Earlier quoted context omitted.
Is there strong evidence yet that this is a 2010-bubble-pop vs a 2020-bubble-pop? The last few years were particularly nuts in a lot of speculative markets. Big difference between back to normal or even a bit slowed from 2019 and a huge downturn, but I'm not seeing indicators yet that things are gonna fall off a cliff. People are still spending a lot of money and demand for a lot of things is still high - that might…
> People are still spending a lot of money and demand for a lot of things is still high Yes, that is how you create a gigantic crash. Look at this graph, click 25 years, does this look to go in the right direction? The US economy is shifting more and more towards consumption of imported goods instead of producing things itself, this isn't sustainable. You see how the 2008 crash got the curve back and track, a similar…
Trade deficit is just as much an indicator for foreign sentiment to hold US cash, as it is to import non-US made stuff.
All that indicator says is that consumer behavior changes during a recession.
You can argue the same thing with private debt.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/private-debt-to-g...
https://www.econlib.org/library/Columns/y2017/KleinBoudreaux...