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Programming in the Apocalypse

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Re: Programming in the Apocalypse

#201

Post by cableshaft »

coryrc wrote: post #151
madrox wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there's a fallacy here in that "because covid's impact wasn't great, covid wasn't that bad." Any time we have to mobilize a lot of effort to head off the worst outcome, there's a tendency to say "well nothing really bad happened, so why did we go through all that effort?" Let's not trivialize the global effort necessary to bring us to 1/10th the death toll. It absolutely could've been worse. It's our response…

> there's a tendency to say "well nothing really bad happened, so why did we go through all that effort? Basically a third of our country didn't go through that effort and the country is mostly still chugging along. Were it much deadlier, things would not have turned out okay.

My state took it just seriously enough to get us to vaccines (and even before that, buy some time until they realized they shouldn't just put everyone on a respirator). For all I know it may have saved my life and the life of several other people I know with comorbidities. Possibly my parents as well.

Yes, a third of the country didn't go through the effort and a lot of people died in those states also. The country might still be functioning, but not necessarily well, with significant labor shortages, supply chain issues, high inflation, a looming recession, record high gas prices, etc. (not all of that is directly because of the pandemic, granted, but it sure didn't help).

Re: Programming in the Apocalypse

#202

Post by ClumsyPilot »

FargaColora wrote: post #135
skyfaller wrote: post #16

I agree that we need to plan for climate adaptation (preparing for predictable problems) and resilience (preparing for unpredictable problems), but I have a few kneejerk responses: - Although it's looking increasingly unlikely that we can avert climate disaster, we can never give up. For example, 8 degrees of warming would be much worse than 4 degrees of warming, and could mean the difference between human extinction…

"the difference between human extinction and the mere collapse of our civilization" Literally nobody is predicting any of those things, except propagandists and doomers. I would urge you to broaden your media intake to more mainstream sources, because it is not mentally healthy to be living a life under such falsehoods.

The comment section is full of clueless numpties that do not understand what 4 degrees REALLY means, and think it won't lead to collapse.

When the world was 4 degrees COLDER Chicago was under 900 meters of ice. Toronto was under two Kilometers of ice.

Do you think that would cause collapse of civilisation? How are you going to adapt to a glacier covering all the farmland? No technolgy, not even nuclear bombs, can remove the billions of tons of ice that would be covering all the farmland. We could not even protect cities, the moving wall of ice would buldoze every structure we've build and then whoever didn't freese to death would die of famine.

We are headed for a 4 degree change in the OTHER direction. That's what we are headed for by the end of the century

The biggest mistake climate scientists have done is communicated their change in terms of degrees, so people think about their everyday experience with weather, which obviouslty changes much more than that, and think they will just sweat a bit more in the summer.

Re: Programming in the Apocalypse

#203

Post by worik »

coolspot wrote: post #191
madrox wrote: post #97

The pandemic taught me a lot about apocalypse. While people are a lot slower to buy into collective action and changing their way of life than I thought, society is far more robust than I expected. Covid looked nothing like a pandemic film, thank god. With that in mind, I have some ideas on what programming will look like in 30 years: 1. New frameworks and abstractions for making apps even more disposable while maint…

> Programmer pay will decrease compared to other industries. It is supply and demand for smart people. So far, demand for smart people increased throughout times. If earth will make more smart people or if they will be replaced/augmented with A(G)I, then pay will subside.

Are programmers really smarter?

Smarter than animal trainers?

Smarter than massage therapists?

Smarter than lawyers, artists, plumbers???

If we took a vote here, well we might be biased!

Re: Programming in the Apocalypse

#204

Post by ClumsyPilot »

actually_a_dog wrote: post #200
ClumsyPilot wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point the OP is making is that wiping out all life on earth is an impossible and silly benchmark. No-one sane thinks 'oh, but we don't have to do anything about climate change because some worms will survive around the thermal vents on the ocean floor' To 'wipe out' life on earth, you have to crash the moon into it or do something similarly ridiculous - remember that a giant asteroid wasn't enough. Wiping out all…

If we lost all the insects in a ~100 year period, the result would be close enough to losing "all life on earth" for anyone who doesn't have a microscope (or, more likely, a telescope). This is not an exaggeration in any sense of the word.

You are not wrong, but isn't the insect-apocalypse distrinct from climate change? Insects aren't dying from CO2 emissions, different policies are needed to address them.

