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Tell HN: Job interview canceled due to looming recession

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Re: Tell HN: Job interview canceled due to looming recession

#61

Post by itake »

mooreds wrote: post #35

> What companies or roles will be more resilient? Well, for startups, if they've just raised (in the last 6 months) and you know or can estimate their burn rate and they have 18-24 months in the bank (or are cash flow positive), that's a good choice. Also good if they have a clear business model, rather than still trying to figure it out. I think that any of the pandemic focused companies were darlings of the markets…

Can you elaborate what you mean by startups that have raised in the last 6 months being a good choice?

My understanding is those companies could be high risk for being overvalued and will have difficulty raising funds in 18-24 months. The RSUs maybe taxed at the current value, but actually be worthless after a down round.

My interpretation is companies that raised 18-24 months ago and are still hiring now would show stronger signals, because their last valuation missed the tech book of 2020 and they seem to think they can continue hiring despite the current economic situation.

Re: Tell HN: Job interview canceled due to looming recession

#62

Post by HeyLaughingBoy »

daveslash wrote: post #48
mooreds wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Usually it’s recent hires and people who’ve been there a long stretch who get cut first, of course with lots of exceptions. This was a bit confusing to me. Are you saying in your experience that it is both the most senior and most junior employees (in terms of company tenure) that get laid off?

I entered the job market during the 2008 recession. I definitely experienced the "hired... and..now you're laid off" ~ as the saying goes "when times get tough, last to hire = first to fire" . As for laying off senior folks -- I've seen this too; I've seen people who are senior by virtue of just having been there the longest (20+ years) and have had the most pay raises... but don't necessarily contribute as much valu…

> that you're contributing more value add than is reflected by your paycheck -- you won't be let go

That's a very optimistic take. What usually happens is that there's an obvious bottom line improvement to laying off a few very senior people, but the impact isn't so obvious, so from the business's perspective it looks like a win.

I remember the cognitive dissonance of being an employer's rep at a job fair in 2010 and telling everyone who came up to our booth that I could take resumes, but we weren't hiring! At least I got a free lunch out of it.

Businesses don't always do what makes sense from the outside.

Re: Tell HN: Job interview canceled due to looming recession

#63

Post by Workaccount2 »

mathverse wrote: post #37

Can anyone explain to me how come we are about to hit recession when there is an incredible demand (as in people have the money and want to spend them) for everything (furniture, appliances, anything really..) but there's no supply?

Non-asset holders (read: bottom ~70%) do not have money and cannot stomach inflation.

Unfortunately, the data shows that most Americans are not SWE's pulling $180k from the comfort of their newly renovated living room for the last two years.

Re: Tell HN: Job interview canceled due to looming recession

#64

Post by giaour »

mysql wrote: post #49
tynpeddler wrote: post #21

I've had meta and microsoft cancel on me. I also went all the way through the interview loop at one company, received very positive feedback but was told that they had decided to close the position without filling it. There's definitely a pullback and it started about 2 months ago. Update: As of now, about half of the companies I've interviewed with at one level or another, have abruptly halted their process due to e…

Not sure about other places but MSFT recruitment just reached out to me today.

Every team at MSFT does their own hiring, so experiences there won't be uniform.

Re: Tell HN: Job interview canceled due to looming recession

#65

Post by WWLink »

isbvhodnvemrwvn wrote: post #12

Keep in mind that it might be (or might not, impossible to predict) a preemptive decision due to uncertainty, not necessarily due to actual changes they see. A company I worked at when COVID started also had a hiring freeze, but had the best result in years during 2020-2021 due to the market situation. Ultimately all companies are linked to a market of some sort which in the end can see growth or shrinkage if a crisi…

This is what I really expect. Just like the oil companies that jacked prices up and then claimed record profits lol.

Ultimately I think this might be an around-the-block way to cut fat, get rid of remote workers, and a desperate attempt to try and take control of the job market again.

If the big companies claim the sky is falling and start laying people off and cutting costs everywhere, then everyone else is going to follow.

The evidence will be in earnings reports later on. If a company's executive management is crying wolf and then reporting record profits, well.........

Re: Tell HN: Job interview canceled due to looming recession

#66

Post by dougmsmith »

sl9dmk2 wrote: post #47
bnt wrote: post #2

Their honesty should be applauded. Imagine they hired you and then had to fire you in 6 months. Keep in touch with the PM if you liked them and see how they perform in the next 12 months.

Quoted post unavailable.

No post body was provided.

Re: Tell HN: Job interview canceled due to looming recession

#67

Post by hardtke »

SilverBirch wrote: post #40
mathverse wrote: post #37

Can anyone explain to me how come we are about to hit recession when there is an incredible demand (as in people have the money and want to spend them) for everything (furniture, appliances, anything really..) but there's no supply?

Caveat: not an expert. Well, demand is high and supply is constrained. This has caused a spike in inflation. It’s a good question whether interest rates should be used to counter this. In order to counter this interest rates are going up, this reduces the attractiveness of the stock market causing a crash- as you’ve seen in the main indices. But on top of that inflation is high in energy and Putins war is going to sp…

Economists like to say "the cure for high prices is high prices." High prices should reduce demand and also increase supply. I don't see how this necessarily leads to a recession (a contraction in the economy) which is usually caused by fewer people working. We have record low unemployment. A lot of people are just parroting political talking points at this point about the inevitability of a recession, there is no indication yet of one AFAIK.

Re: Tell HN: Job interview canceled due to looming recession

#68

Post by fundad »

yrgulation wrote: post #22
athrowaway3z wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I like your optimism but what crash? Things might get much worse. Or not. There are many things happening at once. One that I think people are underestimating is baby boomer money. They are retired/retiring. It doesn't feel comfortable with the same risk that was acceptable in the last decade. That will suck at an unprecedented amount of liquidity from the system.

I may be living under a rock but i second the question: “what crash”? I am not aware of anything of the sort.

US economic growth is leveling off after the recovery in 2021. The opposition party wants to use it to retake power and is calling it a disaster to undermine optimism in the economy. Business owners fear a drop in demand and scale back hiring.

Re: Tell HN: Job interview canceled due to looming recession

#69

Post by axg11 »

It's interesting to see the self-reinforcing aspect of this recession/downturn. Many companies have yet to see a material impact to their revenue or market conditions, but are tightening their belts in anticipation. I'm not saying that's a bad thing or the case here. The more a potential recession is discussed, the more fearful companies become, the more conservative they become in their actions and ultimately the recession will be worse due to that. Perhaps the contagion of fear is better in the long term as companies are forced to act more prudently.
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