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Tether Withdrawals Top $10B

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Re: Tether Withdrawals Top $10B

#91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They only had $4.2B in cash during their last attestation. The rest was unknown treasuries and commercial paper.

Who cares about their attestation? It is not a proper audit. They could just borrow money from Bitfinex, take a screenshot of them holding the money, saying "see, we have money" and then return to Bitfinex on the same day. Their attestation is as worthless as their word.

Totally true. That's just the closest thing to actual information we have.

Re: Tether Withdrawals Top $10B

#92
post #74

We're in the get out while you still can phase. At some point they'll suspend conversion and holders will be stuck with something virtually worthless. It's like watching a landslide in its early stages, as soon as enough people realise what's going on it's going to be too late.

It is specially relevant to get out as there is no upside or very minimal upside... Why ever hold tether... If real money is an option.

USDT is the fuel that powers a lot the crypto ecosystem. Good luck trying to move USD around between different places in the crypto ecosystem (especially outside office hours). While possible it's complicated, slow and has terrible uptime.

The biggest crypto markets in the world are quoted in tether.

Re: Tether Withdrawals Top $10B

#93

This is either a good thing in that "wow, they atleast have $10B to redeem instantly" Or its a bad thing in that "welp, there's all the insiders exiting the boat first"

It could be those, but nobody outside knows whether any Tether was actually redeemed though. They are alleged to have insider connections with a bunch of different parties so they could just have burned Tether that had been created from nothing and lent out to an insider.

This really dips into conspiracy levels: Tether has many customers who can redeem USDT for real dollars. Many companies do this and are very open/vocal about this. Our company has done this as recent as late last week.

Re: Tether Withdrawals Top $10B

#94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Note there no mention of redemptions They have mentioned paying out billions in redemptions on twitter.

From the horse's mouth: "Tether has over $70 billion dollars of collateral which it can redeem USD₮ against. No exchange’s order book has anything remotely resembling that amount of liquidity."[0] When you look up the attestation that they provide each quarter 24% of this collateral is commercial paper.[1] Companies could be redeeming USDT for their own commercial paper. If you trust these attestations they have a lo…

> If you trust these attestations they have a lot of treasury bills and have increased their cash holdings by a couple percent so fingers crossed for those holding USDT.

This is the big if. They only do attestations, they don't allow proper audits and fired their auditors once when they got too nosy. It might have changed since then and they hold more cash or "cash-equivalent securities" (another iffy point), they still have never been properly audited so everything boils down to a very big "trust me"... US$80b of value is under that trust premise.

I wouldn't trust these people but I'm just a lowly drone in the bigger scheme of things.

Re: Tether Withdrawals Top $10B

#95
My guess is these were exchange IOUs or "commercial paper" and no USD was involved in this burn.

I can't really see a scenario where they aren't fucked, and it's going to make Terra look like a blip whenever it plays out. Unsure whether it'll be regulation or a rush to redemption but it really can't be that far out.

Re: Tether Withdrawals Top $10B

#96

Am I correct that it’s not necessarily $10B in withdrawals, as it is that the total market cap (valuation * total coins) dropped by $10B? Seems like an important distinction?

It's tether. It did briefly detach from its peg at USD $1 but the "valuation" of a coin has been roughly constant. It's $10bn out of originally $83bn, and it's still trading at $0.998 or so. So yeah, people have taken a big chunk of money out. That's called a withdrawal. We do not know that it is a cash withdrawal.

It's still detached, and it's been the longest period it's been unpegged from US$1 since it started to have high volume. Look at any graph (coinmarketcap.com is an easy one), since early 2019 when volume picked up it was never more than 6-7 days below US$1. It's been for 14 days and counting this time.

Re: Tether Withdrawals Top $10B

#97
post #78

Am I correct that it’s not necessarily $10B in withdrawals, as it is that the total market cap (valuation * total coins) dropped by $10B? Seems like an important distinction?

well it's not due to price changes, 1 USDT = 1$, so yes there are less coins in circulation. Poster below says Tether can create and destroy coins at will. They can certainly create them, not sure they can destroy them if in others wallets (and doing so would be a huge adverse news event). If they have destroyed coins can only be their own (in their own wallets) but I suspect that would also be transparent. My feelin…

1 USDT has been less than $1 ($.998) for the last two weeks on coinmarketcap.

Re: Tether Withdrawals Top $10B

#98
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It could be those, but nobody outside knows whether any Tether was actually redeemed though. They are alleged to have insider connections with a bunch of different parties so they could just have burned Tether that had been created from nothing and lent out to an insider.

This really dips into conspiracy levels: Tether has many customers who can redeem USDT for real dollars. Many companies do this and are very open/vocal about this. Our company has done this as recent as late last week.

Something I’ve been wondering is how Tether, which has a very difficult history of banking, has been able to pay out billions of dollars in USD in a few days (regardless of having it — even if they had it, I assumed it would be very difficult).

Can you share how your USDT was redeemed — was it to USD from a US banking institution (a wire?) or some other mechanism?

Thank you!

Re: Tether Withdrawals Top $10B

#99

We're in the get out while you still can phase. At some point they'll suspend conversion and holders will be stuck with something virtually worthless. It's like watching a landslide in its early stages, as soon as enough people realise what's going on it's going to be too late.

And I assume you are substantially short these markets then given that you know this for a fact and it's trivially easy to become wealthy one you know this for a fact?

I don't even disagree that there are potentially major issues here but stating this as a fact is just silly.

Re: Tether Withdrawals Top $10B

#100
post #77

Quoted post unavailable.

How do you structure that trade such that it pays out when tether collapses?

I've never shorted or taken out crypto loans, but you could theoretically:

- Take out a loan of USDT, using a stablecoin you trust as collateral

- Immediately trade all USDT into your stablecoin

- If the USDT price crashes, buy it up to repay the loan.

e.g. Binance lets you borrow 800k USDT with 1.23m collateral. Over 180 days, interest paid would be 36k.

Say USDT crashes and you repay your loan at 10c/USDT - you would pay at most 84k to settle the loan. You then end up with 1.94m, a 58% return on investment.

It's probably not that simple however.

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