Yes, that pretty much sums it up.
Once emissions stop on BTC, fees should have to increase to replace the emissions. Except that fees won't increase because fewer people will be using the network, having long moved to L2's. The majority of transactions will be checkpoint transactions for L2's.
If you zoom out, transactions per block have flatlined, even during this last couple year bull run...
https://www.blockchain.com/charts/n-transactions-per-block
Miners will stop mining because they depended on the emissions and not just the fees. Difficulty will go down and so will power usage, but the network will remain as secure because of the adjustments.
This is part of why we see such a large land grab right now to mine as much BTC as possible. I'm sure Saylor owns large stakes in mining companies.