers had constrained inventories and consumers were being told about this once in a generation car shortage. But back in normal times, if one manufacturer always has cars on the lot in your choice of colors at 3k below MSRP and your previously preferred brand has no cars on the lot in black only with a 2 month lead time for 5k over MSRP, guess what, your brand preferences are going to change!
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