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Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

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Re: Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

#181

Post by a3camero »

jsz0 wrote: post #123
cookiecaper wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a great example of the excessive control given to rights holders, so excessive that a prominent company like Netflix ($300/share is certainly not something to shirk) and similar hypothetical businesses can be totally gutted at the pleasure of a handful of production companies and/or publishers. The diminution of Netflix is no small matter and will hopefully serve as a very visible demonstration of the cruel absu…

It seems as though you're suggesting that the movie studios that spend tens, sometimes hundreds, of million of dollars to produce a single film should be forced to sell it to companies like Netflix for pennies. The basic problem here is that Netflix is selling a total fantasy product that does not pay the rights holders enough money. Look at the math -- $8/month for unlimited access? How does that possibly work when…

That said, Netflix does have the content and the media companies presumably didn't license it out of the goodness of their hearts.

Re: Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

#182

Post by shinratdr »

padobson wrote: post #162
shinratdr wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Netflix doesn't have fixed costs. As they become more popular, licensing becomes more and more expensive and it becomes easier and easier for content owners to jerk them around for their own benefit.

But don't content costs scale on a linear trajectory? Cable companies pay $x/subscriber for a channel - each additional customer doesn't add to some cost multiplier and profit goes up with revenue and cost of content. Is Netflix so at the whims of content providers that their model is so much different? It seems like a completely broken business if they can't find scalable ways to make their content providers money.

> But don't content costs scale on a linear trajectory? Cable companies pay $x/subscriber for a channel - each additional customer doesn't add to some cost multiplier and profit goes up with revenue and cost of content.

Netflix doesn't do that, though. There are no channels to speak of, so there is no middleman to negotiate with, there is only the content providers who see you as small peanuts when you're little and a looming, direct threat when you're big.

The way Netflix deals work (at least from what we can gather from public articles about the subject) is that Netflix pays a fixed cost for x streams of y content from z provider, with a time expiry for the overall deal. Once the collective user base has used up that streaming bucket or the time has expired, Netflix has to re-negotiate to fill it again.

In other words, in 2005 when Netflix only has 500k subscribers and online video is impossible to monitize, handing them a multi year exclusive deal with a 5 million streams for $100 million (pulling these numbers directly out of my ass, just to be clear) is no big deal, you just made $100 million on something that was formerly worthless, good for you.

However now it's the year 2011 when advertisers are paying better money for online ads, online viewing is exploding and eating into your traditional sources of revenue, and Netflix is riding their 2005-era deal all the way to the bank. Now letting them get away with that deal is viewed as tantamount to content theft in the eyes of the providers. Suddenly to secure the same deal you got for $100m, will now cost you $500m. Multiply that by every content provider in the industry, and you can plainly see why Netflix is stuck between a rock and a hard place right now.

Re: Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

#183

Post by kellishaver »

suivix wrote: post #152
kellishaver wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've done a few things after cancelling Netflix. In my case, it was so rare that I got DVDs that it wasn't worth the cost of continuing that. I've just dropped rented DVDs from my viewing all together (though there's also a Redbox that I go by every single day so that's an option). As for streaming, most of what I want to watch I can also get for free via Amazon Instant with my Amazon Prime account, which I would be…

I don't understand why you'd buy DVDs and Blu-rays knowing they will soon be obsolete?

I think "soon" is a bit overly optimistic. DVDs are on the way out, yes (though a lot of TV shows are still only available on DVD), but I really don't see blu-ray going anywhere for a while.

Besides, I like having the physical media, even though it's not the most efficient, and I don't think I'm alone in that. I think it probably appeals to a lot of consumers.

Anyway, it doesn't really matter if they become obsolete in a year. The ones I've purchased aren't going to suddenly stop working because the technology has moved on and the players will be around for a long while for this reason. Heck, you can still buy a VCR for about $40 and VHS tapes have a much shorter life than a CD. When the players start getting hard to find or too expensive, it will be a simple matter to transfer the contents of said disks to a hard drive.

Re: Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

#184

Post by palish »

Despite wrote: post #169
palish wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you so very much!

I second creditboards.com. It can be difficult and demoralizing to find what you need on there, but it's worth it. I've got several collections removed from my own report, and I'll help anybody who asks. Since you're dealing with a small valid debt -- the first thing to try is the Right Thing. Call the Dr's Office -- not the collections agency -- offer to pay if they will take the bill back from the collections agenc…

Thank you too! How long did it take you to get your report fixed?

I haven't paid the collectors.. I've been so disgusted with the situation and their behavior.

Again, thank you so much for your time.

Re: Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

#185

Post by notJim »

merijnv wrote: post #160
notJim wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sorry, as this is rather off-topic, but are you by any chance unfamiliar with credit scores because they don't exist in Australia? If so, how do lending institutions gauge your credit-worthiness, and how do you set expectations about the same? I am just curious how this works outside of the US.

non-US perspective: In the Netherlands we have the "Burea of Credit Registration" which registers most debts, storing: - amount - start date - expected end date - actual end date - type of credit - miscellaneous notes If payments are missed or other difficulties develop the lender can contact the Bureau, which notes this information on file. This information is stored for up to 5 years after final payment. Note that…

Thanks, that sounds basically the same as the credit reporting agencies here in the US (except maybe the thing you're talking about is government-run?)

