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Programming in the Apocalypse

matduggan.com

61–70 of 301 posts

Re: Programming in the Apocalypse

#61

There are two better explanations than the Great Filter: - Dark Forest theory is popular in China, that civilizations should conceal their existence to prevent being destroyed by a more advanced civilization - Our own high power TV and Radio transmitters will be shutdown soon in favor of fiber optics. Even better communication mechanisms should be no surprise

The glossed over Great Filter is space is fucking huge and physics is mean.

It takes a great effort to get a coherent radio signal to hit a system many light years away. Leaked radio emissions just don't reach very far. Even high powered radar is extremely narrow beams coming from a spinning planet orbiting a star that itself is flying through space. The odds that beam crosses some system specifically listening for it is extremely low and the odds of a reoccurrence is ridiculously low.

The dark forest just doesn't make sense. A sufficiently large telescope can get spectra from terrestrial planets. If you have some killer space fleet you'll send it off to any planet where you find short-lived industrial emissions (CFCs etc). There's no need to wait for radio emissions from a planet with biomarkers. It also presumes its practical to send a space fleet to go destroy anyone.

It's far more likely the odds of any two technological civilizations existing at the same "time" at detectable ranges is extremely low. Species also don't tend to take over galaxies because it requires unattainable amounts of power and resources much better used to live happily in their own little corner.

Re: Programming in the Apocalypse

#62
post #45

It’s nice to submit to call of civilizational collapse every once in a while, but it’s not a realistic view. Yes, climate change is going to affect billions of people, but from what I can tell, things are moving in the right direction and we’re on track to avoid the worst even with barely any political action. If it was suddenly 2050 and none of our technology had improved, we’d be fucked. But it’s not a useful persp…

> "Based on this I felt like some of the big winners in 2050 will be Rust, Clojure and Go." I mean the guy may be delusional, but he's right on the climate part. Even if our tech improves and we cut carbon to zero in a fairytaleish fashion we're still up for a 3 deg temp increase till 2100 which will be rather catastrophic. Of course the developed world will be hit the least due to its location, so we'll likely be fi…

From the literature I’ve read, that doesn’t seem right. If we cut all emissions to zero by 2050, total temperature rise would be more like 2C afaik.

Re: Programming in the Apocalypse

#63

Ctrl+F geoengineering: 0 hits Come on, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_geoengineering it entered mainstream just recently: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/01/opinion/climate-change-ge... https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/aug/26/planet... https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/08/09/615/what-is-geoe... By now one question should remain: why was the very idea of geoengineering silenced for decades behin…

Anthropic global warming is by definition geoengineering. We are not controlling it, what makes you think that we can control other geoengineerings techniques ?

Re: Programming in the Apocalypse

#64
This article doesn't take into account any of the myriad advances in AI, which appears to be starting up an exponential curve of improvement.

IMO, it is likely the Singularity will arrive before 2050 and make practically everything in this article completely moot.

Re: Programming in the Apocalypse

#65

“we have to accept immense hits to the global economy and the resulting poverty, suffering and impact. The scope of the change required is staggering. We've never done something like this” This is an insanely extreme claim with very little evidence to back it up, if we watch this unfold at the hands of global leadership please know that it didn’t have to be this way and somebody is taking advantage of all of us for p…

You will own nothing and be happy.

Bill Gates tells us to not eat meat and owns a gigaton of farmland.

He rells us to ride bikes and has the largest fleet of private jets in the world.

Re: Programming in the Apocalypse

#66
>>> “On the bright side, the Asheville branch is just a five-minute drive from the beach now, so the all-hands meeting should be a lot more fun this year.” As an aside, seeing things like this in climate change articles always bothers me. FYI Asheville being minutes from the beach would imply a 650m+ (2000+ft) sea rise in the next 25 years.

This kind of hyperbole makes it easy for people who deny climate change in totality to say it is based on absurd scenarios which will never happen. The real projections implications are significant enough. Why do people feel the need to resort to pure fiction?

