Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%) • Hacker News Board

Re: Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

#171

Post by km3k » Tue, Oct 25, 2011, 1:31 PM UTC

slowpoke wrote: post #154

jshen wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"I feel bad for Netflix. They're between a rock and a hard place. The content providers want more money and eventually want to cut out the middleman." This is true, but the content providers are also between a rock and a hard place, but don't seem to realize it. A generation of kids are growing up knowing how to get content for free, but the low cost, convenience, and value add of netflix is worth it if you aren't po…

> but the low cost, convenience, and value add of netflix I still find it much more convenient to head over to TPB (or another tracker of my choice), find a torrent of whatever I want to watch, download (and share) it, and then be able to play it with my favorite media player - as many times as I want. I don't see what value a streaming service is supposed to add over a local copy. It's a waste of bandwidth as soon a…

Yeah, the torrents are still a good option, but I like Netflix since it's quicker and easier than torrenting. The streaming is instant. And if you have "unlimited" bandwidth, then the additional streams don't really matter. When I'm on my couch and want to watch a movie, I don't want to search for and download a torrent, I want to watch a movie. Netflix (on my Xbox 360) lets me do that.

The interesting thing for Netflix as they raise prices will be finding out where people's threshold is for paying for the convenience and licitness of Netflix versus downloading a torrent instead.

Re: Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

#172

Post by dennisgorelik » Tue, Oct 25, 2011, 2:04 PM UTC

palish wrote: post #109

nfriedly wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bill collectors really aren't that bad if you know how to deal with them. I got sent to one once for a service I had canceled three times. The collector sent me a letter in the mail and then started calling every day at around 8 or 9 am. I sent all of the calls to voicemail and I sent a letter to the collector (via certified mail with delivery receipt) that said "RE: account number XYZ; this bill is erroneous, do not…

Mine was the opposite experience. It wasn't really the same situation as yours, so maybe this is totally irrelevant. But here's my story, just incase. My health insurance denied my coverage for a Dr's appointment ("pre existing condition") a month or two after the appointment. I had moved by then, and apparently the mail didn't get forwarded or something. The dr's eventually turned me over to some California collecti…

We had very similar experience with medical bill (insurance didn't pay, we moved, years later found unpaid bill on our credit report).

Collector offered to pay and clean up the records.

After going through some doubts (what if collector lie about clean up?) we did pay and within weeks credit score returned back.

Re: Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

#173

Post by xutopia » Tue, Oct 25, 2011, 2:12 PM UTC

People seem to look at this and see it if Netflix would not survive this. The difference between Netflix and cable companies is that Netflix doesn't tie you into a 2 year contract.

Try cancelling your cable as fast as you can with Netflix.

The reality is that cable companies are starting to suffer from Netflix and the likes of it. Their slower decline will come to a surprise to many.

Re: Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

#174

Post by powertower » Tue, Oct 25, 2011, 2:15 PM UTC

steve8918 wrote: post #87

powertower wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When a drop in stock price is disproportionate to the available news, then you can be sure that the real cause of that drop is due to major players and insiders getting out because they know more than the public does and more problems are about to come out.

I'll have to check my datafeed, but it doesn't seem like there was a disproportionately large amount of volume after hours. The major players and insiders don't get out after the earnings release, they get out weeks before during the distribution phase. Most after-hours action is algo-bots and retail investors. The real action starts tomorrow morning, so get your popcorn ready!

$300 down to $80 in a span of a couple of months on news of a known/expected 3-5% of users leaving, while profits are increased, I would say count as "disproportionately large".

The way insiders work is like this... If they know they need to get out, but can't due to SEC insider rules (you can't sell a stock about to tank "just because", without getting in trouble later on), they take the first public opportunity to do so... On the release of any public bad news, that way their asses are covered.

Re: Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

#175

Post by chadgeidel » Tue, Oct 25, 2011, 2:23 PM UTC

tedunangst wrote: post #133

chadgeidel wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would pay for the "don't show me this again, ever" button.

Does rating a movie "Not interested" not accomplish that?

Unfortunately no. Netflix has been recommending "Hitch" with Will Smith since I've been a member. 8*(

Re: Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

#176

Post by chadgeidel » Tue, Oct 25, 2011, 2:27 PM UTC

frek818 wrote: post #135

chadgeidel wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I personally am amazed that people's queue is not constantly full. Right now I have 178 disks in my "DVD" queue and 87 titles in my "Instant" queue (including series which take one slot). Maybe there's a ton of stuff that I don't "need" to watch, but I can always find something interesting. I really don't consider myself a huge movie lover either.

