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Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

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Re: Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

#81

I have friends who were outraged at Netflix price increase. And I mean serious outrage. I did notice that the ones who were really outraged are running tight on money. One of them works and goes to school full time so an extra $8/month after tuition, rent, even though it's marginal seems like a LOT and for no additional benefit.

I canceled my subscription. Not because of the price increase but the cavalier manner in which the increase was communicated. The presumptuous email re: the increase really pissed me off. It has also made more more careful with communications with our user-base.

Re: Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

#82
post #39

I was looking at purchasing shares in Netflix the first time the stock dropped. I believe at that time netflix was trading at 35x earnings. At the close today it was 30x earnings and now even lower in after hours trading. I never bought the shares because of the high multiple. However, I believe the current bad news is a blip on the radar in what will continue to be a tremendously successful company. Can someone expl…

I jumped in at $86 after hours, with only 100 shares. They just simply got decimated after hours, but it felt pretty overdone, especially with only losing 800k customers. Seems worth it to take a stab. That being said, the business model is doomed. They don't control the content, so they are essentially a technology company. Their technology is great, I had them for a few months, but unless they own the content they…

When a drop in stock price is disproportionate to the available news, then you can be sure that the real cause of that drop is due to major players and insiders getting out because they know more than the public does and more problems are about to come out.

Re: Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

#83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reason I think long and hard before signing up for new web services isn't even the cost 99% of the time, but the uncertainty in how difficult it is going to be to cancel should I decide I do not want to continue. I've had it UP TO HERE with services that allow me to subscribe with one click and then make me go through a half-day long ordeal of phone calls to outsourced customer service people (who earn bonuses ba…

It's gotten better, but I used to call up my bank and ask for a new debit card once or twice per year rather than having to deal with the hell of canceling various services. It was fun to that the same companies who made cancel-ling impossible would call me up to tell me that billing had failed.

Do they ever send you to collections? I hear that's an even worse nightmare.

Re: Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

#84

Honestly curious, where did those users go? Back to $40 shitcable? Torrenting?

I have both Redbox and those Blockbuster kiosks on my way to and from work (during the part I walk) and so I can get a $1 DVD when I want rather than managing when something will arrive.

I can get a lot from my library. While I don't get to always choose the timing for inter-library loans, I can get a season of television for two weeks at a time. With Netflix, I just get individual DVDs.

Some of the things I want to watch are already online for streaming like South Park. There's a lot of content on Hulu as well and network sites can be overlooked as sources of content.

I think the price hike made a lot of people think about how they used Netflix. When it was a combined service, people thought "oh, I'm getting this interesting combined service" and ended there. Now people are seeing $16/mo for 3-DVDs at a time and wondering. In order to get to the $1/DVD level, you'd have to get 4 per week. I think a lot of people didn't have that high a velocity of DVDs. You get one shipped to you on monday, it arrives tuesday, I find that there's usually at least 2-3 days of it being at my house between finding the time to watch it and forgetting it in the morning, it gets into the post on thursday or friday, gets to Netflix friday or saturday, and basically you've got a week turn-around time. And if you're getting multiple out at a time, it's hard to watch that much content - and watch it consistently month-to-month. Likewise, I think that people ran through a lot of the streaming content. I also think that the on-demand streaming just doesn't allow me to find things well. It keeps showing me the stuff I've already seen and things it thinks I'm going to rate as 2-3 stars. I understand that Netflix went to this less-search, more-browsing interface because their streaming catalogue isn't complete, but it keeps showing me things I don't want to watch and on rare occasions I've had friends tell me about things I didn't know were on there.

So, I think people have been taking stock of Netflix. Netflix raised their prices a mere 9 months prior on them and then again. 3 DVDs plus streaming went from $17 to $20 at the start of 2011 and then from $20 to $24 at the end of summer 2011. For me, there's a genuine feeling that these price increases might continue. I mean, if Netflix goes up another 40% over the next year, that's getting pretty close to "$40 shitcable". Likewise, I surveyed my other options and found them better. I can get a whole season of TV at a time from my library for two weeks. No worrying about how quickly I get disks back into the mail or being annoyed by not having the next disk. New releases I can get from kiosks the night I want them and drop them off on my way to work the next morning and only pay $1. A decent amount of programming is streamable online. Maybe that isn't for you. It's working nicely for me.

I have no hard feelings for Netflix, but I find this works better for me while being cheaper. Their streaming collection held my interest for a while and then began seeming like the re-runs of shows in the 6-8pm time slot - sure, they could be good shows, but they weren't necessarily what you were looking for. For me, Netflix solved the problem of rental stores charging me $5 for a DVD. For basically that price, I could get 3-DVDs at a time. Now I'm finding that I can get a $1 DVD from a kiosk (and can often get coupons for those machines) and grab it when I want on my way home. My library can provide me with deeper selection and it costs me nothing (I have to pay the taxes whether I use it or not) and I don't feel as on-the-clock as I do with Netflix. If I return one I didn't watch, well, I can get it again some other time and haven't lost anything - which isn't the feeling I get from Netflix.

I'm not saying they're a bad service or it shouldn't work for you. I just think there's increase competition from cheap, kiosk-based rentals and that people have been taking stock of how they use their Netflix and finding it a bit lacking. I mean, if you've kept the same DVDs home for a month and haven't watched them, that isn't Netflix's fault, but it does mean that you aren't enjoying a lot of value there. A price increase simply brings that to your attention and makes you think about eliminating it from your expenses.

