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Food security and the coming storm

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Re: Food security and the coming storm

#171

Post by guerrilla »

Viliam1234 wrote: post #166
guerrilla wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I tend to agree but I want to add some reasons. First is that it's clearly ineffective. As much propaganda as we hear, Russia's still getting what it wants. Russia pulled out of most of the country the day after Zelensky announced they might not go in NATO after all [1]. The south (which is strategic to Russia - see my other comment[2]) is theirs. The ruble is better than it was before the war even with lifted capita…

> As much propaganda as we hear, Russia's still getting what it wants. Russia pulled out of most of the country the day after Zelensky announced they might not go in NATO after all. This is Russian propaganda. First, NATO does not accept new members while they are in the middle of a military conflict. And Russia is occupying parts of Ukraine since 2014. So it's not like Zelensky's words changed something; he just com…

> This is Russian propaganda.

Oh are Zelensky and The Independent Russian propaganda now? [1] Sorry, I can't keep up with you people. What about The Hill and AP[2]?

> Second, nope, Russia absolutely didn't get what Putin wants. You may want to read his essay "On the historical units of Russians and Ukrainians". He wants the entire Ukraine to become a part of Russia.

So now you buy into Russian propaganda instead of political science. Interesting.

> In reality, the Russian army was near Kiev trying to capture it, failed, was pushed back. To save face, Putin now says that this is exactly what he wanted. Except, yesterday he said something different, and no doubt tomorrow he will say something different again.

Sure thing, buddy, just coincidentally the day after Zelensky announced Ukraine won't go in NATO.

1. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/zelensky-ukr...

2. https://thehill.com/policy/international/598335-zelensky-con...

Re: Food security and the coming storm

#172

Post by guerrilla »

lotusmars wrote: post #168
guerrilla wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I tend to agree but I want to add some reasons. First is that it's clearly ineffective. As much propaganda as we hear, Russia's still getting what it wants. Russia pulled out of most of the country the day after Zelensky announced they might not go in NATO after all [1]. The south (which is strategic to Russia - see my other comment[2]) is theirs. The ruble is better than it was before the war even with lifted capita…

> Russia pulled out of most of the country the day after Zelensky announced they might not go in NATO after all They didn't. The only time they made a major retreat was when they overstretched and Kyiv offensive that was expected to be quick failed. They've moved batallions to regroup for Donbas offensive leaving behind Bucha and other horrors. No connection to anything related to NATO. If anything "NATO enlargement"…

> The only time they made a major retreat was when they overstretched and Kyiv offensive that was expected to be quick failed.

Yeah, that's false. Google is your friend on this one. Next time pay attention to the war you want to comment on.

> No connection to anything related to NATO. If anything "NATO enlargement" rhethoric is just a coverup. Estonia is part of the NATO and it's bordering Russia with travel distance of 210 km to St. Petersburg.

Also false. Nobody in IR actually believe this propaganda. But yeah, there are many other things Russia also wants. I linked the comment where I outlined some of them.

Re: Food security and the coming storm

#173

Post by lotusmars »

guerrilla wrote: post #76
code123456789 wrote: post #71

LOL. The article says that to fix the issue we need some international efforts and blah blah blah. Bullshit. All we need is to sink down russian ships in Black sea. Even better will be to help with the liberation of both Kherson and Crimea regions. Zaporizhzhya and Donbas can be liberated later, but Bastion rockets in Crimea endanger ports in Odesa and Yuzhne. This is the easiest way to provide food to emerging marke…

> All we need is to sink down russian ships in Black sea. Yeah, I'm sure nuclear war will be good for food pirces.

Putin will always push further by saying "cave in to my demands or I'll nuke you".

Most of it is bluff. Which like any bluff is scary to call bluff. Russian army is in corrupt disarray and even tacticals nukes are not guranteed to work. He will probably be disobeyed by his staff.

Speaking of ships, the flaghsip of Black Sea Fleet Moskva was sunk by Ukrainians. Putin was reportedly enraged but didn't do a thing besides all atrocities he's already doing. Russian media covered it up for domestic audience.

They can sink all of them. He won't nuke anyone. He knows it's a bet on his system he can not afford.

Re: Food security and the coming storm

#174

Post by daxfohl »

ajsnigrutin wrote: post #161
sdoering wrote: post #4

I recently had a conversation with an organic farmer. While he is able to pass on at least some of his increased costs for energy and fuel through direct sales and cooperatively organized distribution channels, his conventionally farmed colleagues have a bigger problem. They have long-term purchase contracts that fix the prices for milk, meat or vegetables. In the case of milk and meat in particular, production costs…

I find two things funny... it might be a local thing (i'm from slovenia) but yeah... 1) gas was ~1.5eur here, then it fell to 1.0eur during the plague, and there were zero price drops beacause of that, and when the price started rising to 1.1, 1.2, 1.3 eur, everybody (farmers, retailers) started complaining about increasing gas prices and how that will result in higher consumer prices (even before we hit the price a…

Sounds like the ideal is to frame the food system after the US medical system.

You can't find out what something is going to cost until after you've eaten it. You have to have food consumption insurance to get things at reasonable cost. Food insurance companies charge astronomical rates unless you're part of some group plan.

