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Why the government took home prices out of its main inflation index

fullstackeconomics.com

181–190 of 344 posts

Re: Why the government took home prices out of its main inflation index

#181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> home prices have been absolutely bonkers, with two massive bubbles (we are in one right now) Isn't the definition of a bubble that it has the capability to pop and then eventually pops? At least for urban housing, I see no way of that even being remotely possible, neither for the US nor here in Europe. Rural areas simply are too far left behind to support decent human life - no high speed Internet, no public transp…

Is this actually happening in Europe? The US is the exact opposite. It's rather trivial to improve rural areas and housing costs are outpacing urban areas at least in percentage increases. Most rural areas still have access to all the basics that urban areas provide and are only a couple hours drive from major urban centers. There's no public transport but no one cares about that in the US. Even in the largest cities…

People define "rural" vastly differently - most "rural" areas in the USA are actually peppered with small towns (between 10 and 10k residents) which can be covered by high speed internet and even effective public transportation if desired - in a small enough town that can just be a guy with a van hired by the township.

All you're really missing then is the connection to the nearest urban center - if it takes an hour to drive into town it's not much different than taking an hour to drive across town, after all.

Re: Why the government took home prices out of its main inflation index

#182
post #108
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Starlink is a real gamechanger. My dad's house in Maine a little ways from a small city had 1Mbps "broadband." Houses further down the road had nothing wired and all the Plan Bs (conventional satellite/hotspot) were lousy options. While Starlink isn't 100% reliable I could actually work from there if I wanted to.

Could you? I have been remote for about 4 years and I have difficulty doing my job if my internet goes out for even an hour during my working time. I also have issues doing my job if I can’t stream audio/video due to speed issues- and this happens even with a hardwired connection on occasion.

Starling reliability is usually the "it goes down for a few minutes" type of failures, vs the "it's down for the day" you get (more rarely) with wired.

I'm semi-rural and I still get 2-4 times a year where my cable drops out, which I suspect is due to moisture in the lines as it seems to usually happen during spring thaws.

They're bringing in fiber at some point soon.

Re: Why the government took home prices out of its main inflation index

#183
post #41

I still argue for that central banks got inflation wrong. Central banks set inflation target to to percent to try and control wage inflation. But wage inflation are globalized. So I argue that central banks tried to control local wage increase on a globalized market which is impossible. Central banks cannot control price increases on global market. Also central banks did not take into account increased housing prices…

> Thus central banks cannot control inflation in a global market.

Japan enters the chat

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGJPN

Re: Why the government took home prices out of its main inflation index

#184
post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The government lets you deduct your mortgage interest from taxes This is effectively not true anymore. > Also, what am I going to do instead, rent? My rent can go up $50 bucks a year where my mortgage payment is locked in. For most people, home ownership is the safest and best way to build a retirement nest egg and a tangible asset to borrow against in times of trouble. I'm going to push back a touch on this, it's…

>> The government lets you deduct your mortgage interest from taxes > > This is effectively not true anymore. Care to explain? Is this because the standard deduction is so high, it's generally not worth itemizing for most people since the Trump tax system adjustment? Genuinely curious; I'm a current renter, hopefully purchasing in the next couple of years. But this is an important part of the buying calculus.

They're correct; at least for the short term. A quick search tells me itemized deduction returns are only ~10% of tax returns right now, down from ~26% before the TCJA. So if you're MFJ you'd need ~$25,000 of home interest and other deductions before you'd even break even itemizing. Not counting the hassle of itemizing vs just claiming the standard deduction.

But the higher standard deduction is set to expire in just 3 years (2025)[0], which will cut it in half. That may or may not get extended. So you may want to calculate if you'd be in the ~26% of filers who'd benefit from itemizing if it did expire.

[0] https://taxfoundation.org/look-ahead-expiring-tax-provisions...

Re: Why the government took home prices out of its main inflation index

#185
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The CPI includes rent (and owner's imputed rent). No one needs to purchase real estate. That's an investment, not a living expense. Millions of people have started families in rented homes.