Re: Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

#186

Post by wiredfool »

tomkarlo wrote: post #179
wiredfool wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm totally in agreement about Apple being big, and I don't see them becoming 4x bigger than the next largest company. I think, from a financial POV it would make sense to spin stuff off, so that each part has a chance to become as big as the whole. From a synergy POV, that's daft. Apple gets a ton of benefit from being one unified whole. Apple's big issue now is to avoid replaying the sideways fall of microsoft in t…

Amazon has nearly doubled their employee base in the last two years, and most of those hires were higher-paid "corporate" employees rather than fulfillment center hires. The expense structure may look the same but it's not, they've clearly explained that each time they do an earnings call and the market has backed them up on it - their stock has solidly outperformed Apple's for several years. There's an earnings qual…

I see their changes, now, with their latest results. It doesn't look like the market really expected the lack of profit though, so it will be interesting to see where the stock ends up soon.

I'd like to own amazon stock for the long haul, I'm just not into spending quite the premium that the market wanted recently. If they get beaten down enough, it'll be time to buy.

Re: Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

#187

Post by slowpoke »

km3k wrote: post #171
slowpoke wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but the low cost, convenience, and value add of netflix I still find it much more convenient to head over to TPB (or another tracker of my choice), find a torrent of whatever I want to watch, download (and share) it, and then be able to play it with my favorite media player - as many times as I want. I don't see what value a streaming service is supposed to add over a local copy. It's a waste of bandwidth as soon a…

Yeah, the torrents are still a good option, but I like Netflix since it's quicker and easier than torrenting. The streaming is instant. And if you have "unlimited" bandwidth, then the additional streams don't really matter. When I'm on my couch and want to watch a movie, I don't want to search for and download a torrent, I want to watch a movie. Netflix (on my Xbox 360) lets me do that. The interesting thing for Netf…

>since it's quicker and easier than torrenting.

That depends on your watching habits. I maintain a backlog of things to watch which I regularly refill. That also prevents me from wasting time on impulsive decisions - I plan ahead on what to watch. Besides, you can also use direct downloads to get the same advantages (almost instant playback) than streams.

>And if you have "unlimited" bandwidth, then the additional streams don't really matter.

I talking more about the big picture. The extended usage of streaming is, or at least will become, a burden on the infrastructure. It's unneeded traffic. It's the same as the push towards cloud storage - insanity, and not only from a security and privacy point of view.

Re: Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

#188

Post by jshen »

slowpoke wrote: post #187
km3k wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, the torrents are still a good option, but I like Netflix since it's quicker and easier than torrenting. The streaming is instant. And if you have "unlimited" bandwidth, then the additional streams don't really matter. When I'm on my couch and want to watch a movie, I don't want to search for and download a torrent, I want to watch a movie. Netflix (on my Xbox 360) lets me do that. The interesting thing for Netf…

>since it's quicker and easier than torrenting. That depends on your watching habits. I maintain a backlog of things to watch which I regularly refill. That also prevents me from wasting time on impulsive decisions - I plan ahead on what to watch. Besides, you can also use direct downloads to get the same advantages (almost instant playback) than streams. >And if you have "unlimited" bandwidth, then the additional st…

You are not normal. What seems easy to you is not easy for the average person. Most people do not understand computers like those of us here understand computers.

Re: Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

#189

Post by Despite »

palish wrote: post #184
Despite wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I second creditboards.com. It can be difficult and demoralizing to find what you need on there, but it's worth it. I've got several collections removed from my own report, and I'll help anybody who asks. Since you're dealing with a small valid debt -- the first thing to try is the Right Thing. Call the Dr's Office -- not the collections agency -- offer to pay if they will take the bill back from the collections agenc…

Thank you too! How long did it take you to get your report fixed? I haven't paid the collectors.. I've been so disgusted with the situation and their behavior. Again, thank you so much for your time.

I had 15 or so collections (misspent youth, what can I say), it took me a year of off-and-on effort to clear them out. I had a very boring high-paying job, so I could take the time to do it right, and could afford to send out registered letters all the time.

Re: Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

#190

Post by merijnv »

notJim wrote: post #185
merijnv wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

non-US perspective: In the Netherlands we have the "Burea of Credit Registration" which registers most debts, storing: - amount - start date - expected end date - actual end date - type of credit - miscellaneous notes If payments are missed or other difficulties develop the lender can contact the Bureau, which notes this information on file. This information is stored for up to 5 years after final payment. Note that…

Thanks, that sounds basically the same as the credit reporting agencies here in the US (except maybe the thing you're talking about is government-run?)

Well, my impression was that in the US you need to establish some kind of credit history to get a good credit score. Whereas here it is normal for people with no credit history to get loans and mortgages.
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