Food security and the coming storm

Another: https://jeffreycarter.substack.com/p/no-one-is-talking-about...

Few seem to want to talk about this, they want to talk about how coming shortages will best be solved by giving them power or at the least listening to their advice.

For all the "Baby formula shortage" media coverage, how many stories have included a recipe for alternatives to commercial formula? Mostly I've seen admonitions to not try making baby food at home, which is incredibly useless for people trying to feed kids.

I'm seeing fields choked with weeds, because the Crop Production company that leases the land decided they're doing half a "no till" planting this year without herbicide; because that'll get them their crop failure insurance payment. I suspect they will bail on some of next year's leases or at least lower rates because of reduced fertility, too.

"Fertilizer export restrictions" started happening last fall; this was all visible writing on the wall well before Ukraine got invaded. It sounds "conspiracy theorist" to say there's a plan in operation; but it's hard to say that there is not.

I recently had a conversation with an organic farmer. While he is able to pass on at least some of his increased costs for energy and fuel through direct sales and cooperatively organized distribution channels, his conventionally farmed colleagues have a bigger problem. They have long-term purchase contracts that fix the prices for milk, meat or vegetables. In the case of milk and meat in particular, production costs, including purchased feed for the animals, now exceed the agreed purchase prices.

At the same time, however, prices for the end consumer are rising because, on the one hand, the processing companies themselves have higher energy costs, but on the other hand (without passing them on to the producers) the current climate allows price increases and thus an increase in margins. So the consumer and the farmer lose out. Only the processor, its shareholders and retailers benefit (at least in the short term). And the speculators who bet on rising prices.

Many conventional farmers see their livelihoods threatened. Which further endangers food security in the long term.

The fertilizer problems started with sanctions on Belarus which is 20% of the worlds potash as in potassium market, and got dire due to China, the US and Europe all messing up their natural gas markets. That's used to supply hydrogen atoms for the first step of nitrogen fertilizer, the most used by weight, in the Haber process which makes ammonia (NH3) using nitrogen from the air. A lot of entities, not just "Crop Production companies" are doing suboptimal things for the food supply due to the fertilizer crisis.

As for stores not providing baby formula recipes, I'd imagine they're worried about liability, and there are of course many other sources for them. Really, due to the Federal government's WIC program which is half the market, its import restrictions, and messed up FDA regulation it should be on them.

I say messed up because the FDA demonstrably wasn't serious about dealing with the Abbott Labs plant problem or getting it fixed quickly based on the timeline starting with the whistle blower, while they make it very hard to get into the business. Or the USDA's problem due to their policy of forcing states to grant a WIC monopoly to one formula manufacturer resulted in three companies having almost all the total US market with Abbott having the largest share, at the same time US prices being double those of Europe. Which isn't as strict about food safety but still seems to do OK.

A serious country would have done something to mitigate the shortage after they closed down Abbot's huge factory before there were bare shelves for months and it became a political problem in an election year.

Much of the regulations in the USA are mainly now used to keep the main businesses in those markets safe from competitors.

Putin already hinted that in exchange of lifting sanctions he will ship grain from occupied Ukraine. I'm pretty sure that Western politicans will scream "no way" initially but will quietly give in later. Just they way they gave in to Putin's demands to pay for gas in rubles.

Whole rush on occopying south Ukraine (and levelling cities like Mariupol) was for Putin to have grains shortage as yet another leverage on European politicians.

Not to mention that sanctions hadn't made any significant dent anyway. Russian economy is booming unfortunately. Yes import is limited, but local prices cratered due to strong ruble. It's around 60-70 RUB per USD both in banks and on the street compared to 78 pre-war.

These sanctions are a shame while Germans are sponsoring war by pumping billions into Russian economy and drag their feet on promised weapons to Ukraine.

So much blood on Germans once again. Only last time they were explicit about it.