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Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

austinvernon.site

511–520 of 672 posts

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#511

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trade is not bad?

Trade is not bad. Saying you don't have a use for nuclear and then using it anyways while badmouthing it is bad.

Noone says you don't have to use nuclear. People say that building nuclear against climate change is an inferior intervention to fix climate change.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#512

The Lazard report cited is two years old. There’s an updated version here: https://www.lazard.com/media/451881/lazards-levelized-cost-o... Better visualization of the key chart here: https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2022/~/media/Im...

But does this mean nuclear is uneconomical?

Nuclear energy costs about $170/MWh, coal about $100 and solar/wind about $50/MWh.

For comparison, the average price of electricity in the US in 2021 was $140/MWh.

It's almost guaranteed that in 2022 it will be much higher, because the jump in price of both natural gas and coal.

[1] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=51438

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#513

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany could have cancelled their nuclear shutdown process. But saving face is more important than Ukrainian lives.

> saving face is more important [for Germany] than Ukrainian lives. I understand that the propaganda works, but lets not fall in the error of blaming Germany for this war. Germany are victims in this situation, not aggressors. This narrative just divert the focus from the only responsible. Paying somebody for a product will not force him/her to invest the money in crimes. Russia could have spent this money in buying…

German government was perfectly aware how Russia used money they receive for energy resources. Chechen wars, Georgia 2008, annexation of Crimea and war in Donbas 2014. Moreover, sanctions against Russia imposed in 2014 were very weak and many German companies found ways to continue to export to Russia military equipment. For example, transmissions on many Russian tanks got many German components. And Russia also has used the money to corrupt politicians in Germany.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#514
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Small modular reactors don’t actually solve any significant issues for the nuclear industry. Construction costs are dwarfed by operating costs and the idea that N small reactors with N times as many parts will somehow require less maintenance is wishful thinking. They very well could be slightly cheaper over the first 15 years, but nuclear reactors are designed for ~50 year lifespans and are really expensive to decom…

Most SMR are sealed designs that can't be opened before their 20 year lifetime is over.

Then you need three of them or to refurbish the first one twice to reach the equivalent of a 50 year lifespan. At which point construction costs again smaller than operating costs.

It’s the same thing with steam turbines, they last a long time but not 50 years. So initially they are part of construction costs but eventually they are part of maintenance costs.

Essentially 50 years is used because cooling towers, buildings, plumbing, etc can last at least that long so decommissioning early is a waste. But eventually repair or replacement gets too expensive.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#515

Earlier quoted context omitted.

France doesn't accept EU law supremacy either despite being a founding member.

EU law is always supreme. If a law in France violates EU law, then any foreign EU national in France with standing can use French courts to have the law annulled. > The revolutionary case of NV Algemene Transport-Expedite Onderneming Van Gend en Loos v Nederlandse Administratie der Belastingen (9), addressed this matter, but also the issue of supremacy. In regard to Article 12 EEC (now Article 30 TFEU), The ECJ held…

Their Supreme Court has been over it multiple times and the answer is always their law is supreme.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#516
The fundamental problem as i see it: Nuclear is profitable/possible only at large scale, it cannot 'scale down', unlike e.g. wind/wave turbines you can't buy a mini-reactor because the industry is very regulated(and for a very obvious reasons). the closest scaled-down nuclear has got is RITEG , which was built without these regulations(and would horrify Americans as much recreational nukes). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radioisotope_thermoelectric_ge...

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#517

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you would benefit from reading TFA. It looks at the actual operating costs of current designs and the dropping price of renewables and points out that the fundamental economics of the nuclear industry are not great right now. It also points out that most of the high-priced daytime usage is about to be scooped up by renewables. This may or may not be fatal to the nuclear industry, but it points to the need for…

Sorry. Largest power density is still in the atom. Can't work your magic around this. The only reasonable and sane strategy is to R&D around nuclear. Whoever gets it right will rule, the others will be ruled. Not single bubble kept its integrity; renewables will burst as well.

Read the article. The advantages of the high power density are negated by the inefficiencies of the heat cycle, construction costs etc.

Yes, it makes sense to focus some R&D on nuclear. However after seven decades, it would seem that an alternative to turbines is not so straightforward. The alternatives mentioned in the article are at least a decade (and probably much more) away from commercial use. Even then the other overheads would remain.

As with many engineering problems, an apparently decisive advantage can be overwhelmed by secondary effects.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#518

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The whole argument about base supply (not load), only made sense in the old times when there were expensive variable supplies which could quickly follow load, and cheap base supplies which would run constantly at the same output (typically coal, nuclear...). The situation completely changed now the highly variable loads are cheaper now than the former base supplies. So you would always use your money to overbuild on…

It seems unreasonable to think that wind and solar could be overbuilt to an extent they could serve as a sole supply. Everyone has had the experience of walking around on a windless night. You can have many such nights in a row.

There has been a lot of research that showed that this is possible with relatively little over provisioning for a place like the US or Europe. The thing that is still missing are highly integrated electricity nets, but that is improving raapidely mainly for economic reasons (with a very competitive market and integrated nets one can make quite a bit of money by selling from places we're generation is currently cheap). If we use hydro also for storage (pumping up water when electricity is cheap), you need even less overprovisioning.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#519

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems strange to me that they'd want that rather than finding out up-front before they spent a much greater amount of money actually building something which might be rejected.

They do want that. The guys didn't want blid acceptance, just doing this in stages so that they can focus on the things that might need improvement.

Yes, exactly. I'm trying to figure out how I could have communicated better, since so many people here are so wildly misinterpreting what I wrote.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#520

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The other aspect of the Ukraine war used for advocating for nuclear, which the nuclear proponents like to omit is that 25% of European uranium comes from Russia, so Europe's dependence on Russia is even stronger for Uranium than for gas. It's simply dishonest to use the current situation as an argument for nuclear. If anything it shows that we should have invested into renewables much more strongly, but nuclear propo…

> so Europe's dependence on Russia is even stronger for Uranium than for gas I’d argue that it’s not about % coming from Russia that reflects dependence, it’s how easy you could switch to another supplier. How difficult would it be to find a different provider for that Uranium?

However nobody talks about blocking Russian Uranium imports, while oil and gas is all over the news. Admittedly the values we are talking about are much lower, but if it's easy to switch suppliers it should be a nobrainer, no?
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