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Programming in the Apocalypse

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Re: Programming in the Apocalypse

#251

Post by verisimi »

qgin wrote: post #215
verisimi wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So we are told. If anything, the temperature seems cooler to me. But do you recollect the climategate scandal? Where historical temperature records were altered?

So because of the way temperatures seem to you subjectively, you're going to say there is a worldwide conspiracy of everyone who works on historical climate research to fudge the numbers?

With climategate, we saw scientists falsifying the data. But you can't read about what happened on wikipedia - the entry there is an exercise in obfuscation.

You can read some bits of the emails here: https://web.archive.org/web/20220517000832/https://www.forbe... - judge for yourself!

What this tells me is that the science is highly politicised, and cannot be trusted. Too many people stand to make money and gain control from the purported threat. Al Gore is one of those. You should watch 'An Inconvenient Truth' from 2006 - it hasn't aged well. Should there be a punishment for people who shout fire in a crowded theatre?

So, I have listened (and once believed) all the alarms over the years - they have not materialised. People talk about wildfires and flooding, but these are better explained by mismanagement, despite the media hype.

So no, I don't trust the politicised science, nor the foghorn media. OTOH, I do see how an excuse of 'climate change' is valuable in handing even greater control to the governance structure, where they can micro-manage your usage of electricity, water, and even have the ability to turn it off. Do you think if they have that power they won't do it?

And yes, despite all the talk of rising water levels, I have not seen it. I have been to beaches from my youth - the water levels are the same. Certainly there have been changes - and climate is not some consistent, clockwork thing - there are probable cycles and mega-cycles in there.

The whole thing about climate changes, seems designed to be play on both our sense of importance (that we can really change the world, as if we were gods) and a self-indulgent saviour complex - we need to save the world from us. Its religious thinking to me, you feel sinful and are seeking atonement. I didn't think science was meant to work like that!

Re: Programming in the Apocalypse

#252

Post by RalfWausE »

peterweyand0 wrote: post #115

Raise your hand if you would be willing to lower your standard of living, voluntarily, in order to stave off global warming. Sell your car. Stop buying anything made with plastic. Stop using electricity. I don't see many hands.

raises hand

I already have given up my car and transitioned to using a bicycle for my commute to work, longer distances i cover with the train. We (my family and i) are on a vegetarian diet and moving to vegan.

Re: Programming in the Apocalypse

#253

Post by erddfre3423 »

bryanrasmussen wrote: post #240
leke wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

2. I can't see it getting any lower in Finland. Our job already pays (through the collective agreement) a woman's salary.

What is a woman's salary in Finland? At any rate looking at it http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=73&locty... http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=73&locty... it looks like you're right, the median salary for programmers in Finland (4,830 EUR) is just a bit more than the median salary for everyone (4,320 EUR)

Calling it a "woman's salary" is a bit of an exaggeration, when mainly-women fields such as nursing requiring higher education pay about 2900-3500 EUR including extras from night shifts and sundays (or about 2500 without any extras).

But yes, programmers definitely are not overpaid in Finland. It's not unheard for fresh CS grads to be paid just 2500 EUR a month, though at least they have career progression unlike nurses forever stuck with such bad salaries...

Re: Programming in the Apocalypse

#254

Post by astrange »

tasuki wrote: post #239
madrox wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd argue the opposite. If it's insignificant at all, it's only because of our response to it. Lots of people worked very, very hard for us to sit here typing "it wasn't that bad" unless you believe that our global covid response did very little to change the outcome. If you do believe that, though, there's probably little point in continuing this thread.

Yes, lots of people worked very hard to make the outcome better. I'm grateful to them for helping protect my aged relations. They did make a difference. With that out, the Covid-19 pandemic, even without any measures at all, was still incredibly mild. Wikipedia says 0.1-0.3% global population lost [0]. It would have been I don't know, perhaps 0.5% without measures? Compare to the other pandemics on that list, you rou…

Those other pandemics are before we had any ability to defend ourselves or even know what was going on.

SARS-1 and MERS are quite fatal too but we stopped them from spreading.

Re: Programming in the Apocalypse

#255

Post by astrange »

whatshisface wrote: post #148
dijit wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have a widely deployed vaccine. COVID will live with us forever now, a pandemic has a few characteristics which make it so, one of which is capacity to overwhelm healthcare. As soon as covid couldn’t overwhelm our healthcare systems it was over. Now people will die every year with it, just like the flu. Sad reality, but reality nonetheless, the fact we couldn’t handle a lock-down cemented that we would be living w…

The vaccine only lasts six months. I am not sure how "widely deployed" it is anymore.

