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Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

nytimes.com

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Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#161

Post by ryukoposting »

adhesive_wombat wrote: post #147

Manafacturing productivity is though the roof. PCBs are incredibly cheap now, and lead times are in days. Micros that can do almost anything, bristling with peripherals and programmable in C or even just running Linux, rather than hand assembly or discrete circuits. Dedicated devices that cost cents handle tasks that used to take organisations months and months to design. All sorts of materials make things that used…

I was thinking something similar (if narrower). In my universe (embedded systems), we have entire BLE stacks-in-a-box shipped to us by manufacturers now. That would have been inconceivable 20 years ago. Now more than ever, peripherals can be interconnected using a little bit-twiddling, automating a lot of the system logic that would have been handled explicitly in the past.

To be fair, none of that matters if we aren't actually doing useful things with the fancy microcontrollers.

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#162

Post by KronisLV »

marginalia_nu wrote: post #129
Barrin92 wrote: post #122

Because new technology is as Thiel often quips limited to the world of bits rather than the world of atoms. Paul Krugman once asked, if you go into an average house right now and you take out all the screens, could you tell that you're not in the 80s? Gordon in the Rise and Fall of American Growth gives a similar example, what if you went into a time capsule between say 1890 and 1950 compared to 1960 and 2010? In one…

There's a weird disconnect with computers. The software we use is 1000 times more complex than it was 20 years ago, leading to performance that really have not improved a lot, and a lot of functional stagnation. Many applications are slower to start today than they were 10 years ago, because back then they were binaries and today they are Electron apps. Your average web based word processor with cloud storage perform…

> The software we use is 1000 times more complex than it was 20 years ago, leading to performance that really have not improved a lot, and a lot of functional stagnation. Many applications are slower to start today than they were 10 years ago, because back then they were binaries and today they are Electron apps.

Also known as Wirth's law: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirth%27s_law

Sometimes it worries me. If we had a boring set of usable and safe tools to use for development, that would also be pretty fast, i wouldn't have to update my hardware every 5 years or so. But JetBrains IDE's (just one example) basically demand that I do, if I want their other shiny features.

Perhaps something like Java instead of Python. Perhaps something like Go instead of Java. Perhaps something like Rust instead of Go.

Just boring (predictable), stable and dependable programming languages, supported on every platform with a set of native libraries. Perhaps a bit like what LCL did in regards to GUI in particular: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lazarus_Component_Library

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#163

Post by [deleted] »

Barrin92 wrote: post #122

Because new technology is as Thiel often quips limited to the world of bits rather than the world of atoms. Paul Krugman once asked, if you go into an average house right now and you take out all the screens, could you tell that you're not in the 80s? Gordon in the Rise and Fall of American Growth gives a similar example, what if you went into a time capsule between say 1890 and 1950 compared to 1960 and 2010? In one…

[deleted]

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#164

Post by Retric »

kareemsabri wrote: post #139
IshKebab wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> could you tell that you're not in the 80s? Well yes, because we have solar panels and heat pumps and battery powered power tools and vacuum cleaners and dishwashers and microwave ovens and smart lights and ... You wouldn't expect walls and carpets to change.

> vacuum cleaners mainstream since at least the 1950s > dishwashers 1970s > microwave ovens available but fairly expensive in the 80s, ubiquitous in the 90s

The point was vacuums etc have gotten a lot better over time.

Electric motors are noticeably lighter, more powerful, and more energy efficient today. Yes vacuums in the 1980’s worked but they where significantly heavier, louder, and far more power hungry not to mention more expensive. It might not seem like much but I remember the exhaust from the family vacuum being noticeably warm. It’s even more noticeable with cordless vacuums which got not just better motors but vastly better batteries as well.

Often it’s the parts you don’t notice that make a world of difference. The finger saver shutoff on a modern saw might not seem like much, but those things really make a difference in peoples lives.

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#165

Post by [deleted] »

Barrin92 wrote: post #122

Because new technology is as Thiel often quips limited to the world of bits rather than the world of atoms. Paul Krugman once asked, if you go into an average house right now and you take out all the screens, could you tell that you're not in the 80s? Gordon in the Rise and Fall of American Growth gives a similar example, what if you went into a time capsule between say 1890 and 1950 compared to 1960 and 2010? In one…

[deleted]

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#166

Post by diordiderot »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #154
Barrin92 wrote: post #122

Because new technology is as Thiel often quips limited to the world of bits rather than the world of atoms. Paul Krugman once asked, if you go into an average house right now and you take out all the screens, could you tell that you're not in the 80s? Gordon in the Rise and Fall of American Growth gives a similar example, what if you went into a time capsule between say 1890 and 1950 compared to 1960 and 2010? In one…