Re: Food security and the coming storm

#175

Post by ajsnigrutin »

daxfohl wrote: post #174
ajsnigrutin wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find two things funny... it might be a local thing (i'm from slovenia) but yeah... 1) gas was ~1.5eur here, then it fell to 1.0eur during the plague, and there were zero price drops beacause of that, and when the price started rising to 1.1, 1.2, 1.3 eur, everybody (farmers, retailers) started complaining about increasing gas prices and how that will result in higher consumer prices (even before we hit the price a…

Sounds like the ideal is to frame the food system after the US medical system. You can't find out what something is going to cost until after you've eaten it. You have to have food consumption insurance to get things at reasonable cost. Food insurance companies charge astronomical rates unless you're part of some group plan.

Or regulate price transparancies... how much does the farmer get, how much the processor, how much the retailer, and how much goes to taxes.

Re: Food security and the coming storm

#176

Post by guerrilla »

lotusmars wrote: post #173
guerrilla wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> All we need is to sink down russian ships in Black sea. Yeah, I'm sure nuclear war will be good for food pirces.

Putin will always push further by saying "cave in to my demands or I'll nuke you". Most of it is bluff. Which like any bluff is scary to call bluff. Russian army is in corrupt disarray and even tacticals nukes are not guranteed to work. He will probably be disobeyed by his staff. Speaking of ships, the flaghsip of Black Sea Fleet Moskva was sunk by Ukrainians. Putin was reportedly enraged but didn't do a thing beside…

> Most of it is bluff.

You don't know that and I don't want to risk that. Don't be arrogant. Everyone said his buildup on Ukraine a bluff. It wasn't. I don't think we should ever trust people like you again.

> Russian army is in corrupt disarray and even tacticals nukes are not guranteed to work. He will probably be disobeyed by his staff.

Yet still winning...

> Speaking of ships, the flaghsip of Black Sea Fleet Moskva was sunk by Ukrainians. Putin was reportedly enraged but didn't do a thing besides all atrocities he's already doing. Russian media covered it up for domestic audience.

Ukraine doing that and the US doing that are drastically different. If you don't understand that then you're definitely not worth listening to on this.

Re: Food security and the coming storm

#177

Post by lotusmars »

ibejoeb wrote: post #99
code123456789 wrote: post #71

LOL. The article says that to fix the issue we need some international efforts and blah blah blah. Bullshit. All we need is to sink down russian ships in Black sea. Even better will be to help with the liberation of both Kherson and Crimea regions. Zaporizhzhya and Donbas can be liberated later, but Bastion rockets in Crimea endanger ports in Odesa and Yuzhne. This is the easiest way to provide food to emerging marke…

Who is "we" in this context?

Ukrainans equipped with modern weapons and intelligence. They already notoriously sank a Russian flagship.

In reality though Germans drag their feet by not providing weapons they've already promised.

Seems like Putin's policy of buying Schroder's and betting on German politicians pays off.

Re: Food security and the coming storm

#178

Post by tomp »

fennecfoxen wrote: post #163
tomp wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You left out the part about turning to fascism "Everyone I disagree with is a Nazi." [1] In the real world, Orban was just reelected with overwhelming majority (increasing his vote share). He didn't contribute to the causes of said migration and didn't set out to solve the problem either, he just made sure his country and the people that elected him were minimally impacted. > We housed, clothed, fed and educated mi…

> solving these problems... where they happen (would also be much cheaper) You assert that it's much cheaper to solve these problems without moving the people. It is not nearly so cut-and-dry. When someone seeks to flee their homeland for Europe or America, it's generally because something is very wrong where they are coming from. Often, the problem includes some sort of kleptocratic, warmongering, authoritarian, or…

There's 1.2 billion people in Africa. Good luck moving all of them.

The only realistic solution is reforming institutions where the people are.

Re: Food security and the coming storm

#179

Post by bumper_crop »

roflyear wrote: post #169
sdoering wrote: post #4

I recently had a conversation with an organic farmer. While he is able to pass on at least some of his increased costs for energy and fuel through direct sales and cooperatively organized distribution channels, his conventionally farmed colleagues have a bigger problem. They have long-term purchase contracts that fix the prices for milk, meat or vegetables. In the case of milk and meat in particular, production costs…

This is how futures contracts are supposed to work. The times when these contracts made the farmers extra money at the expense of the consumer should make up for this time.

We hope these are Futures; it sounded like GPs farmer may have Forward contracts. If this is the case, it would make more sense for the Farmer to bail on the contract if prices get too far out. (a.k.a. counterparty risk) That would be bad.

Re: Food security and the coming storm

#180

Post by onlyrealcuzzo »

aftbit wrote: post #21
lotusmars wrote: post #10

Putin already hinted that in exchange of lifting sanctions he will ship grain from occupied Ukraine. I'm pretty sure that Western politicans will scream "no way" initially but will quietly give in later. Just they way they gave in to Putin's demands to pay for gas in rubles. Whole rush on occopying south Ukraine (and levelling cities like Mariupol) was for Putin to have grains shortage as yet another leverage on Euro…

Wow I didn't realize the ruble has been strengthening despite the sanctions, but it is true.[1] 1: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/RUB-USD?window=6M

They have an 18.5% interest rate compared to 0% in EU, and compared to ~5% in Russia pre-war.

If not for an absurdly high interest rate and capital controls - the Ruble would not be doing well.

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