Earlier quoted context omitted.
Aside from the leverage issues other point out in RE, you have to consider the political risk. How safe do you feel that a piece of paper saying that plot of land is yours will hold up when there's a raging mob threatening politicians to do something about homelessness/housing prices/AirBnB/Asset managers holding all the properties? The political risk in the West is at Emerging Markets levels. We've seen G7 nations d…
Seriously? You think things are going to get so bad the government seizes real estate en masse? That's not going to fly in the U.S. for one second.
How This Ends
371–380 of 698 posts
Re: How This Ends
#372Earlier quoted context omitted.
1. Zero Percent interest rates doesn't necessarily cause a bubble. It's the excess liquidity in the market that causes the bubble (too many financial assets chasing real assets).
Zero percent interest rates cause a bubble because valuations have to increase to the point where their forward-looking returns are a risk premium above bonds. When rates are zero for a long time, that means valuations go very very high. When rates come back up, valuations drop. Speculation can add further overshoot in both directions.
And yet people keep saying that nobody can time the market…
Re: How This Ends
#373I'm going to explain what has happened so far. What happens next entirely depends on how inflation continues and the feds reaction. 1. We had zero percent interest rates. This causes the value of assets with cash flows out into the future (think speculative tech, Tesla) to accelerate. 2. We had massive herding in megacap tech. These valuations are high in part because for a decade you would not have beat the index wi…
You’re on to an important point, but your statement is inaccurate. Firstly, it’s a fall in the rate of interest that is equivalent to a rise in the present value of a future cash flow. And vice versa. Notice this has nothing to do with “high” or “low” interest rates (whatever that means, exactly), but a change in the rate of interest. Secondly, this is not related to speculative stocks. All companies with an expected future income are affected by this, ie. almost all companies in existence.
Re: How This Ends
#374Earlier quoted context omitted.
Do you really though? If you are a long term investor, just picking a couple of core asset classes and then rebalancing regularly (rebalancing is key because it is an automatic way of selling thing when prices are higher and buying when they are lower), and never paying attention to the news, it's a winning strategy.
When you buy a home -- the largest single purchase one makes in the middle class -- you lock in the purchase price, but not the interest rate. Housing prices still haven't recovered in Japan to their 1990 highs. So if you don't pay attention to the macro environment, you could be costing yourself a great deal. Fortunately, other asset purchases like mutual funds in retirement accounts are DCA'ed in by the paycheck, a…
Re: How This Ends
#375Earlier quoted context omitted.
Nearly all of Alphabet and Meta’s profits are not from customers paying them to use their product, but advertisers who are trying to convince FB/GOOG customers to use their products. If those companies start disappearing, or cutting back on ad budgets, FB/GOOG don’t have a business model anymore.
Unless the recession is large enough to end the concept of commerce, advertising is not going anywhere. People will continue to buy things, it’s just that what those things are may shift.
Re: How This Ends
#376Earlier quoted context omitted.
RE is at massive peak levels already though that buyers cannot shell out those prices, esp as mortgage prices go up.
Worst part is the utterly absurd shortage means RE is never going to meaningfully dip for any period of time without serious structural reforms. The focus on interest rates as the main RE driver is almost completely cope and I wish I could believe it. Low-rate mortgages certainly aren't helping, but they're "not helping" in the same way that hucking an armload of kindling into an already-raging house fire is "not hel…
That could bring down rents and improve quality of life, and improve the suburbs as well. If you drive by a poorly-maintained house in the suburbs, that's probably someone who would live in medium density if it were available.
Re: How This Ends
#377> In the early 80s, the G7 economies tightened the money supply, raising interest rates dramatically, in an effort to bring inflation under control. This article points out a similarity between the early 80s and now. So I think it's appropriate to point out a major difference as well. Consider this chart[1] which shows both the short term interest rate (Federal Funds rate) and long term interest rate (10-year Treasur…
Surely speculation about the rise in interest rates has been taken into account by the market, though? If I expected stocks to decrease _drastically_ in the future as the fed increases rates, I would just sell right now, maybe even hold a short position. I feel that real interest rates do effect the market, but the expected future interest rates must also be a part of the "where do I put my money right now" formula.
Re: How This Ends
#378Earlier quoted context omitted.
> For 10+ years, we trained ourselves to function in a totally dysfunctional environment and learned all kinds of lessons which only make sense in the context of that dysfunction. For me, cryptocurrencies and Web 3.0 are the culmination and perfect distillation of this whole era. Interested to see how they weather this storm. I heard a commercial the other day which stated along the lines "have you ever wished you co…
Do not forget the influencers. I know 16yr olds with zero coding skills earning 100k+ annually. All they do is peddle web3 APIs on twitter. We live in a bizarre world.