> if you go into an average house right now and you take out all the screens, could you tell that you're not in the 80s? Yes. Even the cheapest house built to code will be noticeably better than one from 1980s. The quality of materials, technology of materials, wiring, plumbing, flooring, insulation, etc will all be better. > The difference between a car right now and a car 30 years ago is that you can now play angry…

I read something along the lines of 'a stock 2020 Camero is faster than a 2000 Ferrari' with fewer cylinders

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#167

Post by tstrimple »

DeWilde wrote: post #36
uejfiweun wrote: post #2

I have a hard time believing this thesis that modern technology doesn't help productivity. Think about CRM software. Could you imagine having to go through hundreds of filing cabinets and massive systems just to get information about a customer? What about 100 SDRs doing this at the same time, every day? How about trying to meet with someone on the other side of the country? Or having to hire hundreds of assembly lin…

The gap between the richest and the poorest is probably the largest ever, but today people are also living far more comfortably than ever: electricity, heated water, food and water at a press of a button, generally good transportation to pretty much everywhere. What is lacking, for the less privileged, is mostly lack of access to affordable housing and a bad diet (arguably this is mostly due to the enticing nature of…

I think it's a little to easy to overlook the abject poverty which still exists in this country. More than two million Americans lack access to clean water or sanitation. I personally know millennials who didn't have hot water in their house growing up. They would heat water on the stove for baths, at least when their utilities were turned on. There exist towns where literal sewage is running out of people's houses in areas where kids play. Hookworm for example is still rampant in parts of the US. Half of our rivers and streams and one third of our lakes are too polluted to swim or fish in, much less drink from. 99% of households having a refrigerator doesn't mean these folk are living comfortably.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/05/hookworm-low...

https://time.com/longform/clean-water-access-united-states/

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#168

Post by dilyevsky »

Barrin92 wrote: post #122

Because new technology is as Thiel often quips limited to the world of bits rather than the world of atoms. Paul Krugman once asked, if you go into an average house right now and you take out all the screens, could you tell that you're not in the 80s? Gordon in the Rise and Fall of American Growth gives a similar example, what if you went into a time capsule between say 1890 and 1950 compared to 1960 and 2010? In one…

> Paul Krugman once asked, if you go into an average house right now and you take out all the screens, could you tell that you're not in the 80s?

It’s clear to me krugman never held a hammer in his life bc that is just laughable statement

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#169

Post by analog31 »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #154
Barrin92 wrote: post #122

Because new technology is as Thiel often quips limited to the world of bits rather than the world of atoms. Paul Krugman once asked, if you go into an average house right now and you take out all the screens, could you tell that you're not in the 80s? Gordon in the Rise and Fall of American Growth gives a similar example, what if you went into a time capsule between say 1890 and 1950 compared to 1960 and 2010? In one…

> if you go into an average house right now and you take out all the screens, could you tell that you're not in the 80s? Yes. Even the cheapest house built to code will be noticeably better than one from 1980s. The quality of materials, technology of materials, wiring, plumbing, flooring, insulation, etc will all be better. > The difference between a car right now and a car 30 years ago is that you can now play angry…

My house was built in the early 60s, has hardwood flooring throughout, copper plumbing, the wiring is all in hard conduit, the 2x4's are actually a bit thicker than today's, and of a higher grade. The original windows are still functioning, though not as efficient as modern ones. The appliances are modern because they've all been replaced.

Today's house in the same region uses lower grade lumber, carpeted floors, Romex, and plastic plumbing.

Agreed about the Corolla. I owned a second hand 80s Corolla, and it was the best car I had ever experienced up to that point, but a second hand Corolla would be so much better today.

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#170

Post by tunesmith »

Quinner wrote: post #151
Barrin92 wrote: post #122

Because new technology is as Thiel often quips limited to the world of bits rather than the world of atoms. Paul Krugman once asked, if you go into an average house right now and you take out all the screens, could you tell that you're not in the 80s? Gordon in the Rise and Fall of American Growth gives a similar example, what if you went into a time capsule between say 1890 and 1950 compared to 1960 and 2010? In one…

30 years ago in order to navigate somewhere you had to ask someone for directions and write down notes. If you missed a turn, god help you. We fundamentally move through the world vastly differently thanks to digital maps. Many people (and in a few years, the majority) are doing so in cars that use electric motors instead of internal combustion engines. One way to tell whether you're in an 80s house would be to look…

I think your last sentence is unnecessary. What purpose does it serve?
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