Re: Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

#85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

P/E is only one metric and it's potentially very deceptive. You're using a PE that's uncorrected for expenses that are essentially investment in future business growth rather than a fundamental part of the business model. Amazon, for example, is hiring tons of new employees to build out its AWS business; that's a positive sign (it shows they believe that's a good investment) but in the short term it will drive down t…

Right, but Amazon is in a heavy infrastructure, heavy competition, low margin business. And their margins are small and getting smaller. 2% or so IIRC. They're less poised for explosive growth than Apple. On the other hand, they're here for the long haul. Apple is spending a lot on infrastructure, but they're in a lower competition, high margin business. 38% margin IIRC. (yes, there's competition. But Amazon's compet…

"Right, but Amazon is in a heavy infrastructure, heavy competition, low margin business. And their margins are small and getting smaller. 2% or so IIRC."

Amazon's gross profit ran north of 20% last quarter. (http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:AMZN&fstype=ii) They're a dominant player in both online retail and cloud services, they're now providing cloud services to government entities, and they're growing like crazy. They're hiring like crazy and that's driving down their net income (I think they hired like 30% of their employees in the past year.) The market clearly believes they're on their way to double or quadruple their business over the next few years as more shoppers go online and more services go to AWS.

Apple is doing great, but they're 4X the size of Amazon in terms of market cap, and arguably at their "peak" in terms of everything going their way. They're going to keep growing, but they're already the largest company by market cap... are they likely to double? The market doesn't seem to believe that. Is that right? I don't know... it just seems to be what the pricing currently indicates.

Edit: It's also worth noting that spending on infrastructure does not have the same effect as spending on employees. Infrastructure costs are spread out over the life of the equipment, whereas payroll is expensed as incurred.

Re: Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

#86
post #19

I feel bad for Netflix. They're between a rock and a hard place. The content providers want more money and eventually want to cut out the middleman. The users balk when the price is raised, even though unlimited streaming and DVDs for a month still cost less than a decent meal. And every decision they make (like Qwikster, which was likely done so they didn't have to pay content providers a fee for users who weren't s…

I think it's because the lack of tangibility (in any real sense) makes it seem less valuable. I had an experience where I said "pay $7000 for my service with a computer included" or "pay $5000 and byoc" and i've so far had everyone choose the $7000 option. It's just a matter of connection / tangibility. You know what starbucks tastes like, so you're willing to pay. You know what an iPhone feels like, so you can buy i…

I am not sure in your example people picked the "with computer" option because it was tangible. I am guessing that anyone who can afford 5,000 for a service can afford a couple of grand to avoid the hassle of purchasing and setting up a computer. If your service was worth $100, then I would indeed find that remarkable.

Re: Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

#87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I jumped in at $86 after hours, with only 100 shares. They just simply got decimated after hours, but it felt pretty overdone, especially with only losing 800k customers. Seems worth it to take a stab. That being said, the business model is doomed. They don't control the content, so they are essentially a technology company. Their technology is great, I had them for a few months, but unless they own the content they…

When a drop in stock price is disproportionate to the available news, then you can be sure that the real cause of that drop is due to major players and insiders getting out because they know more than the public does and more problems are about to come out.

I'll have to check my datafeed, but it doesn't seem like there was a disproportionately large amount of volume after hours.

The major players and insiders don't get out after the earnings release, they get out weeks before during the distribution phase. Most after-hours action is algo-bots and retail investors.

The real action starts tomorrow morning, so get your popcorn ready!

Re: Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

#88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

still cost less than a decent meal So many great things on the web cost less than a single cup of Starbucks. Yet, I myself am so hesitant to pay for them. On my landing pages I design at work, I'm increasingly trying to communicate this via comparisons("less than a morning Starbucks trip"). Another one is showing a dollar bill to communicate that for less than a dollar a day, they will get _____. For a service that w…

The reason I think long and hard before signing up for new web services isn't even the cost 99% of the time, but the uncertainty in how difficult it is going to be to cancel should I decide I do not want to continue. I've had it UP TO HERE with services that allow me to subscribe with one click and then make me go through a half-day long ordeal of phone calls to outsourced customer service people (who earn bonuses ba…

George - that is really incredible feedback. thank you for that comment.

Re: Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

#89

Honestly curious, where did those users go? Back to $40 shitcable? Torrenting?

In my case, I simply went without. Contrary to the way people seem to act, entertainment is neither a right, or a requirement. I get by just fine without movies or television shows.

Fair enough, but you could tell us what you do that you didn't used to.

I ride more, play board games, and read more.

Re: Netflix loses 800,000 subscribers (stock drops 28%)

#90

I feel bad for Netflix. They're between a rock and a hard place. The content providers want more money and eventually want to cut out the middleman. The users balk when the price is raised, even though unlimited streaming and DVDs for a month still cost less than a decent meal. And every decision they make (like Qwikster, which was likely done so they didn't have to pay content providers a fee for users who weren't s…

still cost less than a decent meal So many great things on the web cost less than a single cup of Starbucks. Yet, I myself am so hesitant to pay for them. On my landing pages I design at work, I'm increasingly trying to communicate this via comparisons("less than a morning Starbucks trip"). Another one is showing a dollar bill to communicate that for less than a dollar a day, they will get _____. For a service that w…

Your web apps don't release dopamine into my bloodstream. Your iPhone game doesn't give me a headache if I don't play it. I can't take a girl on a date to your eBook PDF.

The reason that digital goods _seem_ more expensive is because the result we get _is_ less valuable to us as human beings. It's hard to pay money for things that leave you exactly as you were before - sitting in a chair, looking at a screen.

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