And it all comes back to the fact that has been true since 2003 that Google earns 90% of its revenue on ads, and despite decades of trying at this point they still can't figure out how to move past that.
I mean, I think they've improved a bit, I've seen the number 70%, but still; a company as innovative as Google should be making money from innovations, not selling ads. Where's the disconnect?
I read this the other day and it's really stuck with me: https://berthub.eu/articles/posts/how-tech-loses-out/
It's about how we live in a world where companies are incentivized by short term quarterly growth expectations to outsource literally everything, including its core competency. What is left of a company like this? It's a legal structure and holder of IP, all of which is completely imaginary, yet every company aspires to be as such. Why? Because it's profitable, which is of course a made up concept.
Yet what if every company aspires to do evolve this way? What happens to an entire country if the corporations therein are just empty shells that hold IP? What happens if everything important you do is done "somewhere else"?.
So if every company is either just holding intellectual property (imaginary), moving around money (imaginary), producing advertising (imaginary), holding other companies (imaginary concepts), redirecting eyeballs, aggregating data (but never doing anything with it), and all the legal machinations therein... then what actual work is anyone doing?! All of that is just imaginary made-up trifling nonsense.
I once read that RedBull is really just an advertising firm. The whole company. They don't do a damn thing but make ads. Everything that goes into the actual drink itself is "done elsewhere".
Even the actual work that gets done, like building homes, is meaningless. Yes people do actual work to create the home and the materials, but to what end? To house a human being? No! Of course not! All that work was done to create an investment vehicle that will remain empty, but whose sole purpose is to inflate a number on a balance sheet (imaginary). All of the trees that were felled and processed into lumber, the iron that was extracted from the ground and turned into nails, the tools, the shipping of all the materials around the world, the equipment delivered to the job site, the innumerable man hours of all the humans involved in directing this supply chain to bring this house into existence... all of that work just to inflate an imaginary number that will be traded on an imaginary market.
And so we see the consequence is the emergence of proto-trillionaires who use their ownership of assets (imaginary) to borrow money (imaginary) to buy companies (imaginary) that have a real impact on public discourse. If you think I'm talking about Musk here, I had Bezos in mind, but the point is that if you're a billionaire, you buy a media company to influence public discourse. It's part of your evolution. And you might say the assets are real but of course their values are not! Covid times revealed a complete disconnect between stock price and company valuation, revenue, or any other real metrics and proved once and for all that the stock market as a system is completely imaginary as well. It's measuring nothing of worth whatsoever.
But that's not the worst of it. Circling back to Google, and let's throw Facebook into the mix as well, is that they have such an outsized impact on the industry that they and the rest of FAANG suck up so much talent that it creates a vortex. And what do they do with that talent but put them to work on maximizing metrics like "engagement" so that they can drive eyeballs to advertisements, and collect data for resell. Again, completely imaginary work. So then everyone wants to do this kind of thing. And even if you don't, you need to compete with everyone who does, because they're offering ridiculous salaries of $200k+, which of course are pegged to ridiculous stock prices that are completely disconnected from anything tangible Google produces. So Google and Facebook and all the rest of them are paying their employees imaginary wages pegged to imaginary valuations so they can do imaginary work.
And it impacts absolutely everything! Universities can't hire professors because FAANG is sucking up all the CS PhDs. Research is funded by FAANG; conferences are funded by FAANG; grad students are therefore doing research aligned with FAANG interests; professors are writing grant proposals on those same lines and getting governments to fund them as well; undergrads dream of working for FAANG; professors are therefor asked to spend time teaching students to pass FAANG entrance exams... all for what? For what?! To drive eyeballs to ads and collect data. It's maddening.
So anyway... seems like this should hold up in the long run yeah? A society of people devoted to doing imaginary work sounds durable and will certainly hold up well under a crisis like a global pandemic, or worse.
Re: How This Ends
#379Earlier quoted context omitted.
The “chip shortage” was fake. The actual issue was inflation since the start.
>The “chip shortage” was fake. The actual issue was inflation since the start. Whew. Good new for me then! I guess I’m not 99 weeks out on a required part anymore.
Re: How This Ends
#380Earlier quoted context omitted.
> there is a risk free alternative to stocks Really? 2.5% bonds in a 7% inflation environment is an attractive bargain? This part didn’t compute: > Bonds will be wrecked […] because it's actually a really good deal to buy bonds when they yield north of 10% (if we get there).
bonds aren't currently yielding north of 10%. If they are currently at 2.5% (using your number, not to pick on you, but it is what I have at hand), then move to a 10% yield, the people who bought at 2.5% get a haircut.