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Tell HN: Job interview canceled due to looming recession

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Re: Tell HN: Job interview canceled due to looming recession

#31

Post by jstx1 »

rzazueta wrote: post #25

This will be at least the fourth such downturn I have seen in my career: - the 2000 Dotcom Bust - the 2008 recession - the 2020 pandemic recession - Now The short answer is that no one really knows what will happen. A lot of companies are reading the tea leaves - and regardless of what anyone tells you, that's really all it is - and trying to figure out how to make the best moves given rising prices, rising interest…

The 2020 pandemic crash hardly counts - it was a quick blip and everything quickly rebounded to new highs (hiring, salaries, stock market etc).

Re: Tell HN: Job interview canceled due to looming recession

#32

Post by Leherenn »

yrgulation wrote: post #22
athrowaway3z wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I like your optimism but what crash? Things might get much worse. Or not. There are many things happening at once. One that I think people are underestimating is baby boomer money. They are retired/retiring. It doesn't feel comfortable with the same risk that was acceptable in the last decade. That will suck at an unprecedented amount of liquidity from the system.

I may be living under a rock but i second the question: “what crash”? I am not aware of anything of the sort.

At least in the markets, the NASDAQ is down roughly 30% YTD.

Re: Tell HN: Job interview canceled due to looming recession

#34

Post by mooreds »

mc32 wrote: post #7
bnt wrote: post #2

Their honesty should be applauded. Imagine they hired you and then had to fire you in 6 months. Keep in touch with the PM if you liked them and see how they perform in the next 12 months.

I agree. In a previous recession I had an offer rescinded over a weekend. I’m glad they did because most likely as they had to reduce headcount during the recession Id have been on the chopping block --my then employer having been conservative in hiring didn't have to cut as much. also sometimes in times of expansion some hires are "luxury hires", nice to haves, but not must haves and can be the first to go. Usually…

> Usually it’s recent hires and people who’ve been there a long stretch who get cut first, of course with lots of exceptions.

This was a bit confusing to me.

Are you saying in your experience that it is both the most senior and most junior employees (in terms of company tenure) that get laid off?

Re: Tell HN: Job interview canceled due to looming recession

#35

Post by mooreds »

> What companies or roles will be more resilient?

Well, for startups, if they've just raised (in the last 6 months) and you know or can estimate their burn rate and they have 18-24 months in the bank (or are cash flow positive), that's a good choice. Also good if they have a clear business model, rather than still trying to figure it out.

I think that any of the pandemic focused companies were darlings of the markets for the past 2 years and they'll be a snap back for them (Zoom, Pelaton, etc).

But it's hard to counsel you on areas of growth/stability at this time. If you are currently employed and decently happy, this next 6 months would probably be a good time to stay still, since you're a known (and hopefully respected) quality at $CURJOB.

See this great tweet on the topic: https://twitter.com/techgirl1908/status/1524740200206848000 (there are also some companies in the replies who say they are still hiring).

Re: Tell HN: Job interview canceled due to looming recession

#36

Post by spicymaki »

rzazueta wrote: post #25

This will be at least the fourth such downturn I have seen in my career: - the 2000 Dotcom Bust - the 2008 recession - the 2020 pandemic recession - Now The short answer is that no one really knows what will happen. A lot of companies are reading the tea leaves - and regardless of what anyone tells you, that's really all it is - and trying to figure out how to make the best moves given rising prices, rising interest…

I would lump 2020 through 2022 into one big catastrophe.

Re: Tell HN: Job interview canceled due to looming recession

#38

Post by VGltZUNvbnN1 »

mooreds wrote: post #34
mc32 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. In a previous recession I had an offer rescinded over a weekend. I’m glad they did because most likely as they had to reduce headcount during the recession Id have been on the chopping block --my then employer having been conservative in hiring didn't have to cut as much. also sometimes in times of expansion some hires are "luxury hires", nice to haves, but not must haves and can be the first to go. Usually…

> Usually it’s recent hires and people who’ve been there a long stretch who get cut first, of course with lots of exceptions. This was a bit confusing to me. Are you saying in your experience that it is both the most senior and most junior employees (in terms of company tenure) that get laid off?

Some people just barely do their work but are kept on because they are good for the team/team spirit. I've seen a lot of those people getting axed in 2008.

Re: Tell HN: Job interview canceled due to looming recession

#39

Post by tmaly »

I had a full signed offer to join large semiconductor company designing chips back in 2001. I found out on slashdot before the call that they were giving people a choice to take a payout or take your chance looking for a job within the company. This was during the dotcom crash.

The best advice I can give you is to keep developing skills that are in demand. Keep building things. Keep networking. You will find something better even in tough times.

Re: Tell HN: Job interview canceled due to looming recession

#40

Post by SilverBirch »

mathverse wrote: post #37

Can anyone explain to me how come we are about to hit recession when there is an incredible demand (as in people have the money and want to spend them) for everything (furniture, appliances, anything really..) but there's no supply?

Caveat: not an expert.

Well, demand is high and supply is constrained. This has caused a spike in inflation. It’s a good question whether interest rates should be used to counter this. In order to counter this interest rates are going up, this reduces the attractiveness of the stock market causing a crash- as you’ve seen in the main indices. But on top of that inflation is high in energy and Putins war is going to spike food prices. High interest rates also encourage people to save instead of spend which will put a headwind on spending.

So we’re moving into a situation where consumers are going to be spending a lot of their income on mortgages, rent, fuel and food. Whilst the supply chain may ease supply, discretionary spending looks likely to tank.

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