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Food security and the coming storm

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Re: Food security and the coming storm

#301

Post by WalterBright »

sdoering wrote: post #4

I recently had a conversation with an organic farmer. While he is able to pass on at least some of his increased costs for energy and fuel through direct sales and cooperatively organized distribution channels, his conventionally farmed colleagues have a bigger problem. They have long-term purchase contracts that fix the prices for milk, meat or vegetables. In the case of milk and meat in particular, production costs…

You blamed the speculators, but when a farmer locks in long term prices, he is also speculating in futures.

Re: Food security and the coming storm

#302

Post by sammalloy »

GekkePrutser wrote: post #270
atmartins wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here me out: this sounds like an excuse. If you really want to solve it you could. I did. I use a wok to cook and it's faster than going to McDonalds. It's slower than a frozen meal but not by much. I don't aim for perfection, rather, most of my meals I try and make healthy. I still love bacon. In less than 10 minutes you can chop celery, broccoli, tofu, chicken, etc. If it takes longer then solve that problem: bette…

Your suggestions sound nice if you're a foodie. But as someone with zero interest in cooking it's just horrible having to think about it in the evening.

That’s what meal prep is for. You cook once or twice a week and meal prep batches for easy eating.

Re: Food security and the coming storm

#303

Post by sammalloy »

rdevsrex wrote: post #160
atmartins wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here me out: this sounds like an excuse. If you really want to solve it you could. I did. I use a wok to cook and it's faster than going to McDonalds. It's slower than a frozen meal but not by much. I don't aim for perfection, rather, most of my meals I try and make healthy. I still love bacon. In less than 10 minutes you can chop celery, broccoli, tofu, chicken, etc. If it takes longer then solve that problem: bette…

I agree. The complaint I don't have time seems like a very first world, and honestly very American, problem to have. There is batch prep, online food delivery, and simple one pot meals that can be either done in a slow cooker, or under 20 minutes.

Agreed. It’s like anything else, you find and make time. Meal prep is specifically designed for this.

Re: Food security and the coming storm

#304

Post by droopyEyelids »

I keep seeing articles referencing that Russia is blockading Ukraine's ports.

As far as I can tell, that is completely untrue. Russia still allows shipping in the Black Sea in what they call a humanitarian corridor which is "a safe lane south-west of Ukraine's territorial sea, 80 nautical miles long and 3 nautical miles wide, from 08:00 to 19:00"

The reason ships can not dock at Ukrainian ports is "Ukraine’s ports are at MARSEC (maritime security) level 3 and remain closed for entry and exit. Sea mines have been laid in port approaches and some port exits are blocked by sunken barges and cranes."

This comes from the The International Maritime Organization (IMO)

https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/HotTopics/Pages/MaritimeS...

Russia is doing enough evil that we don't have a shortage of stuff to denounce it for. And while misinformation has its place in war, I don't like it here and think it could make the food crisis worse.

Re: Food security and the coming storm

#305

Post by shagie »

pandemicsyn wrote: post #242
sebmellen wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would highly recommend https://factor75.com . A bit pricey, but the food is worth it.

I was huge fan of Factor but at least at the time (before the pandemic) their packaging was iffy and I'd often get a delivery where more than half of the meal trays where busted. I did Trifecta for a bit after, they've got robust packaging but the food wasn't nearly as good as Factor's.

Some (most) of this, I believe, is the issue of the delivery company.

As an anecdote, a few weeks ago, it was unseasonably warm (88°F at 8pm when I contacted Factor support) because the package hadn't been delivered yet. When it was delivered the next day (hadn't dropped below 80°F), and I opened it, the cold packs were completely depleted and I contacted support again and I was fully reimbursed for the meal. I haven't been disappointed by Factor, though I have been disappointed by the delivery company.

Re: Food security and the coming storm

#306

Post by WalterBright »

colechristensen wrote: post #246
vkou wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In theory, you are correct. In practice, hedging for increases in fuel prices means buying something like oil futures. Which requires you to be at terminal at some port city 6 months down the line to physically collect the oil/gasoline/whatever that you bought. And then store it for the months before you use it.

It really doesn’t, you don’t buy fuel on the futures market, you buy it locally from the coop or whatever local purveyor you use for future delivery, hundreds of gallons at a time. The same for your other inputs, you have contacts to buy them well into the future, you don’t just pay the market rate when you need it.

Commodities futures are just like gold based money. The gold itself wasn't traded, it sat locked in a vault somewhere. People traded receipts for the gold. I.e. that's what banknotes literally used to be.

Re: Food security and the coming storm

#307

Post by somedangedname »

deamanto wrote: post #260
colechristensen wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you sold futures for your outputs and didn’t buy futures for your inputs, the results are on you. These are the kind of complaints you get from people who make market bets and end up wrong. You can use futures like insurance to insulate yourself from market fluctuations or you can use them like a casino.

I actually have a very specific story on this one from a friend. In Australia, there's this stereotype of the "hard working Aussie battler farmer" and that we should all support our farmers. My friend's family business was one of these growing a type of nut. It was common for neighbouring farmers to make a good living selling their produce and using it for their own purposes and expect the government to bail them out…

Yep. I'm from a region that grew sugarcane historically but is moving to tree crops like nuts.

Local 'big name' family is voracious in their consumption of government grants. They're not struggling by any means but they've got application writing down to a fine science.

Re: Food security and the coming storm

#308

Post by biztos »

deamanto wrote: post #260
colechristensen wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you sold futures for your outputs and didn’t buy futures for your inputs, the results are on you. These are the kind of complaints you get from people who make market bets and end up wrong. You can use futures like insurance to insulate yourself from market fluctuations or you can use them like a casino.

I actually have a very specific story on this one from a friend. In Australia, there's this stereotype of the "hard working Aussie battler farmer" and that we should all support our farmers. My friend's family business was one of these growing a type of nut. It was common for neighbouring farmers to make a good living selling their produce and using it for their own purposes and expect the government to bail them out…

> expect the government to bail them out

…

> A lot of other businesses did not prepare for this

So did the government bail them out?

Re: Food security and the coming storm

#309

Post by ThunderSizzle »

ajsnigrutin wrote: post #175
daxfohl wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sounds like the ideal is to frame the food system after the US medical system. You can't find out what something is going to cost until after you've eaten it. You have to have food consumption insurance to get things at reasonable cost. Food insurance companies charge astronomical rates unless you're part of some group plan.

Or regulate price transparancies... how much does the farmer get, how much the processor, how much the retailer, and how much goes to taxes.

Then the government will need to admit much of a price tag is taxes, probably 1st after taxes.

Re: Food security and the coming storm

#310

Post by colechristensen »

WalterBright wrote: post #306
colechristensen wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It really doesn’t, you don’t buy fuel on the futures market, you buy it locally from the coop or whatever local purveyor you use for future delivery, hundreds of gallons at a time. The same for your other inputs, you have contacts to buy them well into the future, you don’t just pay the market rate when you need it.

Commodities futures are just like gold based money. The gold itself wasn't traded, it sat locked in a vault somewhere. People traded receipts for the gold. I.e. that's what banknotes literally used to be.

Eh, while there is quite a lot of speculation-only trading, unless you're dealing with cash-settled futures, if you forget to close out your position you'll be expected to, say, deliver or take delivery on 5000 bushels of corn.

Commodities futures are heavily used to arrange actual exchange of goods and aren't abstractions but real contracts.

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