Re: Programming in the Apocalypse

#67

Ctrl+F geoengineering: 0 hits Come on, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_geoengineering it entered mainstream just recently: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/01/opinion/climate-change-ge... https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/aug/26/planet... https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/08/09/615/what-is-geoe... By now one question should remain: why was the very idea of geoengineering silenced for decades behin…

I think this is a decent and brief response to why geoengineering is a bad idea: https://www.geoengineeringmonitor.org/reasons-to-oppose/ The most convincing argument to me is that we're already facing a vast problem that would require a great deal of geoengineering to counter. If polluters realized they could geoengineer the problem away, they would stop trying to reduce emissions, and the geoengineering problem wou…

I agree that geoengineering is a bad idea but they use the "white men" bogeyman, that's really stupid. And also they don't really talk about to price to pay for degrowth

Re: Programming in the Apocalypse

#68
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "Based on this I felt like some of the big winners in 2050 will be Rust, Clojure and Go." I mean the guy may be delusional, but he's right on the climate part. Even if our tech improves and we cut carbon to zero in a fairytaleish fashion we're still up for a 3 deg temp increase till 2100 which will be rather catastrophic. Of course the developed world will be hit the least due to its location, so we'll likely be fi…

From the literature I’ve read, that doesn’t seem right. If we cut all emissions to zero by 2050, total temperature rise would be more like 2C afaik.

I mean that's in the ballpark, few people agree on the exact numbers given that it depends on so many unknown factors. There's the oceans outgassing the CO2 they've absorbed so far, ice melting resulting in permanent greater sunlight absorption, clathrate gun, etc.

The rule of thumb (iirc) is that 1C would be business as usual, 4C a Mad Max hell scape, and we'll likely end up somewhere in between. The closer to which side we'll be depends on how well we implement countermeasures... and how much luck we have.

Re: Programming in the Apocalypse

#69
I don't really agree with 'collapse of human civilization; apocalyptic predictions due to fossil-fueled global warming, more like a rapid degradation in living standards for the vast majority of people on the planet, do to the known list of climate-related issues: decreases in agricultural production largely related to heat waves and drought, and infrastructure damage due to flooding and fires and extreme weather.

This is likely to reduce the amount of arable land, and the intersection of that and continued human population growth is likely going to put pressure on populations to migrate to more livable zones, and that will create the kinds of tensions like to lead to widespread warfare and possibly even genocidal actions.

Now, can some of this be technologically mitigated? Absolutely. It's entirely possible to run the global economy without fossil fuels. The major sources of replacement energy would be wind/solar/storage, and nuclear in some regions (massive expansion of nuclear is just not feasible, sorry enthusiasts, but that's the reality - there's not that much high-grade uranium ore around, breeder concepts are implausible, fusion is nowhere in sight, and the cost equation favors solar and wind in the vast majority of regions, from the equator descending polewards).

However, that would upend the economic status quo in a remarkable way. All the petrostates that live off oil exports and oil production would have serious readjustments (and this is non-ideological, it's true for the USA, for Saudi Arabia, for Venezuela, for Russia, for Iran, etc.).

Imagine if we got serious about eliminating fossil fuel use globally. Well, one obvious first step would be a ban on the international trade in fossil fuels, right? Who would agree to that? All the fossil fuel corporations I know of are planning on maintaining current levels of output for the next 30 years, as well.

Regardless, we could very plausibly reduce fossil fuel production in the USA by 3% per year if we also increased solar/wind/storage by 3% per year, while maintaining most of the current nuclear fleet. Then, in 30 years, the USA would produce zero fossil fuels. It's entirely doable with existing technlogy, but would require as much investment as say, the military-industrial complex currently gets.

As far as computer tech and programming, I really don't see that being fundamentally impacted; if there's an energy / material crunch then it will just become more expensive to buy a computer or run a datacenter, and it'll be more restricted to key uses (managing energy grids, running factories, etc.). However, running a chip production line off solar power is entirely feasible.

Re: Programming in the Apocalypse

#70
> Just wanted to follow up on my note from a few days ago in case it got buried under all of those e-mails about the flood. I’m concerned about how the Eastern Seaboard being swallowed by the Atlantic Ocean is going to affect our Q4 numbers, so I’d like to get your eyes on the latest earnings figures ASAP. On the bright side, the Asheville branch is just a five-minute drive from the beach now, so the all-hands meeting should be a lot more fun this year. Silver linings!

I... I don't think I'm psychologically prepared for tolerating the fauxptimism of corpospeak under the Slow Motion Apocalypse.

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