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Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

nytimes.com

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Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#561
post #368
post #340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> anyone who has hands on building experience would immediately recognize the difference in materials and construction techniques The point is that the differences are largely incremental. Same stick built frames, same flimsy building wrap, same poorly installed fiberglass batts. None of that compares to the quantum leap that was indoor plumbing, in home telecommunications, automatic kitchen and laundry machines. But…

Because the world runs out of quantum leaps at times. In theory we can 3d print houses now, but those are not more useful than a stick built house. They are very easy to change and repair which a feature most people like. The building wraps these days have rather insane R values and do a good job insulating the house. And most houses have some kind of blow in for insulation.

> The building wraps these days have rather insane R values and do a good job insulating the house

Building wraps have almost no R-Value. The basic function of building wraps is to keep water out, which is why they are called WRBs (Weather Resisting Barriers). Some higher end ones also block air infiltration, but those aren't used very much.

For example, staple up house wrap doesn't block air the way it's typically installed, whereas fully adhered wraps do a much better job of that.

Some sheathing systems (not house wrap) like Zip-R have insulation value, but not "insane" by any means. The maximum R-Value Zip-R gets you is 12 (at a big price premium compared to alternatives), and the code minimum for 2x4 walls is 13.

In many climate zones that experience both extremes of heat and cold, it makes a lot of sense for homeowners to exceed code minimums for insulation, although it makes less financial sense for production builders who are trying to minimize their build costs.

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#563

Because new technology is as Thiel often quips limited to the world of bits rather than the world of atoms. Paul Krugman once asked, if you go into an average house right now and you take out all the screens, could you tell that you're not in the 80s? Gordon in the Rise and Fall of American Growth gives a similar example, what if you went into a time capsule between say 1890 and 1950 compared to 1960 and 2010? In one…

Exactly. Gordon in the Rise and Fall of American Growth spells out the details of what real innovation looks like. Peter Drucker used to make about the same point, putting the emphasis on the 60 years leading up to 1914, which he considered the most innovative 60 years in human history: photography, telephones, radio, electricity, the combustion engine and therefore cars and trucks, airplanes, the modern textile dye…

Someone from the Roman Empire would have had a good understanding of the world in 1750. Ocean travel better, some advances in building large buildings, otherwise not that different.

In 1900? Quite a bit has changed.

The general shape of daily life today is not so different than say 1970. Email instead of letters, cell phones instead of searching for dimes for the pay phone.

But we fly in jets that average about 450 MPH, cars with a top road speed around 60 or 70 MPH, television but now with an Internet or cable feed, supermarkets are much the same, etc etc.

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#564
post #504

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm pretty sure XP let you hot plug displays? You could simply open windows media player and stream video 20 years ago. The resolution would have been the main impressive thing, along with how much money you spent on that high speed internet connection. But far from utterly unbelievable. I'm not sure anyone would have cared which program you used.

In theory, maybe. In practice? Something would have broken, or you'd have to fiddle with some settings, or you'd have to download the video (somehow) before you could play it in a standalone program – the experience would have been much less streamlined, at least. Also, which single cable would you have used to carry video and audio, and which could be plugged into a laptop and a TV?

> Something would have broken, or you'd have to fiddle with some settings

I don't remember any trouble with screens or moving windows around or doing streaming video around that time.

> Also, which single cable would you have used to carry video and audio, and which could be plugged into a laptop and a TV?

Oh, I didn't realize you were suggesting the audio moved to the TV. Well HDMI came out a couple years later and didn't really blow minds.

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#565

Because new technology is as Thiel often quips limited to the world of bits rather than the world of atoms. Paul Krugman once asked, if you go into an average house right now and you take out all the screens, could you tell that you're not in the 80s? Gordon in the Rise and Fall of American Growth gives a similar example, what if you went into a time capsule between say 1890 and 1950 compared to 1960 and 2010? In one…

> how many digital services, modern tech and so on would you be willing to trade for something mundane, say your dishwasher, a hot shower, the toilet, a car, soap, if you could only have one or the other? I think it really puts into perspective how much or rather little value those 'innovations' add.

This is a good question, but I think you'd be surprised by some of the answers. I'd give up indoor toilets before I gave up my smartphone.

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#566

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 30 years ago in order to navigate somewhere you had to ask someone for directions and write down notes. If you missed a turn, god help you. We fundamentally move through the world vastly differently thanks to digital maps. Many people (and in a few years, the majority) are doing so in cars that use electric motors instead of internal combustion engines. Honestly, it seems like you're just picking some incremental o…

A Tesla is a fucking space ship compared to the cars people had in the 50s...

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Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#567
post #385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This sounds like poor navigation skills to me. You should be able to find out roughly where on the map you are purely by dead reckoning. So maybe if we by "productivity" mean "can get away without acquiring useful skills" then sure, "productivity" has definitely gone up.

Why is that not an appropriate form of productivity? And I've never seen somebody who learned to navigate on a map effectively actually locate their position in moments.

I'm not talking about cold starts, to be clear. I'm talking about the situation where "one minute ago I was here, and I have moved at roughly this speed in roughly this direction for that minute. Where's the centre of the small circle I'm probably in now?"

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#568

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In case anyone is curious what "largely flat since 2000" looks like: https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/670/90/sites/default/fi... https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/16947.jpeg

Your first plot is of global, not US airline traffic. Global incomes have risen, most notably in China. I may have misread a chart or mis-remembered statistics. The Statista chart does show that the post-2000 trend in air travel is well below the 1990s trendline. Actual miles travelled would have been above 1 trillion had the former continued. The more notable chart of Gordon's does indeed show price per passenger mi…

US Department of Labour seems to maintain statistics on modes of travel. Departments of Transportation and Energy may as well.

I've yet to find a good presentation of long-term trends.

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#569
post #479
post #394

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not only gps, but just being able to find nearby hotels and check vacancy and prices. When I was a kid, we would pull in at multiple hotels and someone would have to go in and ask for prices and if they had vacancy. My mom would usually go and ask for the price because my dad felt like they gave her better prices. In fact, a few times they did - as he sent her in after he asked. So not only convenience and leveling t…

Actually, I recall being able to haggle prices at hotels before the online booking sites became prominent. Also, there were travel agents (a rare breed these days) who could assist with booking flights, hotels, and sightseeing. There seems to be advantages and disadvantages to each era. However, I largely consider technology advances to be rather unimpressive, especially services and apps built on the internet. Acces…

You can always come to the less technologically advanced country and haggle all you want. I'm in one of those countries right now, and believe me, it's a lot worse when you actually need to do that every time you try to use any service.

After moving there I've started to appreciate a decent, frictionless, fixed price service a lot more.

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#570
post #482
post #432

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The acceleration, ride comfort, features This is not true at all. Ride comfort and features is massively improved in todays cars compared to 1950. Or to 1980. That goes for both the driver and passenger.

Depends on what you want in a car and what you mean by ride comfort. Very few cars made today ride as smoothly as a 1970-80 land yachts made by Cadillac and Lincoln for example. Also, many newer cars are unrepairable without special equipment and some don’t even provide service manuals to owners. Good luck getting your Tesla fixed quickly while traveling in remote locations versus a traditional car. Good luck finding…

Except you'd become a write-off yourself after getting into a car accident in a Cadillac/Lincoln. Especially if you didn't buy the safety belt option :)
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