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Why the government took home prices out of its main inflation index

fullstackeconomics.com

11–20 of 344 posts

Re: Why the government took home prices out of its main inflation index

#11
post #2

Quoted post unavailable.

Your statement is actually addressed in tfa, in the first couple of paragraphs (now, it's in the context of a switch made to the index in 1983, but I think it's just as relevant today):

>This methodological innovation understandably sets off alarm bells among people who are predisposed to distrust the government.

Re: Why the government took home prices out of its main inflation index

#12
I think one should have one's own inflation index. Basically I'd layout the expenses (food, utility, mortgage, child day care, etc.) and go from there. Some expenses inflates every year (food/utility), some are fixed for 5 years and then maybe jump up/down (mortgage, depending if Fed is cutting or hiking rates).

Re: Why the government took home prices out of its main inflation index

#13
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I do like the latter, a house is a fairly rare purchase in one's life. Admittedly, a very major, rare purchase. But typically a rare one nonetheless. My weekly grocery runs are more indicative of CPI to me.

Sure, but housing prices will directly effect the price someone can buy and offer it to be rented out which has a huge monthly effect on a large portion of the population.

Yes, which is why they include rent and the rental value for purchased homes

Re: Why the government took home prices out of its main inflation index

#15

For those that only read the headline, the article is much more interesting. There's a paper that recreated what the inflation rate would have been with the old method, and it tracks the new method closely, but just has more volatility. Plus, "the government" didn't take home prices out, they just switched to a different approach to tracking them.

Shadowstats.com has been tracking inflation with old methods for a long time

Re: Why the government took home prices out of its main inflation index

#16
post #15

For those that only read the headline, the article is much more interesting. There's a paper that recreated what the inflation rate would have been with the old method, and it tracks the new method closely, but just has more volatility. Plus, "the government" didn't take home prices out, they just switched to a different approach to tracking them.

Shadowstats.com has been tracking inflation with old methods for a long time

No it hasn't. The numbers on that site are fiction.

Re: Why the government took home prices out of its main inflation index

#17
post #2

Quoted post unavailable.

While I do like the latter, a house is a fairly rare purchase in one's life. Admittedly, a very major, rare purchase. But typically a rare one nonetheless. My weekly grocery runs are more indicative of CPI to me.

rarely do people buy houses (for living) with cash.

Re: Why the government took home prices out of its main inflation index

#18
The big problem is people believing that there is any one such thing as inflation.

There isn’t. The word inflation represents many, including wildly divergent, ideas.

And many of the very different things represented by inflation serve very different purposes, and that’s why they’re changed, because different measures of inflation help measure different concepts. Core inflation is just one of many different measures of inflation.

Re: Why the government took home prices out of its main inflation index

#19

The big problem is people believing that there is any one such thing as inflation. There isn’t. The word inflation represents many, including wildly divergent, ideas. And many of the very different things represented by inflation serve very different purposes, and that’s why they’re changed, because different measures of inflation help measure different concepts. Core inflation is just one of many different measures…

Sure, everyone has it's own personal inflation, but I don't see why can't we look at aggregate data.

Re: Why the government took home prices out of its main inflation index

#20
https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-median-annual-inco...

nb that there is little relation to interest rates, which have been steadily declining since 82:

https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

with the recent spike, we are currently at ~2000 interest rates, when homes were at 4x incomes, rather than 7+x

home prices have been absolutely bonkers, with two massive bubbles (we are in one right now) and the fact that this doesn't show up proportionally in inflation numbers is either malicious, stupid or both

the really psychotic aspect of this all is that in the long run it will destroy the economy as family formation craters (too expensive to start a family)

maybe that's the idea, I can't make much sense of it

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