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Food security and the coming storm

eurasiagroup.net

11–20 of 427 posts

Re: Food security and the coming storm

#11

Another: https://jeffreycarter.substack.com/p/no-one-is-talking-about... Few seem to want to talk about this, they want to talk about how coming shortages will best be solved by giving them power or at the least listening to their advice. For all the "Baby formula shortage" media coverage, how many stories have included a recipe for alternatives to commercial formula? Mostly I've seen admonitions to not try making ba…

> There are rumors of diesel shortages and urea shortages. In order to operate a diesel engine on the road you have to use DEF fluid which is urea.

This isn't strictly true, you can remove the DEF emissions control system from most trucks for a small price and this even yields a small performance gain. In my state, this is quite common as there is no emissions testing. The emphasis on diesel/DEF shortages is greatly exaggerated and somewhat misguided, I think.

Re: Food security and the coming storm

#12
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fertilizer problems started with sanctions on Belarus which is 20% of the worlds potash as in potassium market, and got dire due to China, the US and Europe all messing up their natural gas markets. That's used to supply hydrogen atoms for the first step of nitrogen fertilizer, the most used by weight, in the Haber process which makes ammonia (NH3) using nitrogen from the air. A lot of entities, not just "Crop Pr…

Much of the regulations in the USA are mainly now used to keep the main businesses in those markets safe from competitors.

I'd strip the "now" from your statement, this goes back at least to the 1887 Interstate Commerce Commission and many subsidy attempts which generally didn't produce economically viable railways or steamship lines.

Regulatory capture is a universal problem as long as a government is involved in an economy, and it has to be if for no other reason than to collect taxes.

Re: Food security and the coming storm

#13

Doesn't seem to factor in that cheap solar will make desalination much cheaper, but an interesting article for sure.

A large issue is where do you put the brackish or super-salted water? Desalination is great as long as you have the waste impacts managed.

Re: Food security and the coming storm

#14
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fertilizer problems started with sanctions on Belarus which is 20% of the worlds potash as in potassium market, and got dire due to China, the US and Europe all messing up their natural gas markets. That's used to supply hydrogen atoms for the first step of nitrogen fertilizer, the most used by weight, in the Haber process which makes ammonia (NH3) using nitrogen from the air. A lot of entities, not just "Crop Pr…

Much of the regulations in the USA are mainly now used to keep the main businesses in those markets safe from competitors.

There's a term for this: Crony Capitalism

Re: Food security and the coming storm

#15
post #4

I recently had a conversation with an organic farmer. While he is able to pass on at least some of his increased costs for energy and fuel through direct sales and cooperatively organized distribution channels, his conventionally farmed colleagues have a bigger problem. They have long-term purchase contracts that fix the prices for milk, meat or vegetables. In the case of milk and meat in particular, production costs…

I'm less pessimistic. People in the US, and increasingly the rest of the world are on a diet that just isn't good for them: lots of low quality carbs with cheap fat and artificial flavorings and not a whole lot of nutritional value. Arguably, a large part of the population is eating way more than is good for them and not enough good quality food. And it's not just a money issue: it's a skill and knowledge issue. People literally pay extra for the privilege of growing fat on expensive junk food and they don't even know the basics of taking care of themselves anymore.

So, low quality industrial food products getting more expensive isn't necessarily a bad thing. It might prompt people to spend their money more wisely. There are plenty of options for people interested in doing a bit of work to put together a healthy diet for themselves.

Buy good ingredients yourself and learn how to use them. You'll save money and eat better. And if you source a bit responsibly, you actually help out some local producers and shops that are currently struggling. It's not that hard. A lot of us here are programmers. If you can put together code that implements a complex algorithm, you can follow a recipe and figure out how making food works. It's not hard.

For example, I bake my own bread. I do that using flour that I buy online from a local mill here in Germany. Good stuff. Works out to about 1.60 euros per kg. The supermarkets here don't even sell this quality of bread flour. They mostly sell more processed flours that people use to bake cakes. The flour I bought is locally known as type 812. In the french system it would be T85 (approximately). All that means: lots of protein and other nutrients that you need to make good bread. Unlike the supermarket, I use no additives other than salt. I even make my own sourdough starter (flour + water, let nature do it's thing). So, literally the main ingredients that I have to buy are flour and salt. Works out to less than 1 euro per loaf of bread; including the power I consume to use the oven. And it tastes good. If I wanted to cut the price of this, I'm sure I could source both ingredients even cheaper. Sourdough bread works with all sorts of flour. Even with the cheap low quality stuff. You might be able to go as low as 50 cents per kg of flour. That works out to about 25 cents per loaf. And it will still taste great.

