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Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

nytimes.com

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Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#261

Post by gcanyon »

marginalia_nu wrote: post #129
Barrin92 wrote: post #122

Because new technology is as Thiel often quips limited to the world of bits rather than the world of atoms. Paul Krugman once asked, if you go into an average house right now and you take out all the screens, could you tell that you're not in the 80s? Gordon in the Rise and Fall of American Growth gives a similar example, what if you went into a time capsule between say 1890 and 1950 compared to 1960 and 2010? In one…

There's a weird disconnect with computers. The software we use is 1000 times more complex than it was 20 years ago, leading to performance that really have not improved a lot, and a lot of functional stagnation. Many applications are slower to start today than they were 10 years ago, because back then they were binaries and today they are Electron apps. Your average web based word processor with cloud storage perform…

> performs about the same as MS Word did on a 486 with a floppy

Except (gdocs for comparison) I now can:

1. Effortlessly access the doc on multiple devices, wherever there is cell or WiFi. 2. See a visual history of every change I've ever made to the doc. 3. Collaborate with many other people in real time. 4. Easily incorporate images, tables, drawings, and other files. 5. Compare documents. 6. Use other character sets and emoji. 7. Add, have others add, and review comments.

I'm sure there's more. I don't remember everything about how primitive things were 30 years ago.

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#262

Post by lukeschlather »

tablespoon wrote: post #253
Quinner wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

30 years ago in order to navigate somewhere you had to ask someone for directions and write down notes. If you missed a turn, god help you. We fundamentally move through the world vastly differently thanks to digital maps. Many people (and in a few years, the majority) are doing so in cars that use electric motors instead of internal combustion engines. One way to tell whether you're in an 80s house would be to look…

> 30 years ago in order to navigate somewhere you had to ask someone for directions and write down notes. If you missed a turn, god help you. We fundamentally move through the world vastly differently thanks to digital maps. Many people (and in a few years, the majority) are doing so in cars that use electric motors instead of internal combustion engines. Honestly, it seems like you're just picking some incremental o…

Personally I try to turn GPS off as much as possible but I also frequently consult it even for routes that I know well. And come on, maps are excellent, there's no garbage there. Last weekend I was frustrated that Google was unaware of a road reroute but that is leaps and bounds ahead of the days of paper maps. Yeah, there's a lot of garbage on the Internet but it's also remarkably easy to find high-quality information.

The change over even 10 years ago is also really dramatic for how I use public transit, since I not only know where I am but where the vehicles I'm planning on getting into are so I can reroute that way. It's only in the past 5 years or so that the data has gotten reliable enough that I trust it to use in that way.

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#263

Post by robocat »

dmitriy_ko wrote: post #238
analog31 wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My house was built in the early 60s, has hardwood flooring throughout, copper plumbing, the wiring is all in hard conduit, the 2x4's are actually a bit thicker than today's, and of a higher grade. The original windows are still functioning, though not as efficient as modern ones. The appliances are modern because they've all been replaced. Today's house in the same region uses lower grade lumber, carpeted floors, Rom…

Modern houses have PEX plumbing. It has some advantages over copper, e.g. it won't burst if it freezes. But the main advantage -- it's less labor to install.

> But the main advantage -- it's less labor to install.

Another huge advantage is you can easily do plastic pipe plumbing yourself. You just need one clamping tool, that costs less than one hour of plumbing labour would cost. Plumbing with copper piping or steel pipes requires way more time, skill, and expensive tools.

PVC drain pipes are also simple to install correctly: a tape measure, a saw, and some PVC solvent cement is all you need for simple jobs.

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#264

Post by MiddleEndian »

rowanG077 wrote: post #224
Barrin92 wrote: post #122

Because new technology is as Thiel often quips limited to the world of bits rather than the world of atoms. Paul Krugman once asked, if you go into an average house right now and you take out all the screens, could you tell that you're not in the 80s? Gordon in the Rise and Fall of American Growth gives a similar example, what if you went into a time capsule between say 1890 and 1950 compared to 1960 and 2010? In one…

You could very easily tell by literally any of the other tech in the house. Roombas, Solar panels, space heaters, electric car. Or even by the the general utensils, encyclopedia, flooring, type of heaters. Besides computers have changed the world just as much in the last 40 years as we have moved from horse carriages to cars, if not more. Just because it didn't require retooling of cities doesn't mean it isn't a gian…

Also the lack of certain things would be an indicator. No home phone. No phone books. No physical maps. Less likely to have a dictionary or other books. Fewer newspapers and magazines.

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#265

Post by marginalia_nu »

gcanyon wrote: post #261
marginalia_nu wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a weird disconnect with computers. The software we use is 1000 times more complex than it was 20 years ago, leading to performance that really have not improved a lot, and a lot of functional stagnation. Many applications are slower to start today than they were 10 years ago, because back then they were binaries and today they are Electron apps. Your average web based word processor with cloud storage perform…

> performs about the same as MS Word did on a 486 with a floppy Except (gdocs for comparison) I now can: 1. Effortlessly access the doc on multiple devices, wherever there is cell or WiFi. 2. See a visual history of every change I've ever made to the doc. 3. Collaborate with many other people in real time. 4. Easily incorporate images, tables, drawings, and other files. 5. Compare documents. 6. Use other character se…

Right, but how many things are actually central to document processing?

