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S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

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Re: S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

#181
post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure. Cities lend themselves to different sorts of activities and have different pros and cons than do rural areas. Personally I get all the city stuff I want in short visits. I can see a play in a large city that is an hour drive away without living there.

That's fine but the parent implied it was objectively worse than living elsewhere

I think the parent was me :-) I actually like SF but some of the most expensive housing in the country is a high bar if you don't either have enough money that it's a non-issue or have to live there for employment or other reasons. There are many cities with solid city activities that aren't SF.

Re: S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

#182
post #103
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know why it isn't being mentioned. I am not in the Bay Area myself, but about half of my friends there have relocated in the last couple years. A bunch to Washington or Oregon, some to Texas, one to Nashville, and a few others to places mostly in the northeast. All of them cited cost of living as the primary reason ... but all also mentioned full time remote work is what finally made it possible to move. When…

I live in the south Bay Area. The local public school district has been steadily losing enrollment due to the high cost of living. The district administrator I talked with said that based on student records transfer requests, some families have moved further east and south into the sprawling exurbs, and many others moved to Texas.

I entered 2020 thinking I'd settle in the Bay Area, but stats like these accelerating over the past couple year make me feel fortunate I sat it out.

Re: S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

#183

If you compare rent trends of SF vs NYC or LA https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/san-francisco-ca https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/new-york-ny https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/los-angeles-ca You'll notice a huge difference between in SF and the other cities. Rent prices still hasn't gone back to pre pandemic level.

*But SF Bay surrounding communities have seen rent back up to pre-pandemic levels. So this trend seems SF city proper specific.

https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/palo-alto-ca

https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/los-altos-ca

https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/sunnyvale-ca

https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/san-jose-ca

https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/santa-clara-ca

https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/walnut-creek-ca

https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/fremont-ca

https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/dublin-ca

https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/south-san-francisco-ca

https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/san-carlos-ca

Re: S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

#184

I went to SF over last weekend and thought of stopping by Walgreens (Pharmacy) to pick up eye drops. I had to call the associate to unlock the cabinet doors to pick them up. Took 5-10 mins to just get hold of someone with a key ring the size of a coconut. Every cabinet was locked from toothpaste to tampons. This is at the Walgreens near Union Square which is still better than other areas. People are leaving because o…

> I wish San Franciscans would stop defending themselves and admit that things are actually worse and whatever politics they're advocating hasn't worked. This extends more generally to California (and other west coast states).

> I voted for Shellenberger for Governor of CA. Felt right.

FWIW, people like Newsom openly admit the scale of the problems and the roadblocks which radicalized "progressivism" present to California. Newsom has even openly admitted that some of his own policies as mayor of San Francisco were somewhat foolhardy and naive in retrospect, including his housing and drug policies. (And he did so not as a sound bite to impress voters, but buried in speeches and interviews and backed up by substantive reasons for why they were so.) Mayor Breed has also expressed mea culpas of her own. And both have expressed extreme frustration with many of the (invariably) Democrats they must work with.

Breed's become so frustrated recently she event started swearing--"less tolerant of all the bullshit that has destroyed our city”--and almost seemed to lose her composure in an interview when asked how she felt about Boudin's policies.[1][2]

My voting strategy is two-fold: 1) Any politician that can admit they were wrong about substantive policy issues deserves my vote, period, especially when such admissions come with potential cost, are unforced, and relate to relatively recent policies. 2) As politics is the art of the possible, I appreciate that I need to vote for someone who knows how to play the game. Newsom and Breed are both savvy players, and they're career players. That turns alot of people off. But that's politics. Being a savvy player is a sine quo non of a good politician. (And by savvy I don't mean being good at soundbites or playing to voter sentiment, but know how to wheel and deal and pull triggers in smoke-filled rooms--palace intrigue type stuff.)

