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Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

austinvernon.site

531–540 of 672 posts

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#531

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1 event does not make a rule. French nuclear reactors were turned off for maintenance, yes, but over the past 30 years, it is clearly Germany depending on French power

Germany is a net electricity exporter: https://www.bmwk.de/Redaktion/EN/Infografiken/stromaustausch... Unplanned shutdowns are a increasing occurrence in France because of aging reactors and overheating/freezing rivers

>overheating rivers

Is this really what German press is reporting? What a gross lie. The "overheating" is neither due to the reactor (simply it getting hot naturally) nor actively threatening to the reactor: they are just stopped to avoid making the situation slightly worse. Temperature difference at the output of a nuclear plant is barely a degree.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#533

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trade is not bad. Saying you don't have a use for nuclear and then using it anyways while badmouthing it is bad.

Noone says you don't have to use nuclear. People say that building nuclear against climate change is an inferior intervention to fix climate change.

Actually Germans say that a lot and try to enforce it through the EU. They never found support for a complete ban but they're thwarting progress as much as they can.

And then you have the Austrians who try to cancel our nuclear power plants directly through activism, etc.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#534

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Who is 'we' that should come up with the plan? Government? Most westerners don't like government planning - your own post considers government involvement as a downside. I think an even broader we was implied, that of human civilization as a whole.

Okay, is it possible to answer my question - what aspect of life does Human Civilisation as a whole have a plan for? Because if there is no area of life that we can indetify a plan for, then the whole criticism doesn't make any sence.

Right now, collectively we are optimizing for return on capital on a sliding scale, those who have the most capital get the highest returns (or if not a higher return, then lower risk for the same return).

Over longer time frames we see the pattern failing periodically when inequality gets too severe resulting in societal breakdown in the form of wars or revolutions that end up redistributing assets through various means, including less direct ones like increased labor costs, no matter who "wins".

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#535

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's absolutely false, check out what has happened in Georgia and South Carolina and you will not be able to find any government interference or regulation slowing things down. It's just rank incompetence, bad management, and three-party contracts where each party is preparing for failure and a gigantic lawsuit in the end. Meanwhile, the latest excuse for the recent US failure in building was that they commenced bu…

> I've been asking "which regulations" for years, nobody has ever, literally ever pointed me to which. Well it looks like you have been asking in the wrong places: https://whatisnuclear.com/economics.html#public-concern-grow...

Yet again, I don't see any recommendations to change particular regulations. I do see some regulations that changed, increasing costs in the 1970s, but that I'm not sure anybody wants to change:

-Triaxial accelerometers and spectrum recorders were added to much equipment, piping, and containment.

-Reg Guide 1.117 required protection from 360 mph tornado winds, in some cases increasing building wall thickness from 18 inches to 24.

-Drain systems for firefighting waterflow had to both prevent fire from spreading and also sample water for radiation.

-Swing diesels at multiunit plants were prohibited by RG 1.81.

-Liquid radwaste had to be solidified before shipping with cement systems costing $20/kW.

-Anti-sabotage measures attempted to avoid any one person in the maintenance crew from working on a set of redundant equipment

Are you suggesting that these should be changed and that these will reduce costs significantly?

Because it's not these regulations that caused massive overruns in Georgia and South Carolina, so I don't know why that will help. There are far far deeper issues in the industry, which is deeply troubled and incompetent.

Later on the venerable 2018 MIT report is cited, which is a far far far better root cause analysis of nuclear failure than "regulations." It doesn't recommend changes in regulations, but it does suggest more speedy approval of design changes during construction, to which I say, great. Make nuclear construction agile.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#536

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "Actually, Germany did not have a long term increase in coal/gas due to the nuclear shut down but a decrease" Arguably this is semantics. But that's because the semantics of your claim is unhelpfully ambiguous. In absolute terms coal and gas make up approximately the same share of Germany's capacity as it did in 2010. In relative terms, because the total output has increased, it's share has fallen. But I say it is…

> In absolute terms coal and gas make up approximately the same share of Germany's capacity as it did in 2010. You're being very disingenuous here talking about capacity. What matters is how much fossil fuels actually are getting burned: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Germany_electricity_produ... Electricity production from fossil fuels went down from 360.3 TWh in 2010 to 328.5 TWh in 2021, which is a reduction o…

I agree that use is more important than installed capacity, but I don't think whether the fossil fuel share of electricity generation today is the same as in 2010 or 10% lower makes any difference to my point. Saying that 'coal/gas' fell when coal fell, and gas rose, is unhelpful. And renewables did not substitute for nuclear while gas did not, because both were used to get generation back to meet 100% of Germany's needs. Basic arithmetic tells us that if you need to reach a certain proportion of renewables in your energy mix, and you take away 5% of your capacity which is renewable, you have made it harder and not easier to reach your goal. And the less renewables, the more fossil fuel generation. Hence the rise of natural gas, and the drawn out coal phase-out.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#537

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The other aspect of the Ukraine war used for advocating for nuclear, which the nuclear proponents like to omit is that 25% of European uranium comes from Russia, so Europe's dependence on Russia is even stronger for Uranium than for gas. It's simply dishonest to use the current situation as an argument for nuclear. If anything it shows that we should have invested into renewables much more strongly, but nuclear propo…

Can't Uranium be easily sourced from somewhere else or is Russia the only viable supplier?