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#266

Post by XorNot »

kareemsabri wrote: post #205
Retric wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point was vacuums etc have gotten a lot better over time. Electric motors are noticeably lighter, more powerful, and more energy efficient today. Yes vacuums in the 1980’s worked but they where significantly heavier, louder, and far more power hungry not to mention more expensive. It might not seem like much but I remember the exhaust from the family vacuum being noticeably warm. It’s even more noticeable with co…

I don't think that was the point. The OP said "we have [them]", not "they've gotten better". I agree, Dyson is quite a bit better than the vacuum my parents had (though central vac was pretty damn good). Dishwashers are quieter, though not that different. Microwaves seem about the same.

Dishwashers use a fraction of the water they used to. It is more water and power efficient to use a dishwasher then to wash dishes by hand. [1]

In all these responses what I'm noticing is people missing the vast gains in efficiency from our appliances over the last few decades: everything we have gives more, and uses less.

[1] https://www.aceee.org/files/proceedings/2008/data/papers/1_1...

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#267

Post by wruza »

rowanG077 wrote: post #239
amelius wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And the "async programming" that is advocated everywhere is still the same as Windows 3.1 cooperative multitasking, just with better branding.

Depends on what you mean by async programming. If you literally mean async and await as available in Haskell, Rust, C#, JS, Python etc. Then no that's definitely not the same thing as windows 3.1's cooperative multitasking.

Assuming that we know how promises and syscall-triggered context switches work, what’s the important difference?

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#268

Post by fieldcny »

lukeschlather wrote: post #262
tablespoon wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 30 years ago in order to navigate somewhere you had to ask someone for directions and write down notes. If you missed a turn, god help you. We fundamentally move through the world vastly differently thanks to digital maps. Many people (and in a few years, the majority) are doing so in cars that use electric motors instead of internal combustion engines. Honestly, it seems like you're just picking some incremental o…

Personally I try to turn GPS off as much as possible but I also frequently consult it even for routes that I know well. And come on, maps are excellent, there's no garbage there. Last weekend I was frustrated that Google was unaware of a road reroute but that is leaps and bounds ahead of the days of paper maps. Yeah, there's a lot of garbage on the Internet but it's also remarkably easy to find high-quality informati…

I agree that GPS and maps/directions are a magnificent improvement.

I remember what it was like to get lost, and be lost for hours, late at night nothing open, no one but unsavory characters out.

I remember how hard long trips could be even with maps or trip-tiks from AAA (which were awesome)

GPS enables all sort logistics, it allows transport companies to ensure trucks are driven safely, to know when and where goods in transit are there is an entire world of productivity improvement right there.

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#269

Post by malloryerik »

Quinner wrote: post #151
Barrin92 wrote: post #122

Because new technology is as Thiel often quips limited to the world of bits rather than the world of atoms. Paul Krugman once asked, if you go into an average house right now and you take out all the screens, could you tell that you're not in the 80s? Gordon in the Rise and Fall of American Growth gives a similar example, what if you went into a time capsule between say 1890 and 1950 compared to 1960 and 2010? In one…

30 years ago in order to navigate somewhere you had to ask someone for directions and write down notes. If you missed a turn, god help you. We fundamentally move through the world vastly differently thanks to digital maps. Many people (and in a few years, the majority) are doing so in cars that use electric motors instead of internal combustion engines. One way to tell whether you're in an 80s house would be to look…

> If you missed a turn, god help you.

People had lots and lots of paper maps. Every gas station had a rack of them. You'd probably have had a good spiral-bound one of your entire region in your car. Wrong turn? Just check the map and save God's help for later.

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#270

Post by robocat »

colechristensen wrote: post #191
lotsofpulp wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Luxury” is simply a marketing term and has no importance. The relevant question is how do the cheapest materials today compares to the cheapest materials in the 1980s?

I dunno, spending $4000/mo in Mountain View, you tend to have a few expectations. (in other words, it is more or less impossible to rent anything of actual quality) The garbage materials of today didn't exist nearly as much in the 80s so they'd have to have used at least cheap solid wood instead of sawdust foam.

> garbage materials of today didn't exist nearly as much in the 80s

Most of the 80s homes I have looked at have plenty of garbage materials: wasn’t the 80s when polystyrene decorative mouldings started being popular? Polystyrene houses and leaky building syndrome are definitely an 80s thing, but crappy claddings[2] have existed since the 20s.

There are plenty of garbage homes made with a variety of different garbage materials in the decades before that e.g. ticky-tacky[1]. Different types of particle board have been around for a while.

Watch out for embedded asbestos fibre in stucco ceilings or external claddings especially before the 80s - that shit can really tank resale value because it is hideously expensive to remove (vendor doesn’t legally have to declare it {in New Zealand}, but at some point in the future I expect that will be required).

Cheap and terrible homes and apartments are built in any decade or century. The Road to Wigan Pier written in 1937 talks about the crappy old brick homes in the UK. Survival bias and “the good old days” can make us think old homes are better.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Boxes

[2] https://soundhomesnz.co.nz/what-type-of-cladding-does-your-h...

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