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Why the government took home prices out of its main inflation index

fullstackeconomics.com

291–300 of 344 posts

Re: Why the government took home prices out of its main inflation index

#291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would say the easiest way to explain it is, as implied by the "C", that CPI is intended to track consumption. Houses aren't normally consumed. Your house a decade from now is expected to be, more or less, the same house you purchased originally. You expect, more or less, to be able to sell it for at least as much as you paid for it originally. Whereas a consumable good, like food, is used up once you eat it and the…

> Houses aren't normally consumed. That is just a technicality. Housing is the greatest one time and recurring expense most people have and change in prices for housing has the greatest impact on their perception of how expensive things are.

> greatest one time ... expense

That's the problem with house prices, regardless of whether or not you think they should be included in CPI, being that the average person is likely to only buy one or two in their life, leaving very little data about how their perception has changed over time. The best reason for choosing a measure of consumables is that they are purchased frequently by most people, providing information about how perceptions are changing on a regular basis.

> has the greatest impact on their perception of how expensive things are.

That would be more significant if we were talking about cost of living, but since we're talking about inflation, the actual goods selected in the basket don't matter all that much. The basket just has to be large enough to filter out the noise of individual products that have increased in value at a rate faster than the currency (or vice versa). And as it pertains to Canada, housing has appeared to be especially noisy of late, making it a poor choice for tracking inflation even ignoring all of the other problems with it.

Re: Why the government took home prices out of its main inflation index

#292
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the really psychotic aspect of this all is that in the long run it will destroy the economy as family formation craters Starting a family doesn't require owning a home. Vast numbers of people start families without ever owning a home.

The point isn't that you can't start a family without owning a home (obviously that's untrue) but that many people won't want to start a family while living in the relative instability of rented accommodation. That's almost certainly true - I definitely had buying a home as a pre-requisite to starting a family (and I don't regret that decision). There's always going to be some babies, but it's the societal level fert…

It seems weird that “preparation for a child” means owning your own home.

I never would have had kids if I waited that long.

I get that it’s perverse how we place so much of the cost of raising children in parents. At the same time, waiting until you’re “already established” is too much.

You may have had great reasons for doing this. But if this becomes a widely accepted expectation we are going to relying heavily on immigration.

Re: Why the government took home prices out of its main inflation index

#293
post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would say the easiest way to explain it is, as implied by the "C", that CPI is intended to track consumption. Houses aren't normally consumed. Your house a decade from now is expected to be, more or less, the same house you purchased originally. You expect, more or less, to be able to sell it for at least as much as you paid for it originally. Whereas a consumable good, like food, is used up once you eat it and the…

>they question if CPI is the best metric for measuring inflation, not whether or not durable assets should be considered consumables Right. Inflation is supposed to be a measure of erosion in purchasing power. Why should we leave out durable assets (which are purchasable things) from that measure and only consider consumable things? I get that's not CPI's intended purpose, but then why do people use it for defacto in…

Certainly if something is purchased infrequently or by few people it will not provide enough data to learn how about how purchasing power has eroded. Houses are a poor fit no matter how you slice it as the typical person will buy very few in their lifetime, with often decades between purchases. We like to track inflation on a monthly basis. That requires things that most people purchase on much more regular schedule to see how their behaviour is changing on a regular schedule.

Re: Why the government took home prices out of its main inflation index

#294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in a popular vacation destination. The locals didn't panic when wealthy multiple-home owners started buying up houses because ... their property values were increasing! Now local business can't find workers, towns can't find employees all because housing is out of reach for the working and lower-middle class. Like boiling a frog, most people won't care until it's too late.

