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S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

sfchronicle.com

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Re: S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

#331

Post by Schnitz »

marvin wrote: post #270
jethro_tell wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's another more bleak option. Just like in 2008 when corporations bought up huge swaths of the housing market for cash while no one could get a loan. (which is part of the current issue with not enough homes to buy) They aren't betting the market will come roaring back, they are betting that they can corner the market and housing will be a subscription just like everything else they sell. Rent seekers aren't goin…

This is a spooky narrative, but the rent seekers can't be the majority. My understanding is that many Californian real estate markets are kept artificially tight due to various forms of NIMBYism. If renters become the majority, it's suddenly no longer viable to limit new housing through regulation. Markets are nowhere near the fundamental limits of homes per square meter of the state that's good to live in.

Homeowners are a reliable political cohort, they tend to organize quickly as soon as any issues are on the agenda that might affect the value of their land and they will reliably push for whatever increases land values. They show up at city hall to make sure they are at least the loudest group on the issue. Homeowners are also diligent voters. You’ll need more than 50% of people to be renters to counter this, unless you can convince renters to organize as reliably and passionately as home owners.

Re: S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

#332

Post by bradlys »

twblalock wrote: post #211
999900000999 wrote: post #13

With even hybrid work models your living a better life living up in Sac and driving down once a week. This is a good thing. People should vote with their feet.

You can live cheaper in a lot of cities closer to San Francisco than Sac which still offer reasonable commutes. Most of the east bay, south bay, peninsula, etc.

I think the point was the cost. Sacramento is much cheaper than the peninsula.

Re: S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

#333

Post by Alex3917 »

ttymck wrote: post #135
birken wrote: post #37

One thing to note is that the 2021 population is an estimate , and if you are a Census buff as I am, and compare the Census' 2019 estimates to the 2020 actual populations (as calculated from the census), there are often very large differences. The article also says that CA's estimate of the population decline is much smaller, and arguably CA itself would have more accurate data for this particular metric (residency a…

I appreciate the point you are making, so I ask this genuinely: how confident are we in the census count? How confident are we usually, and how did that change given the hurdles the pandemic introduced?

Census data is wildly inaccurate. The percentage of people who fill out the census form is less than 20% in some neighborhoods. Whereas the city knows every time someone flushes a toilet or flips a light switch.

Re: S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

#334

Post by [deleted] »

8note wrote: post #153
floren wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even worse, the blob of suburbia is spread out in a ring around a giant body of water, and it's almost certain that the place you want to go is on the other side. So now it's 1+ hours on trains (assuming they even run near your destination) or dealing with the eternal traffic jams at the chokepoints across the bay.

Are there no water taxis? In Vancouver you just hop on a small boat and get a quick trip across, I think with your bus pass

[deleted]

Re: S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

#335

Post by systemvoltage »

wahern wrote: post #248
systemvoltage wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many people do not know but Newsom's ex-wife used to be Kimberly Guilfoyle: https://www.kqed.org/arts/13885405/kimberly-guilfoyle-used-t... Now, I don't vote based on character to a certain extent, but Newsom has both : Terrible policies and a terrible character.

I would find it difficult to have any respect for Newsom if all I knew about him was his social and business life. But the older I get the more I realize that character traits are distributed much more randomly than I ever believed. People want to believe, for example, that intelligence and compassion tend to come packaged together. But then you realize that there are quite alot of very malicious yet intelligent peop…

Nice, I like the poem.

Re: S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

#336

Post by j_walter »

gamblor956 wrote: post #279
j_walter wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rents are up across the country and you are right it's 20% in LA according to rent.com. However equating rental prices going up 12% in the past 12 months with "people coming roaring back" isn't really correct. I mean inflation is up >7% in the last 12 months. I wouldn't say NYC has had a huge roaring back of people...but rent is up 39% in the last year...triple what SF saw. You can have rental prices increase and tha…

You're just ignoring contrary data to fit your viewpoint. As I've pointed out many times, the apartment buildings in my neighborhood have waitlists for potential renters, and that's despite 20% YoY rent increases (or 16% rent increases, comparing pre- and post-COVID). Average vacancy is less than 1%, and that is true of all of the desirable neighborhoods in LA (of which there are too many to mention). Your own citati…

My viewpoint is that there is not enough evidence to support what you are saying. Also "your neighborhood" isn't the same thing as an entire city so you can't extrapolate a single small data point into a city wide theory.

I didn't see any of your data to show 16% increases of pre/post COVID...and the article is talking about SF which is 12% YoY.

Landlords absolutely charge market rate...which includes baseline costs for running rentals and they had much higher than normal non-payment over the last 2 years which means their costs are up, therefore rents are up.

I see no data to support your "thousands more rental units now"...in Portland they saw supply shrink over the past few years, and that was pre-COVID. With the recent increase in home values and 24+ months of potential non-payment a lot of small time landlords opted to sell (and we have a shit ton of people from California moving up here). https://assets.noviams.com/novi-file-uploads/mfnw/Files/arti...

Re: S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

#337

Post by thatfrenchguy »

ghaff wrote: post #39
peckrob wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know why it isn't being mentioned. I am not in the Bay Area myself, but about half of my friends there have relocated in the last couple years. A bunch to Washington or Oregon, some to Texas, one to Nashville, and a few others to places mostly in the northeast. All of them cited cost of living as the primary reason ... but all also mentioned full time remote work is what finally made it possible to move. When…

Even if you like San Francisco on balance, it's hard not to ask yourself if you like it so much that you're OK with paying for some of the most expensive housing in the country when you don't have a reason you have to be there.

Not a lot of places in the USA where you can take transit, walk around and be close to the beach and the mountains while having a garden and some space :)

Re: S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

#338

Post by RandomUser4567 »

givemeethekeys wrote: post #25
_fat_santa wrote: post #5

I think remote work is often understated in reasons people move away. When you go into the office every day, it's pretty obvious that you have to live in whatever city you live in. But with remote work, the question becomes "if I don't have to live here, do I want to keep living here". For many (including myself), the answer was a definitive NO. Sure many headlines and news segments make it seem that it's the crime,…

If SF was attractive, then people would want to remotely work from SF. But it isn't. So, they're leaving. On the other hand San Diego seems to be blowing up.

I have a family member in San Diego and it’s truly mind boggling how expensive things have become over the last couple years.

Re: S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

#339

Post by legerdemain »

ghaff wrote: post #318
legerdemain wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like it or not, SF has the most vibrant tech community than anywhere else. I live an hour away, and I make the painful, tedious drive up in rush-hour traffic at least once a week to meet up with some group or another in person. The alternative is the dreary, sleep-inducing vendor teleconferences that double as "meetups" on the Peninsula. I'm strongly considering ditching the Peninsula and moving to SF for better netw…

This is both the good and bad of living in area like the Bay. I'd find the idea of going in an evening a week with a tedious drive to do work-related stuff tedious at best.

The alternative is moving to the city, which is what I am strongly considering.

Re: S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

#340

Post by [deleted] »

wombat-man wrote: post #289
trimbo wrote: post #267

So many houses in my SF neighborhood are currently empty. They're single family homes so I'm not sure of the impact on the overall population, but it's been weird around here. - For sale and empty. - Full renovations. Guessing more than half are flipping them, given the speed which construction started after sale. - Investors buying homes and keeping them empty.

Some people renovate before moving in. Might as well customize it before the big move if you can afford it.

[deleted]
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