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Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

nytimes.com

241–250 of 603 posts

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#241

Because new technology is as Thiel often quips limited to the world of bits rather than the world of atoms. Paul Krugman once asked, if you go into an average house right now and you take out all the screens, could you tell that you're not in the 80s? Gordon in the Rise and Fall of American Growth gives a similar example, what if you went into a time capsule between say 1890 and 1950 compared to 1960 and 2010? In one…

There's a weird disconnect with computers. The software we use is 1000 times more complex than it was 20 years ago, leading to performance that really have not improved a lot, and a lot of functional stagnation. Many applications are slower to start today than they were 10 years ago, because back then they were binaries and today they are Electron apps. Your average web based word processor with cloud storage perform…

But you also had completely different apps for every operating system, file formats were completely incompatable, you needed to shlep those files around using disks to get them between multiple computers, those disks were unreliable, and heaven help you if the power went out in the middle of saving, lest that file be lost for good.

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#242

Because new technology is as Thiel often quips limited to the world of bits rather than the world of atoms. Paul Krugman once asked, if you go into an average house right now and you take out all the screens, could you tell that you're not in the 80s? Gordon in the Rise and Fall of American Growth gives a similar example, what if you went into a time capsule between say 1890 and 1950 compared to 1960 and 2010? In one…

> could you tell that you're not in the 80s? Well yes, because we have solar panels and heat pumps and battery powered power tools and vacuum cleaners and dishwashers and microwave ovens and smart lights and ... You wouldn't expect walls and carpets to change.

Makita made the first power tools running on batteries in 1978...

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#243

Because new technology is as Thiel often quips limited to the world of bits rather than the world of atoms. Paul Krugman once asked, if you go into an average house right now and you take out all the screens, could you tell that you're not in the 80s? Gordon in the Rise and Fall of American Growth gives a similar example, what if you went into a time capsule between say 1890 and 1950 compared to 1960 and 2010? In one…

Does my instant pot have a screen?

Not quite, but we have AI in rice cookers:

> The Pressure Induction Heating Rice Cooker & Warmer uses pressurized cooking and AI (Artificial Intelligence) to cook perfect rice. Platinum infused nonstick inner cooking pan helps rice cook sweeter. Pressure cooking helps turn beta starch into alpha starch for softer and easier to digest rice. Now with convenient Jasmine, Congee and Steel Cut Oatmeal settings.

https://www.zojirushi.com/app/product/npnwc

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#245

Because new technology is as Thiel often quips limited to the world of bits rather than the world of atoms. Paul Krugman once asked, if you go into an average house right now and you take out all the screens, could you tell that you're not in the 80s? Gordon in the Rise and Fall of American Growth gives a similar example, what if you went into a time capsule between say 1890 and 1950 compared to 1960 and 2010? In one…

I agree, instead of critiqueing and truly reflecting on what went wrong, and what to do to fix it; technologists are obsessed with over-praising of how things have gotten better. It misses the point that "We could have done a lot better" if we weren't so stagnant. America was a powerhouse of innovation in 1950-1970 both in private and public sectors. The progress was impossibly exponential. First step is admission of…

Real progress requires largely-uninterrupted time, space and adequate resources, cannot be readily predicted and is inherently risky. By outsourcing higher thought to the private sector, progress without immediate commercial application has been grossly disincentivized and I would argue the prerequisite culture has been lost.

A 15-bit computer[0] brought us to the moon, whereas this time awash with 64 bit mobile supercomputers, infinite RAM, search engines and cloud computing has brought us high profile failures in corporate drone programs. In such an environment, cost is not the issue. In the private sector and public at large, perhaps we've forgotten how to work together. The military sector seems to have constant cost overruns and occasional big failures but at least gets the job done.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_Guidance_Computer

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#247
There's a paper (forgot the title or author, sorry) that gives the conclusion that it takes exponentially more resource to advance technologies forward in a linear fashion. Technological advances are not moving forward exponentially but rather it takes exponentially more resource to just keep progressing in linear scale. This applies to different disciplines across the board, in CS, in physics, chemistry, medical research, etc.