I don't agree with your way of thinking. I know it's extraordinarily popular, but I think there is a different, more productive way to think about this. Think of houses sold to outsiders as a form of export. It's the best form of export: the good you are selling does not leave the premises, and the local community continues to collect taxes on that. The outsider does not consume government services as much as a local…

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Re: Why the government took home prices out of its main inflation index

#295
post #287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But eventually the vacant apartments will get rented out because they're costing their owners money (in taxes, mortgages, maintenance) and not bringing any in, and you can't spend more than you make forever. Rents go down when landlords go bankrupt. That's what happened in 2009-2010. It took about 4 years after peak homebuilding, and 2.5 years after peak home prices, and about 12-18 months after the financial crisis…

> But eventually the vacant apartments will get rented out because they're costing their owners money Owners make money leaving properties vacant all the time. In fact, in many markets capital gains have been much more significant than rental income for a long time now.

Not in a down market. Everybody's a genius in a bull market, where you make money just because your assets went up in value. In a bear market, where your assets go down in value, anyone without cash flow goes bankrupt.

Re: Why the government took home prices out of its main inflation index

#296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except that frogs, as (all? not a biologist) amphibians, have very good sensitivity to external temperature. Unlike humans.

It is just an expression. Frogs are actually smart enough to jump out of a gradually heated-to-boiling pot of water.

Humans in a slowly boiling pot seems to be more accurate.

Re: Why the government took home prices out of its main inflation index

#297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anecdotal: my wife and I are waiting for a home to start a family. We're not even going to stop contraception until we move in. The second we do, we'll start trying. Fortunately it looks like a 10% correction is all we need, and, fingers crossed, it looks to be coming.

What are you going to do if the 10% correction comes after prices have increased 15%?

Or there's a 10% correction, only because mortgage rates have increased your interest payment by 10%.

Re: Why the government took home prices out of its main inflation index

#298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's always the answer. For some reason it's makes some people on here angry, but the only long term viable solution to expensive housing is to end NIMBYism and draconian zoning laws. Anything else is a short-term half-measure, including affordable housing, rent controls, etc. If you want to actually solve the housing crisis, you just have to build more housing. It really is that simple.

Or maybe there's an ideal size for a given area based on geography and maybe many areas are already at that size.

A single family home is never the ideal size for any amount of geography.

Re: Why the government took home prices out of its main inflation index

#299
“Suppose you buy a home for $500,000, financing the purchase with a mortgage at a 6.4 percent interest rate. A few years later, you sell for $600,000. Interest rates have fallen, and the new buyer is able to get a mortgage at 4.7 percent. The price of the home has risen by 20 percent, so you could just say the cost of housing has gone up 20 percent. But that would be misleading. Assuming a 20 percent down payment, your original mortgage would have cost $2,502 per month, while the new owner’s mortgage would cost $2,489 per month. The monthly mortgage payment required to own the home actually went down.”

This calculation ignores the down payment, which would be $20,000 more for the buyer a few years later. Seems like a better comparison is to amortize the down payment somehow into the calculation, since buyers have to save up for the down payment while renting prior to their first home. Anyways, the full costs of purchase are not accounted for with this method.

Also, what about the other necessary costs of owning a home like closing costs, real estate commissions, insurance, property taxes, pest control, repairs, hoa fees, etc?

Re: Why the government took home prices out of its main inflation index

#300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in a popular vacation destination. The locals didn't panic when wealthy multiple-home owners started buying up houses because ... their property values were increasing! Now local business can't find workers, towns can't find employees all because housing is out of reach for the working and lower-middle class. Like boiling a frog, most people won't care until it's too late.

I don't agree with your way of thinking. I know it's extraordinarily popular, but I think there is a different, more productive way to think about this. Think of houses sold to outsiders as a form of export. It's the best form of export: the good you are selling does not leave the premises, and the local community continues to collect taxes on that. The outsider does not consume government services as much as a local…

So your approach is to maximize tax revenue for the inefficient governments to hopefully use for some purpose? Seems very ineffective to have loads of empty houses. What other purpose should a residential home serve than to house people that need housing?

The trend toward homes being investment and stores of value for the wealthy is contrary to the goals of building healthy communities that are not filled with ghost homes.

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