You don't need to purchase a home - but historically - if you did - you've been much better off financially. It's the same as saying you don't NEED to go to college. No, you don't. You don't need much of anything... But if you did go to college - whether through correlation or causation - statistically you are much better off. So if college and housing get out of reach for most people - then maybe they will be worse…

That's a non sequitur. Investing in real estate can be a good financial option for many people, but it's irrelevant to the CPI. The Federal Reserve publishes reports on household wealth and the home ownership rate if that's what you want. Current home ownership rate is 65%, so obviously it's within reach for most people. College enrollment levels are also near record highs, so while expensive it's not out of reach either.

Re: Why the government took home prices out of its main inflation index

#186
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Back when it was normal to buy a house and support a family on a single income? Nearly impossible now. Sounds like there are some serious flaws with that index.

Also while I can’t find internet sources, from talking to old people I get the impression most Americans had 15 year mortgages back the.

They still exist, 10, 15, 20, 25?, 30 years are all available.

But most people don't search for the most value-effective house, they ask how much house can they buy and then buy that.

If you're willing to step outside the east-coast corridors and/or break from suburban to "commuting rural" or further, it is quite possible to get a 10 year mortgage on a house on the median income.

Re: Why the government took home prices out of its main inflation index

#187
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To which you add, people that buy houses want to be able to sell making a large benefit. So you profit from using it (by living in it or renting it) and sell it for more than you did put into it...

Do they plan to live in a tent after they 'used' the house and sold it? Because if they plan to buy a new house to replace the one they sold, they haven't made any money. And if they want to upgrade, they lost money and the price difference will have increased. The only case where you benefit from rising hoise prices is if all of your income comes from owning property, rather than working a job - i.e. you are a major…

They can either downsize towards the end of their life, move to a less desirable housing market (because there are no jobs in it), or take a loan against their home.

Re: Why the government took home prices out of its main inflation index

#188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Housing prices are affected by monetary and psychological aspects just like the stock market and inflation are. If people stop believing housing is a good investment then prices will fall.

> If people stop believing housing is a good investment then prices will fall. People need something to live in though, and as long as the demand for places to live is higher than the supply, rents and purchase prices will keep going up.

The population hasn't increased much (or maybe at all) in the last 2 years yet prices have sky rocketed - why is that?

Re: Why the government took home prices out of its main inflation index

#189
post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you? I have been remote for about 4 years and I have difficulty doing my job if my internet goes out for even an hour during my working time. I also have issues doing my job if I can’t stream audio/video due to speed issues- and this happens even with a hardwired connection on occasion.

Starling reliability is usually the "it goes down for a few minutes" type of failures, vs the "it's down for the day" you get (more rarely) with wired. I'm semi-rural and I still get 2-4 times a year where my cable drops out, which I suspect is due to moisture in the lines as it seems to usually happen during spring thaws. They're bringing in fiber at some point soon.

I've definitely seen Starlink go down for a few hours at my brother's place a couple times when I've been up there. At home, I've had longer outages with Comcast but usually it's more like going briefly in and out over the course of the day. It's better than it was and it's pretty much good enough as far as I'm concerned.

Re: Why the government took home prices out of its main inflation index

#190
post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you speak clearly and plainly about these topics? It's factually true housing prices aren't included in the CPI, but it's not easy to explain why and how replacing it with the somewhat abstract notion of housing services , estimated by owner equivalent rent is conceptually superior.

I would say the easiest way to explain it is, as implied by the "C", that CPI is intended to track consumption. Houses aren't normally consumed. Your house a decade from now is expected to be, more or less, the same house you purchased originally. You expect, more or less, to be able to sell it for at least as much as you paid for it originally. Whereas a consumable good, like food, is used up once you eat it and the…

> Houses aren't normally consumed.

That is just a technicality. Housing is the greatest one time and recurring expense most people have and change in prices for housing has the greatest impact on their perception of how expensive things are.

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