Takes a bit of skill and some time. But otherwise it's cheap.

People in poor countries tend to know a thing or two about making the most of cheap ingredients. That's why Italian food is so popular. It's quite literally what poor Italians came up with. A lot of their famous dishes are rooted in what poor peasants could do with what they could afford. Pasta is basically flour and water. You work it hard and you end up with the perfect vessel for some sort of stew. As for the stew: whatever cuts of meat cooked for ages with whatever you can pick around you. Plenty of examples around the world of great food traditions rooted in poor people making the most of what they have access to: India, Vietnam, Thailand, Cuba, etc. Almost anywhere you go, people have this rich history of doing great stuff with whatever is available to them. Mostly, it boils down to skill and time to use those skills.

Re: Food security and the coming storm

#16

Putin already hinted that in exchange of lifting sanctions he will ship grain from occupied Ukraine. I'm pretty sure that Western politicans will scream "no way" initially but will quietly give in later. Just they way they gave in to Putin's demands to pay for gas in rubles. Whole rush on occopying south Ukraine (and levelling cities like Mariupol) was for Putin to have grains shortage as yet another leverage on Euro…

I dunno. Mariupol doesn't look that flattened to me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i1I8SZeXGFo

Re: Food security and the coming storm

#17

Putin already hinted that in exchange of lifting sanctions he will ship grain from occupied Ukraine. I'm pretty sure that Western politicans will scream "no way" initially but will quietly give in later. Just they way they gave in to Putin's demands to pay for gas in rubles. Whole rush on occopying south Ukraine (and levelling cities like Mariupol) was for Putin to have grains shortage as yet another leverage on Euro…

I dunno. Mariupol doesn't look that flattened to me. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i1I8SZeXGFo

Plese don't spread Russian propaganda. Graham Philips worked a token "pro-Putin Westerner" on RT and Zvezda, which is literally Russian army's TV channel. He's as shilly as it gets.

Re: Food security and the coming storm

#19
post #4

I recently had a conversation with an organic farmer. While he is able to pass on at least some of his increased costs for energy and fuel through direct sales and cooperatively organized distribution channels, his conventionally farmed colleagues have a bigger problem. They have long-term purchase contracts that fix the prices for milk, meat or vegetables. In the case of milk and meat in particular, production costs…

Those long-term purchase contracts (futures) are only one side of the hedge. We’re not getting the full story.

https://extension.missouri.edu/publications/g603

Re: Food security and the coming storm

#20
post #4

I recently had a conversation with an organic farmer. While he is able to pass on at least some of his increased costs for energy and fuel through direct sales and cooperatively organized distribution channels, his conventionally farmed colleagues have a bigger problem. They have long-term purchase contracts that fix the prices for milk, meat or vegetables. In the case of milk and meat in particular, production costs…

I'm less pessimistic. People in the US, and increasingly the rest of the world are on a diet that just isn't good for them: lots of low quality carbs with cheap fat and artificial flavorings and not a whole lot of nutritional value. Arguably, a large part of the population is eating way more than is good for them and not enough good quality food. And it's not just a money issue: it's a skill and knowledge issue. Peop…

Time for me is by far the limiting factor. Short of a personal chef (too expensive) all the quick options are unhealthy.

Edit:

Loads of people suggesting cooking - I know how to cook, I just don’t have the time or energy. It’s not just preparation time but also the planning aspect.

Meal prep delivery services suggestions are interesting. I have tried a few and found them expensive and low quality. Open to trying more though.

Sunday meal prep: I did this as a student but I love food and I love deciding what to eat on the day. Going back to that would remove some of the joy from life.

I think what I really want is a work canteen, but open to the public. The economies of scale could make this price competitive and there’s less delivery overhead than the meal prep subscriptions. I like the social aspect too. I would definitely pay a subscription to a canteen.

I think this is how Roman cities operated.

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