Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020) • Hacker News Board

Re: Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

#21

Post by monocasa » Sat, Jun 04, 2022, 9:05 PM UTC

adam_arthur wrote: post #14

oldgradstudent wrote: post #5

Is there even a shred of evidence that the housing crisis is a result of higher construction costs? Or is the Fed trying to draw attention away from the catastrophic impact of its zero interest and other policies on the massive increase in asset prices?

Population is flat over the last two years, while housing units are up and the construction rate is all time high. There is no crisis, just rampant speculation that ate through active inventory. The actual data is very clear on this (FRED), despite the word of mouth "shortage" narrative. Now that the narrative is turning, inventory is skyrocketing as you would expect, and we will be in a glut within 6 months. Look at…

Newborns aren't generally buying houses; the population was growing 25 years ago.

Re: Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

#22

Post by adam_arthur » Sat, Jun 04, 2022, 9:06 PM UTC

epistasis wrote: post #19

adam_arthur wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Population is flat over the last two years, while housing units are up and the construction rate is all time high. There is no crisis, just rampant speculation that ate through active inventory. The actual data is very clear on this (FRED), despite the word of mouth "shortage" narrative. Now that the narrative is turning, inventory is skyrocketing as you would expect, and we will be in a glut within 6 months. Look at…

But is there anything else that might have changed over the past two years thay might add some nuance to it? Such as massive shifts in where people want to live, how much space they want, etc. Looking just at the past two years ignores them past 14 years since the 2008 crisis, from which housing construction is just barely beginning to recover. And houses under construction is not completed house construction rate; e…

Inventory is not the same as structural supply. That's the big mistake many make, and inventory can very quickly accelerate back to a glut when conditions change (few months).

There is an element of changing preferences, but city centers also up greatly in price. Can't be the whole story

Re: Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

#23

Post by adam_arthur » Sat, Jun 04, 2022, 9:07 PM UTC

epistasis wrote: post #20

adam_arthur wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yup, I can cite as needed when the angry comments show up. Too many with a vested belief in the narrative.

You are preventing an extremely selective and unrepresentative view of the stats.

Prove me wrong. Show me the stat for housing units per capita. Housing units per working age person is an all time high.

Show me the stats for housing units per household. Hint, it's the same as the year 2000 and in line with historically normal levels. 1.1 housing units per household

Show me the stat for rate of construction relative to population growth. Hint, it's at an all time high.

Show me the demographic trends? Hint, it's towards flat or negative population growth, with most boomers dying over the next 10y, and each successive generation being smaller than the last.

Where are your stats? Inventory, which has nothing to do with actual supply? What happened after the generationally low inventory of the 2000s?

Anyone holding to that peg as confirmation of anything is in for a rude awakening

Re: Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

#24

Post by TedShiller » Sat, Jun 04, 2022, 9:11 PM UTC

epistasis wrote: post #15

TedShiller wrote: post #6

There is no housing crisis.

There's not a crisis if you already own your home and are collecting those sweet sweet land rents. And by denying the existence of others' problems, those who own land get to collect ever higher economic rents. But for everybody else, yes there's a huge housing crisis.

I can’t afford a lot of things. I don’t call it a crisis.

Re: Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

#25

Post by zamfi » Sat, Jun 04, 2022, 9:12 PM UTC

adam_arthur wrote: post #14

oldgradstudent wrote: post #5

Is there even a shred of evidence that the housing crisis is a result of higher construction costs? Or is the Fed trying to draw attention away from the catastrophic impact of its zero interest and other policies on the massive increase in asset prices?

Population is flat over the last two years, while housing units are up and the construction rate is all time high. There is no crisis, just rampant speculation that ate through active inventory. The actual data is very clear on this (FRED), despite the word of mouth "shortage" narrative. Now that the narrative is turning, inventory is skyrocketing as you would expect, and we will be in a glut within 6 months. Look at…

All of this is true, but...housing markets are extremely regional. In the SF Bay Area, for example, despite much more new construction, there is still not nearly enough housing being built to satisfy demand, and as a result prices are driven extremely high. In other parts of the US, there is much more housing supply and relatively low demand, making housing more affordable.

Nationwide stats hide a lot of regional realities.

Re: Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

#26

Post by mistrial9 » Sat, Jun 04, 2022, 9:13 PM UTC

jschveibinz wrote: post #2

According to this resource ( https://www.newhomesource.com/learn/stick-built-vs-modular-h... ): - Modular home construction is an $11 billion industry, growing at 8.5% per year - The cost of modular/factory vs. stick built construction is about a 10-20% savings. On a $500k home, that’s going to be less than $25k difference in price. That’s not the problem. Additionally from this source ( https://blog.lotnetwork.com/l…

not a coincidence that the Federal Housing and Urban Development efforts have been, I argue, as close to third world corrupt as it comes, in the USA.

Re: Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

#27

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Jun 04, 2022, 9:17 PM UTC

zamfi wrote: post #25

adam_arthur wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Population is flat over the last two years, while housing units are up and the construction rate is all time high. There is no crisis, just rampant speculation that ate through active inventory. The actual data is very clear on this (FRED), despite the word of mouth "shortage" narrative. Now that the narrative is turning, inventory is skyrocketing as you would expect, and we will be in a glut within 6 months. Look at…

All of this is true, but...housing markets are extremely regional. In the SF Bay Area, for example, despite much more new construction, there is still not nearly enough housing being built to satisfy demand, and as a result prices are driven extremely high. In other parts of the US, there is much more housing supply and relatively low demand, making housing more affordable. Nationwide stats hide a lot of regional rea…

[deleted]

Re: Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

#28

Post by akamaka » Sat, Jun 04, 2022, 9:19 PM UTC

For a good laugh, read the conclusion of the paper, which sounds like it was written in the year 1960, when inner cities were crumbing, and imagines that rural areas will get better public transit when the poor escape the cities they are “trapped in”:

There is a literature that asks why the poor live in cities. One answer provided is that transportation options are much better in cities than rural areas and small towns. But what stops public transportation from expanding upon the arrival of new residents?

A more important reason for why the poor live in cities, it seems, is that many low-income households are “trapped” in cities by the high cost of constructing housing in rural areas and small towns.

Re: Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

#29

Post by zeraynor » Sat, Jun 04, 2022, 9:20 PM UTC

TedShiller wrote: post #24

epistasis wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's not a crisis if you already own your home and are collecting those sweet sweet land rents. And by denying the existence of others' problems, those who own land get to collect ever higher economic rents. But for everybody else, yes there's a huge housing crisis.

I can’t afford a lot of things. I don’t call it a crisis.

If housing was one of them you'd probably consider it a crisis.

Re: Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

#30

Post by adam_arthur » Sat, Jun 04, 2022, 9:20 PM UTC

monocasa wrote: post #21

adam_arthur wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Population is flat over the last two years, while housing units are up and the construction rate is all time high. There is no crisis, just rampant speculation that ate through active inventory. The actual data is very clear on this (FRED), despite the word of mouth "shortage" narrative. Now that the narrative is turning, inventory is skyrocketing as you would expect, and we will be in a glut within 6 months. Look at…

Newborns aren't generally buying houses; the population was growing 25 years ago.

Housing units per working age person is at an all time high and increasing quickly.

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/3/29/50377332-1...

On mobile now, but you can confirm the stats on FRED