T cell immunity lasts longer than that. The antibody counts are kind of like a “watched pot never boils” thing - we’ve just never bothered to look before so now everyone is stressing about it.

Re: Programming in the Apocalypse

#256

Post by astrange »

coolspot wrote: post #191
madrox wrote: post #97

The pandemic taught me a lot about apocalypse. While people are a lot slower to buy into collective action and changing their way of life than I thought, society is far more robust than I expected. Covid looked nothing like a pandemic film, thank god. With that in mind, I have some ideas on what programming will look like in 30 years: 1. New frameworks and abstractions for making apps even more disposable while maint…

> Programmer pay will decrease compared to other industries. It is supply and demand for smart people. So far, demand for smart people increased throughout times. If earth will make more smart people or if they will be replaced/augmented with A(G)I, then pay will subside.

Human programmers will surely have comparative advantage over AGI that isn’t human at all, not to mention has no evidence of existing anytime soon.

Re: Programming in the Apocalypse

#257

Post by astrange »

jrumbut wrote: post #246
madrox wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reason I'm low confidence on pay is because I think there will be even more disparity among programmer salaries and the median will be far lower. Will it be possible to make a million a year as an engineer in 30 years (forget inflation for a moment)? Sure. However, I think there will be a lot more engineers making five figures. We're lowering the bar to do simple work all the time. Much like the other professions…

I would agree though for a different reason. If society has to rebuild/replace infrastructure destroyed by more hurricanes, raise ports above new sea levels or build new ports, upgrade the power grid, food takes more resources to grow, etc, all using materials that are being desperately sought by every other nation on earth that's going to take every penny we can find anywhere and that means most salaries will be squ…

Climate change will mainly not affect the rich countries with computer programmers, except for secondary effects like California wildfires. It’ll mostly affect poor countries at the equator.

The median scientific projection is that every year will still be “better” economically than the one before it, including climate change costs, but that it’ll be about as bad as WW2 happening very slowly in the background.

Re: Programming in the Apocalypse

#258

Post by astrange »

erddfre3423 wrote: post #249
coryrc wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why have we spent $2 trillion so far on Iraq (even if you believed it was linked to 9/11 and 3000 deaths) when Alzheimer's disease costs $200B annually and costing about 5 million a few decades of life? (I'm approximating lost QALY as ~5 million/year, or about 20x 9/11s every year) We should be investing in high ROI life-saving actions, not emotional impulses. Let's put serious money behind defeating aging, which cur…

Defeating aging sounds like a horrible idea as long as we aren't able to conquer space. The planet is badly overpopulated already as it is.

The world is nowhere near overpopulated, most countries are going to see population crashes if anything.

“Overpopulation” is a meme from the 60s coming from a book (Population Bomb) that was disproved the instant it was published. It is, however, a big reason for single family zoning in California - they literally thought it would encourage people to stop moving there and having kids.

Re: Programming in the Apocalypse

#259

Post by astrange »

goatlover wrote: post #231
actually_a_dog wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we lost all the insects in a ~100 year period, the result would be close enough to losing "all life on earth" for anyone who doesn't have a microscope (or, more likely, a telescope). This is not an exaggeration in any sense of the word.

We won't lose all insects. They didn't all die off when a massive rock took out the non-avian dinosaurs 65 million years ago, and that was far more catastrophic (worse than any human nuclear winter scenario).

Might’ve taken a while to grow back though.

The loss of insects isn’t caused by climate change, it’s too much pesticide use and people trying to have lawns instead of native plants.

Re: Programming in the Apocalypse

#260

Post by astrange »

ClumsyPilot wrote: post #202
FargaColora wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"the difference between human extinction and the mere collapse of our civilization" Literally nobody is predicting any of those things, except propagandists and doomers. I would urge you to broaden your media intake to more mainstream sources, because it is not mentally healthy to be living a life under such falsehoods.

The comment section is full of clueless numpties that do not understand what 4 degrees REALLY means, and think it won't lead to collapse. When the world was 4 degrees COLDER Chicago was under 900 meters of ice. Toronto was under two Kilometers of ice. Do you think that would cause collapse of civilisation? How are you going to adapt to a glacier covering all the farmland? No technolgy, not even nuclear bombs, can rem…

We are not headed for 4C, the median prediction is between 1.5 and 2C.
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