Re: Programming in the Apocalypse

#205

Post by WaxedChewbacca »

koshergweilo wrote: post #99
verisimi wrote: post #76

If there is an apocalypse, it looks entirely contrived to me. Spending untold billions to shut down the economy for most of 2 years is something I saw with my own eyes. Sea level rises, and whatever else, not at all. The dire predictions have been coming for decades (remember Al Gore)? And nothing.. I suspect its just a trick that means we hand over greater control and money to the worst of us (government). And if it…

> dire predictions have been coming for decades (remember Al Gore)? And nothing. And I suppose you think that's it's just a coincidence that we're breaking all-time-high temperature records year over year isn't it?

No post body was provided.

Re: Programming in the Apocalypse

#206

Post by worik »

coryrc wrote: post #155
titzer wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What COVID taught me is that the human ability to not give a fuck is apparently infinite. I have trouble processing the fact that a million people died (in the USA) and there is no mourning, no shared sense of tragedy or loss, no looking more kindly on other people, just a madder, faster dash on cash and even more finger-pointing. > Covid was not 1% as bad as any pandemic featured in a film. I'll be generous and not…

Something like 5 million people die every year, should we be in permanent mourning?

> Something like 5 million people die every year, should we be in permanent mourning?

That gives truth to Benjamin Disraeli's (attributed) "Lies, damn lies, and statistics". Very misleading.

It was the concentrated effects.

When bottled oxygen ran out in India.

When you could not get into a hospital in many American cities (my American geography is hazy - South Los Angeles hospital, I think, was crippled for weeks)

Running out of morgue space in New York city - mass graves in central park.

It was really very scary, and I am glad I was not in any of those places badly hit.

Re: Programming in the Apocalypse

#207

Post by thombles »

I've been thinking about this recently and have a few tentative conclusions.

- My government (.au) runs almost entirely on the MS cloud/productivity stack, as do most large businesses. This is the stuff that's going to get resources when there are outages, conflicts, or difficult decisions have to be made. Assuming a degradation over the next decade or two, you could do worse than align your business or personal computing with PCs and MS tech/services - by the time you're facing major outages there are probably bigger problems outside your window. Even in extended collapse downturns there will be some work available to keep this stuff ticking along for many years.

- Intermittent connectivity is to be expected, but also the risk of suddenly losing access to some resource permanently, be that dependencies, documentation, software downloads, or your cloud data. At a minimum all cloud data you care about should have a full offline copy on local disk in a format that is usable. (This seems generally true of both Apple and MS cloud services, if you have a fully synced Mac or Windows PC with the right settings.)

- Development environments with batteries-included standard libraries will offer the most bang-for-buck, which can be installed from offline installers. Being able to build custom GUI apps on demand for whatever hardware your customer has is very helpful. I think .NET MAUI is very interesting here, especially if they end up gaining Linux GUI support. Linux is a great way to bring old laptops into service.

- When advanced technology manufacturing becomes too resource intensive and expensive for many people to buy, larger computers etc. will give way to phones, often crummy ones. Expect lots of Androids and hand-me-downs.

- There will be good trade in second-hand hard drives and batteries that are not too worn. If you can bodge together USB powerpacks from scavenged batteries then certain kinds of USB-powered devices should be able to run for decades. Ultimately I expect old Android devices to be dominant platform because they are numerous, relatively inexpensive, hackable and portable.

- If your value derives from what you have (hardware, stashes of offline data etc.) then expect it to be taken from you. Skills are more helpful - so long as they are actually useful in the computing environment of the time.

Re: Programming in the Apocalypse

#209

Post by _dain_ »

mtinkerhess wrote: post #119
peterweyand0 wrote: post #115

Raise your hand if you would be willing to lower your standard of living, voluntarily, in order to stave off global warming. Sell your car. Stop buying anything made with plastic. Stop using electricity. I don't see many hands.

I would be more than happy to give up almost everything if it would stop climate change, but unfortunately even if I make all those changes, everybody else will continue driving cars, so it seems my personal choices have nothing to do with whether global warming happens or not. The way around this is collective (government) action to guarantee everyone will participate, but for a variety of reasons we don't have the…

what is the purpose of "corporate / industrial" energy usage if not ultimately to serve the needs of a consumer at the end of the supply chain?

Re: Programming in the Apocalypse

#210

Post by _dain_ »

titzer wrote: post #167
coryrc wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Something like 5 million people die every year, should we be in permanent mourning?

I know you're trolling, but I'll respond. Part of growing up and moving from just a mere legally-licensed adult is being able to hold heavy things. They never stop getting heavier. They just keep unfolding, and if you are willing to grow just a little deeper--not bigger, but deeper, like the roots of you being able to feel things, then maybe all that learning to deal with loss, tragedies, loved ones dying, aging, you…

you "grown ups" locked me indoors for months and didn't let me see my family. spare me your sanctimony.
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