All you need to do is Google for "wiki uranium deposits". It takes less time than your reply.

Hint: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium_mining

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#538

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Even if the nuclear industry were entirely unregulated, it still couldn't generate profit. I recommend doing some simple arithmetic here. This is simply false: As the article points out, reactors used to be under $2000/kw (this is with some regulation, just not onerous amounts). The UK electricity wholesale price is currently at £100/MWh, so at current prices your new plant in the deregulated world (which will take…

Regulations aren't some random worthless bullshit imposed by bureaucrats. They are the consequence of nuclear accidents. Dreaming of a world without regulations in the nuclear sector is just as stupid as a world without regulations in the airline industry. It just won't happen and pretending that there some kind of environmentalist plot behind the regulations won't make these regulations less necessary. There is no w…

> They are the consequence of nuclear accidents.

These regulations are only cost effective if you have a value of human life at a billion dollars!

Looks at the actual accident rate and how bad they were in the 70s when nuclear power was reasonably priced. It is very much not worth increasing the price of nuclear by 5x, can just keep the regulations as they were and invest that money in healthcare to save 1000x as many people.

> It takes a very long time to recover the money (decades

In the overegulated world where nuclear power is 5x more expensive than it once was, yes. We aren't talking about that world though.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#539

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These points are either inaccurate or irrelevant We can not build nuclear at $10/GW, that's a fantasy. The use of the land is quite different too. When a wind farm "uses" 100x-1000x the land (and I am not accepting those numbers, just quoting you), that land is still available for other uses. The fraction of "used" land is so neglible as to not matter at all. So to discuss it in the same terms as a reactor doesn't ma…

my point is that the advantages of nuclear both outweigh its cost by a mile, and address most of the issues we're dealing with in transitioning to renewables and conservation. i'd throw hydro, desal, and terraforming projects like nawapa in that category too. even with mixed use i'd still say renewables have a footprint problem, but the bigger problem i see is that the output is unstable and too low relative to input…

Another thing about the land assessment is that nuclear requires extremely specific land: either access to a massive body of water, or a huge resource of wastewater (e.g. Arizona's reactor)

This severely limits the amount of nuclear we can use in the biosphere, as every TWh of useful energy results in roughly a TWh of heating that needs to be dumped somewhere without negatively impacting the environment.

Meanwhile, solar and wind do not have that scaling problem, and there is way more spare land available to generate more energy that we can currently imagine what to do with.

As for intermittency, we will simply design the future electrical grid exactly the same we design it now: we build our minimum capacity to the the maximum usage. We haven't done that yet with renewables because we are still building. Anti-renewables nuclear advocates never seem to realize that about our current grid, that we have huge huge huge capacity that is almost never used. It will be the same in the future, with renewables, to an even greater degree. The difference is that renewables don't have fuel, so unlike all those peaker gas plants, the cost of using that additional energy capacity is near zero, as long as there is transmission capacity.

A grid powered by renewable energy is one where we will have incredibly energy abundance, huge amounts of curtailed energy that are not used because the energy is not in the right time or place. The amount of excess energy will be determined by the relative cost of generation capacity versus arbitrage capacity for place (transmission capacity) or time (storage).

A renewables powered grid is a huge step up on the energy ladder, and will enable far far cheaper and more abundant energy than a nuclear grid ever could.

Which isn't to say I'm against nuclear; if the industry ever gains some basic competence and can keep their promises, and the promises are competitive or complementary to storage plus renewables, let's build more. But it is the responsibility of the industry to improve, and prove to others that it has finally improved. And as long as people are running around blaming nuclear's decades of failure on everything except the true root cause, poor construction, nuclear will never have a chance to improve.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#540
post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is practically irrelevant in the sense that you can virtually always find an acceptable place to put a wind turbine in in a several hundred kilometer radius. While there are places with very densely populated territories, there are no places with territories that are very densely populated over hundreds of thousands of square kilometers.

"an acceptable place" Look at the situation in Germany. "An" acceptable place, yes, but given how many of the Windräder you need, finding enough such places is a different task, because many less populated places are wildlife refuges. And yes, German wind power is expanding into old growth forests and mountains, which provokes embittered fights with classical nature protectionists who do not want to allow such damage…

There are no 'last remnants of preserved landscape' in Germany. 97% of all forests in Germany are Wirtschaftswald i.e. commercially used forests.
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