It might relate to the productivity debate. It might take exponentially more advances in technologies to improve productivity linearly.

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And the "async programming" that is advocated everywhere is still the same as Windows 3.1 cooperative multitasking, just with better branding.

Depends on what you mean by async programming. If you literally mean async and await as available in Haskell, Rust, C#, JS, Python etc. Then no that's definitely not the same thing as windows 3.1's cooperative multitasking.

The async and await is just syntactic sugar that makes you more addicted to it.

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#249
post #99

The right side of the bell curve can now program an application worth many dollars per month and zero marginal reproduction costs. The left side of the bell curve is incapable of extending these technologies but increasingly consumes them due to their low cost. This can explain the seemingly paradoxical phenomena of the rich becoming fabulously richer, wage growth stagnating on average, and productivity barely improv…

“The right side of the bell curve can now program an application worth many dollars per month and zero marginal reproduction costs.”

“The inventions of the last 50 years were of smart people for smart people.”

building the surveillance state for big brother isn’t intelligent. also, they get paid a salary.

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#250

Because new technology is as Thiel often quips limited to the world of bits rather than the world of atoms. Paul Krugman once asked, if you go into an average house right now and you take out all the screens, could you tell that you're not in the 80s? Gordon in the Rise and Fall of American Growth gives a similar example, what if you went into a time capsule between say 1890 and 1950 compared to 1960 and 2010? In one…

bogus! I was there, and let me tell you, I get so much more done each day, it's shocking:

- cellphones, the internet and GPS saves insane amounts of time coordinating RL events. I'm never gonna get back the 1000+ hours I spent with paper maps trying to find places, playing "phone tag" coordinating activities, etc. Kids these days, they just have no idea.

- remote work & learning = 2+ hours PER DAY. I used to pay $500 (in today-dollars) a month to sit on the Long Island Railroad and read books. Now I work when I'm ready to be productive. I listen-in on zoom calls, whisper questions to people, read docs, all "soaking up" information. Recently, I got tons of work done while on a grand jury - 21 cases in 8 days and no problem interleaving work, thanks to excellent WiFi and work-from-anywhere.

- e-commerce and youtube = no more repeated trips to the store for stupid shit. I've got a dozen major home improvement projects going at once, with ecomm orders every which way, from lumber to jigsaws, electrical to plumbing. Easy returns means I can experiment more. YouTube means fewer mistakes and far fewer disasters.

- globalization = variety = better tools for the job. No seriously, you have no idea how limited and shitty products used to be. In software, we had no source control let alone CI/CD - reproducibility was not a thing, let alone distributed computing. IRL, I remember trying to buy stuff at Sears and Service Merchandise and the only review system was the store clerk on commission. You can't imagine the BS we put up with, simply for a lack of variety.

(I could go on... you can't imagine healthcare back then... in the starkest definition of "productivity," cancer was often a death sentence even caught early, and now people routine survive stage 4 cancers... also everybody knew people who died young in car accidents, it was tragic but normalized, and then DUI laws and education, crumple zones and airbags all made this rare...)

Now it's true, we "waste" our newfound freedoms binge-watching Netflix, wasting time here on HN, going to the gym, and so on. Put another way, I dunno about you, but my daily/weekly "productivity limit" is not based on output, but on my brain maxxing out, from too many projects, too many names, too many details.

It's also true that many upgrades are "trivial" - vacuums with lights and on/off buttons on the handle; better quality audio and video; 1000s of streaming shows. Back in the day, we had maybe a dozen channels and the quality was often terrible, from mediocre writing and acting, to hilariously simple production values that even pre-dated the demands of 4K. Historical fiction wasn't popular because it sucked. Sci-fi and horror weren't much of a thing because the special effects sucked. And and and.

These don't make you productive, and they don't even make you happier unless you remember to appreciate them.

Which is why I'm taking the time to write this comment. I just had another amazing day that my older self simply couldn't imagine, let alone someone from mid-century or before computers.

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