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Programming in the Apocalypse

matduggan.com

11–20 of 301 posts

Re: Programming in the Apocalypse

#11

So... anyone else having doubts that with all the apocalyptic things going on around the world people will keep their appetite for mindless distraction and will still be able/willing to one-click buy random stuff on a whim? When they might have to expect waiting weeks for the delivery, and/or pay humongous transport fees? Asking because that seems to be what much of modern IT is angling for and why there's so much mo…

> else having doubts that with all the apocalyptic things going on around the world people will keep their appetite for mindless distraction and will still be able/willing to one-click buy random stuff on a whim

Wouldn't people in the described apocalyptic scenario want mindless distraction? Anything to keep their minds off the, well, apocalyptic things going on.

Re: Programming in the Apocalypse

#12

So... anyone else having doubts that with all the apocalyptic things going on around the world people will keep their appetite for mindless distraction and will still be able/willing to one-click buy random stuff on a whim? When they might have to expect waiting weeks for the delivery, and/or pay humongous transport fees? Asking because that seems to be what much of modern IT is angling for and why there's so much mo…

[deleted]

Re: Programming in the Apocalypse

#13
I think the basic idea is to cross energy use of a language with ubiquity of existing deployments.

So take energy use benchmarks from things like this

https://haslab.github.io/SAFER/scp21.pdf https://github.com/kostya/benchmarks

and cross it with popularity?

https://spectrum.ieee.org/top-programming-languages/

Re: Programming in the Apocalypse

#14

Ctrl+F geoengineering: 0 hits Come on, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_geoengineering it entered mainstream just recently: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/01/opinion/climate-change-ge... https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/aug/26/planet... https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/08/09/615/what-is-geoe... By now one question should remain: why was the very idea of geoengineering silenced for decades behin…

This person is assuming the problem will occur, and thinking about what their type of work will look like under those conditions. So, it is less interesting of an article if you want to hear about attempts to innovate around the whole problem.

Re: Programming in the Apocalypse

#15
There are two better explanations than the Great Filter:

- Dark Forest theory is popular in China, that civilizations should conceal their existence to prevent being destroyed by a more advanced civilization

- Our own high power TV and Radio transmitters will be shutdown soon in favor of fiber optics. Even better communication mechanisms should be no surprise

Re: Programming in the Apocalypse

#16
I agree that we need to plan for climate adaptation (preparing for predictable problems) and resilience (preparing for unpredictable problems), but I have a few kneejerk responses:

- Although it's looking increasingly unlikely that we can avert climate disaster, we can never give up. For example, 8 degrees of warming would be much worse than 4 degrees of warming, and could mean the difference between human extinction and the mere collapse of our civilization. The lives of billions hang in the balance, and even if some will inevitably suffer and die, we can't just throw up our hands and let everyone die. Climate change mitigation, cutting emissions as quickly and thoroughly as we can, must remain a priority for the rest of our lives, even if we can no longer reach the best/safest scenarios. Every little bit of avoided global heating matters.

- This post, as dire as its predictions are, may underestimate the difficulty of computing in 2050, given current trends. If you are/were living in Ukraine recently, programming is not most people's top priority, they have other problems. Famines, extreme weather events, and resource wars will affect programmers who live in comfortable locations today. It's not just your users/audience who might be computing from a shitty mobile phone in a refugee camp, it could be you. Don't forget that we're not only dealing with climate change, but with the reaction of other people to climate change: they might want to kill you for your water. And heatwaves are predictable in India/Pakistan, but look at the freak heatwaves in Canada recently, nowhere on Earth is safe, the climate crisis is a global problem.

- Why are we programming what we're programming? Shouldn't our activities and their purposes change given the dramatic change in circumstances? Isn't there something wrong with the system that produced this result, the impending destruction of the biosphere that supports us? Fighting valiantly to preserve the functionality that is killing the world may not be a wise or ethical use of your time. (And if you're programming something for a fossil fuel company, now is a good time to reconsider.)

Re: Programming in the Apocalypse

#17
At some point, we'll have to put a fine dust in the upper atmosphere.

We seem to have most of the building blocks already for renewable energy. Just need to focus on it and assemble them together... and decide it's worth giving up fossil fuel related things that are still functional.

Re: Programming in the Apocalypse

#18

Ctrl+F geoengineering: 0 hits Come on, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_geoengineering it entered mainstream just recently: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/01/opinion/climate-change-ge... https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/aug/26/planet... https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/08/09/615/what-is-geoe... By now one question should remain: why was the very idea of geoengineering silenced for decades behin…

I think the general consensus is that we've proven to be complete and absolute rubbish when it comes to predicting how vast complex real-world systems that we can't read worth a damn behave when we put them under major stresses, and the vast majority of attempts to hack ecosystems have been disasters, meaning that we're just as likely to make things even worse if we try to apply our crude means and models to make pla…

I think that was the basis for Snowpiercer.

Re: Programming in the Apocalypse

#19

So... anyone else having doubts that with all the apocalyptic things going on around the world people will keep their appetite for mindless distraction and will still be able/willing to one-click buy random stuff on a whim? When they might have to expect waiting weeks for the delivery, and/or pay humongous transport fees? Asking because that seems to be what much of modern IT is angling for and why there's so much mo…

Energy is on track to stay the same price or get cheaper as it gets cleaner.

The big question isn't really whether we clean it up, it's the timetable.

Cost and availability of energy is a great proxy for transport cost.

Re: Programming in the Apocalypse

#20

Ctrl+F geoengineering: 0 hits Come on, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_geoengineering it entered mainstream just recently: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/01/opinion/climate-change-ge... https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/aug/26/planet... https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/08/09/615/what-is-geoe... By now one question should remain: why was the very idea of geoengineering silenced for decades behin…

I think this is a decent and brief response to why geoengineering is a bad idea: https://www.geoengineeringmonitor.org/reasons-to-oppose/

The most convincing argument to me is that we're already facing a vast problem that would require a great deal of geoengineering to counter. If polluters realized they could geoengineer the problem away, they would stop trying to reduce emissions, and the geoengineering problem would become even larger and more unmanageable.

Due to how entropy works, it's always more efficient to simply not spill milk on the floor than to mop it up. Deciding that you should just have a milk bottle fight because you have a mop in the house is... strange? It will never be more efficient to scrub greenhouse gases from the air than to avoid emitting them in the first place.

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