Hard to believe you have that many movies in your Instant Queue. Is this Reed Hasting? I admit that I find a unpopular movie that I enjoy sometimes. But I mostly sit through 5 boring unpopular movies before I find a gem.

LOL - no I'm not Reed Hasting. I just throw stuff in there that I hear is good. I don't watch everything all the way through if it's not.

I watch about 2-3 movies and 2 TV shows a week though so it does take me a while to get through my queue.

Re: Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

#177

Post by enemieslist » Tue, Oct 25, 2011, 2:53 PM UTC

chadgeidel wrote: post #175

tedunangst wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does rating a movie "Not interested" not accomplish that?

Unfortunately no. Netflix has been recommending "Hitch" with Will Smith since I've been a member. 8*(

The greatest scientific minds of your generation have determined that you will probably love "Hitch" starring Will Smith. Submit to the inevitability of getting Hitched.

Re: Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

#178

Post by spinchange » Tue, Oct 25, 2011, 3:15 PM UTC

Sorry if this is OT/ a foolish question, but has the content available from Netflix Instant also gotten worse recently?

I have a subscription but am not really the person who uses it at home and for the fist time in ages tried using it last night and couldn't find the movie I wanted, the "instead of" recommendations were ridiculous, and all the "new releases" were just totally lackluster.

Have I missed something else beside the Qwikster debacle? Or is what it's showing me algorithmically based on what my wife and kids are watching?

If not, I can see why people are canceling in droves.

Re: Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

#179

Post by tomkarlo » Tue, Oct 25, 2011, 3:36 PM UTC

wiredfool wrote: post #144

tomkarlo wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Right, but Amazon is in a heavy infrastructure, heavy competition, low margin business. And their margins are small and getting smaller. 2% or so IIRC." Amazon's gross profit ran north of 20% last quarter. ( http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:AMZN&fstype=ii ) They're a dominant player in both online retail and cloud services, they're now providing cloud services to government entities, and they're growing like c…

I'm totally in agreement about Apple being big, and I don't see them becoming 4x bigger than the next largest company. I think, from a financial POV it would make sense to spin stuff off, so that each part has a chance to become as big as the whole. From a synergy POV, that's daft. Apple gets a ton of benefit from being one unified whole. Apple's big issue now is to avoid replaying the sideways fall of microsoft in t…

Amazon has nearly doubled their employee base in the last two years, and most of those hires were higher-paid "corporate" employees rather than fulfillment center hires. The expense structure may look the same but it's not, they've clearly explained that each time they do an earnings call and the market has backed them up on it - their stock has solidly outperformed Apple's for several years.

There's an earnings quality argument here as well: As a consumer electronics company, Apple's long term value is predicated heavily on their ability to stay "on trend" and keep delivering hot new products. Amazon doesn't have that pressure - whatever's popular, they'll be selling, and earning from things like government contracting are fairly stable as well. You get more market cap per dollar of earnings if those earnings are more likely to persist long-term.

Re: Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

#180

Post by shn » Tue, Oct 25, 2011, 4:25 PM UTC

gkoberger wrote: post #3

I feel bad for Netflix. They're between a rock and a hard place. The content providers want more money and eventually want to cut out the middleman. The users balk when the price is raised, even though unlimited streaming and DVDs for a month still cost less than a decent meal. And every decision they make (like Qwikster, which was likely done so they didn't have to pay content providers a fee for users who weren't s…

I do not believe that Netflix could NOT have avoided this. The bigger they got the easier it should get to make deals. Netflix was a poster child who took down the goliaths of the industry. But as soon as they became dominant they forgot their roots. Don't apologize for other peoples mistake and insensitivities. They screwed up big time. Not because of raising the fee but showing that they can be insensitive and become arrogant as well. I had subscribed and kept the subscription even at times that we were not utilizing the service that much. Firstly it was not expensive, but more importantly I was thinking that I am subsidizing something right, an example of that those big corporations can be replaced with right choice of the consumer with the help of entrepreneurs. I felt betrayed when they raised their fee and only keeping the streaming service since then. As soon as I find alternative I'll nix that as well.