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Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

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Re: Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

#141
post #68

How is the CEO not out of a job yet?

Legit question, regardless of the downvotes. The answer, as far as I can see, is that founder and CEO Reed Hastings still has enough clout and power within the organization and its board that he can hold onto his position. However, he's got a lot of repair work to do, and I think he knows it.

Re: Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

#142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When a drop in stock price is disproportionate to the available news, then you can be sure that the real cause of that drop is due to major players and insiders getting out because they know more than the public does and more problems are about to come out.

Catching a falling knife can be dangerous (literally or metaphorically).

But catch it right and you dont need to wash it.. okay that didnt really make sense but I've been lucky with a few stocks that got heavily (over)sold in AH and gaped up significantly at the open.

If you grabbed 500 shares of NFLX in AH and it opens at 91 that could be an easy $2500. Super high risk though YMMV.

Re: Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

#143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How would this accelerate copyright/IP reform?

It's a great example of the excessive control given to rights holders, so excessive that a prominent company like Netflix ($300/share is certainly not something to shirk) and similar hypothetical businesses can be totally gutted at the pleasure of a handful of production companies and/or publishers. The diminution of Netflix is no small matter and will hopefully serve as a very visible demonstration of the cruel absu…

> businesses can be totally gutted at the pleasure of a handful of production companies and/or publishers

If this were true, those studios would go out of business and more cooperative studios would rise up to replace them within a few years.

> $300/share is certainly not something to shirk

The important metric is market capitalization (share price multiplied by number of issued shares). Netflix's market cap is an optimistic $5 billion. Apple is $377 billion, equal to 75 Netflixes.

Re: Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

#144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, but Amazon is in a heavy infrastructure, heavy competition, low margin business. And their margins are small and getting smaller. 2% or so IIRC. They're less poised for explosive growth than Apple. On the other hand, they're here for the long haul. Apple is spending a lot on infrastructure, but they're in a lower competition, high margin business. 38% margin IIRC. (yes, there's competition. But Amazon's compet…

"Right, but Amazon is in a heavy infrastructure, heavy competition, low margin business. And their margins are small and getting smaller. 2% or so IIRC." Amazon's gross profit ran north of 20% last quarter. ( http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:AMZN&fstype=ii ) They're a dominant player in both online retail and cloud services, they're now providing cloud services to government entities, and they're growing like c…

I'm totally in agreement about Apple being big, and I don't see them becoming 4x bigger than the next largest company. I think, from a financial POV it would make sense to spin stuff off, so that each part has a chance to become as big as the whole. From a synergy POV, that's daft. Apple gets a ton of benefit from being one unified whole. Apple's big issue now is to avoid replaying the sideways fall of microsoft in their own way.

Amazon's cloud services are small, looking like estimated 750 million this year vs something like 40 billionish sales for the year. Their expenses look roughly consistent on a yoy basis, the last couple of quarters are pushing up the r/d spending, but that's possibly the difference between quarterly revenue (strong variation within the year) and a constant increase in r/d. That might be shaving a bit off, but it doesn't change the nature of their business. Amazon makes most of their money selling other people's physical goods. They mark them up. They are competing on price with WalMart, Target, and the wholesale club stores. On the other hand, they're competing well with local businesses by shipping stuff for free and providing a consistent customer experience.

They're totally different companies. My rational expectation is that Amazon would be a low PE stock, and Apple would be high. I'm not going to short things waiting for the market to come around to my sense of rationality.

Re: Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

#146
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be absolutely fair, though, NFLX should in no way, shape, or form be worth anywhere near $300 a share. Even $50 is pushing it. I'd think settling somewhere between 30-40/shr. is a good premium. They have to have multiple pipelines of revenue aside from "streaming non-recent movies and tv shows." Here's a strategy they can try: If they can score some day-after-airing TV shows a la Hulu and have them available for 3…

> I'd think settling somewhere between 30-40/shr. is a good premium. $30-$40/share would give it a P/E multiple of between 7.5 and 10. Netflix has trailing 5-year EPS growth of around 35%. You may hate the company and the stock, but $30-$40/share would have it trading at a discount to other companies with similar growth histories. There's no case to be made for $40 being a premium for NFLX.

In that case (trading on discount) you are better suited utilizing one of several options trading strategies...

Re: Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

#147
post #134
post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A credit score is maintained by a credit bureau, so potential lenders can check up on how "good" a potential borrower is before making a deal. https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Credit_score So having a low one makes it difficult and expensive to get a loan or any kind of credit.

That's correct, but it's not quite that simple. If my car dies, I won't be able to get anywhere, because I can't get a loan for a new one. When we move to a new apartment, they won't allow us to have Internet service. I am not exaggerating in the slightest. AT&T U-Verse already denied me once in the past, before I got my score to 760 --- they refused me service. Completely. No alternatives. It didn't matter to them w…

and you've got no recourse? sheeesh! what a screwed up system

I sincerely hope you're able to get things sorted. Thanks for the explanation

Re: Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

#148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

still cost less than a decent meal So many great things on the web cost less than a single cup of Starbucks. Yet, I myself am so hesitant to pay for them. On my landing pages I design at work, I'm increasingly trying to communicate this via comparisons("less than a morning Starbucks trip"). Another one is showing a dollar bill to communicate that for less than a dollar a day, they will get _____. For a service that w…

The reason I think long and hard before signing up for new web services isn't even the cost 99% of the time, but the uncertainty in how difficult it is going to be to cancel should I decide I do not want to continue. I've had it UP TO HERE with services that allow me to subscribe with one click and then make me go through a half-day long ordeal of phone calls to outsourced customer service people (who earn bonuses ba…

I believe the problem is credit cards. They shouldn't be able to suck money out of you each month. You should have to send them money each month. If you don't want the service any more, don't send them money.

Re: Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

#149
post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mine was the opposite experience. It wasn't really the same situation as yours, so maybe this is totally irrelevant. But here's my story, just incase. My health insurance denied my coverage for a Dr's appointment ("pre existing condition") a month or two after the appointment. I had moved by then, and apparently the mail didn't get forwarded or something. The dr's eventually turned me over to some California collecti…

excuse my ignorance, but what's a credit score and why does it matter? I can see it's a Bad Thing to have a low one, but in what way does it impact someone?

I'm sorry, as this is rather off-topic, but are you by any chance unfamiliar with credit scores because they don't exist in Australia? If so, how do lending institutions gauge your credit-worthiness, and how do you set expectations about the same? I am just curious how this works outside of the US.

Re: Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

#150
post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mine was the opposite experience. It wasn't really the same situation as yours, so maybe this is totally irrelevant. But here's my story, just incase. My health insurance denied my coverage for a Dr's appointment ("pre existing condition") a month or two after the appointment. I had moved by then, and apparently the mail didn't get forwarded or something. The dr's eventually turned me over to some California collecti…

excuse my ignorance, but what's a credit score and why does it matter? I can see it's a Bad Thing to have a low one, but in what way does it impact someone?

Credit score or credit history is the way the US build trust in you as a customer.

Other places, like in Denmark for instance you are by default considered a trust-worthy customer and only if you start not paying your bills does it affect your ability to get a loan etc.

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