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Kurzweil's rebuttal to Paul Allen

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Re: Kurzweil's rebuttal to Paul Allen

#121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would say that strong AI could appear sooner than otherwise with faster hardware. This is because, the earliest algorithms for strong AI are likely to be flawed and imperfect. These imperfections can be compensated for by faster processing. Think of the earlier chess playing algorithms. Although Deep Blue was able to defeat Gary Kasparov, the algorithms themselves were relatively primitive compared to modern chess…

You make an excellent point about how early imperfections in the algorithms could be fixed as they evolve through feedback, and that this step-process running faster would get us the desired (evolved) algorithms quicker. But couldn't we accomplish this with distributed processing rather than faster hardware?

I think distributed processing is another form of faster hardware. It is certainly more operations per unit time. Evolutionary algorithms are interesting because they are able to exploit parallel processing better than most. Evolution amounts to a type of heuristic tree search, where once an algorithm has found a solution to a problem, the knowledge is persisted and shared with other algorithms.

Later algorithms can be run on lesser hardware because they don't have to retread the same territory as their ancestors; they only have to search the space that hasn't already been examined. As the saying goes, they search "smarter, not harder".

Re: Kurzweil's rebuttal to Paul Allen

#122
post #118
post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And that comment about the Deepwater Horizon not being able to drill closer to the shore... that's eyepopping. The shallow-water GoM in the Mississippi Delta has been drilled for decades. Shallow water drilling has been disincentivized in favor of deep water drilling for several years in part because of tourism and NIMBYism concerns. People do not want to see drills from the shore. This is well known in the sector. Y…

I have no incentive for further discussion with you, so I'm not sure why I'm bothering to respond. I'll just say that I'm well aware of the politics and technical issues in the E&P sector as well as domestic and international energy consumption (across all fuel types), and that you are on the border of being completely uninformed on this issue. Frankly, it's sad. You have an opinion, and have used Google to find arti…

Since you know the industry so well, what is your opinion of this?

http://www.npr.org/2011/09/25/140784004/new-boom-reshapes-oi...

"[T]he US could be poised to pass Saudi Arabia and overtake Russia as the world's largest oil producer" - true?

Re: Kurzweil's rebuttal to Paul Allen

#123
post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have no incentive for further discussion with you, so I'm not sure why I'm bothering to respond. I'll just say that I'm well aware of the politics and technical issues in the E&P sector as well as domestic and international energy consumption (across all fuel types), and that you are on the border of being completely uninformed on this issue. Frankly, it's sad. You have an opinion, and have used Google to find arti…

Since you know the industry so well, what is your opinion of this? http://www.npr.org/2011/09/25/140784004/new-boom-reshapes-oi... "[T]he US could be poised to pass Saudi Arabia and overtake Russia as the world's largest oil producer" - true?

The 2T bboe is likely talking about in place reserves, not recoverable reserves. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves#Proven_reserves for a discussion of the definitions 'in place', 'proven', and 'probable'.

Fracking is still a young-ish technique, and last I knew the recovery rates were less than 5%. I don't think it will get above 10% even with technology improvements. Which is still a boatload of Oil / NG / NGL. It's still just 8 years of global demand at current rates.

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