When a candidate demonstrates political savvy while also credibly expressing some honesty and sensibility, then the choice quickly becomes easy. Both Newsom and Breed have done that, IMO. It's difficult for me to expect more out of them at this point. One of my benchmarks for a virtuous politician is Senator Russ Feingold. But Senator Feingold lost Wisconsin in 2010. He couldn't match his virtuousness with his savviness. Both Wisconsin and the U.S. as a whole probably would have better off with a little less virtue and a little more savvy from Feingold.

Ideas are cheap. We don't need people like Shellenberger in office. They'll be ineffective. We need people who are capable of hearing what people like Shellenberger are proposing, and then to the degree its possible (and often it won't be possible at all) translate that not just into effective policy or literal legislation, but a sufficient number of actual legislative votes.

Regarding Newsom's privately sensibilities on energy policy, he's personally far more conservative than you'd think. Circa 2005 Newsom mothballed a donated gas power plant in San Francisco, but that wasn't his first choice. He was coerced into it--coerced by a lawyer friend of mine advocating for the surrounding community and who defly threatend (in person, from across the table) Newsom with a scorched-earth public relations campaign which Newsom knew he couldn't win. Newsom, understanding that politics is the art of the possible, relented. It was battle he could never have won if forced out into the open. By relenting he built capital--environmental policy credibility--that could come in handy one day. Like, for example, today: https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2022-04-29/califor...

[1] https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/mayor-breed-orders...

[2] https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/13/opinion/sway-kara-swisher...

Re: S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

#185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I actually know several people who used this as an opportunity to move into the Bay Area. The sudden drop in rents made it more attractive and they jumped. They both work in industries where face to face communication is a competitive advantage. It’s easy to forget that not every job is naturally compatible with remote work like it is for those of us who type on computers all day.

> sudden drop in rents Curious, Why aren't properly prices droping to reflect the loss in population.

We are still in the early stages of the bubble deflating.

Re: S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

#186

The most regrettable thing is that it's those who bear the most responsibility for the city being less desirable (in a multitude of unrelated but compounding ways) are the ones with the most ability to just move elsewhere. I wish these people had to sleep in the bed they made.

The idea that people who simply decide to live somewhere are guilty of some moral failing is preposterous. Hold your elected leaders accountable for not doing their job.

Re: S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

#187
post #4

Quoted post unavailable.

20-30 years ago San Francisco was considered... a nightmarish hellscape. Until the first dotcom boom the city was in decline, or at least that's how the story goes. My understanding is that at that time it also had a booming art scene and was going through an awesome counter culture phase that birthed Burning Man. Maybe that's what's ahead now that everyone is leaving? Videos showing the drug problem are terrifying t…

> 20-30 years ago San Francisco was considered... a nightmarish hellscape.

Not true in the slightest. There was little crime, you could walk everywhere safely, day or night, and the food was still incredible, and cheap.

Major parts of the city were on a roadmap towards revitalization before dotcom was ever a thing. Yerba Buena Gardens was competed in 1993, for example. No disruption required.

> Until the first dotcom boom the city was in decline, or at least that's how the story goes.

It’s the exact opposite. The city was undergoing major revitalization before the dotcom era. The first dotcom boom brought major gentrification, and with it, people who didn’t care for the values and culture of the city.

Re: S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

#188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For cities in general there's much more to do compared to low density areas. Restaurants, entertainment, other people. All of this within a decent traveling distance.

Sure, but most who leave SF will choose a smaller metro area, not a rural area. What I have found in my time in the Bay Area is a general ignorance of how many smaller metro areas have developed more vibrant urban centers over the past 10 years. The people from these cities who went home for the first time in a decade are finding surprisingly livable metros waiting for them, closer to aging family.

A lot of smaller cities have developed gentrified cores. Mind you, these cores can be pretty small. You may have a relative handful of restaurants and bars you like and they may lack some of the cultural amenities of a larger city. But I know a couple who just sold their presumably very appreciated house in a major metro and moved somewhere smaller.
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