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A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

economist.com

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Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#81

Post by tyrfing »

kyrra wrote: post #61
charliea0 wrote: post #43

I'm kinda skeptical of the severity of this issue. Apparently Ukraine was expected to export 33.8 million tonnes of corn this year. The USDA says that the US produced 13,691,561,000 bushels of corn in 2019. If I converted the units correctly, that is 383 million tons. Just a 10% increase in production in the US alone would replace Ukraine's harvest. Now there certainly could be an issue of price and logistics costs i…

Logistics I think is large part of it. Another part is going to be the fertilizer shortage. > Russia also exported 11% of the world's urea, and 48% of the ammonium nitrate. Russia and Ukraine together export 28% of fertilizers made from nitrogen and phosphorous, as well as potassium, according to Morgan Stanley. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/06/a-fertilizer-shortage-worsen...

Belarus potash exports, 18% of global supply, were also cut off in January due to US sanctions. This will force their dependence on Russia, with a Belarusian port on Russian soil, and for now they are struggling to export any of it.

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-17/belarus-p...

Here's some perspective on current fertilizer prices: https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/fertilizer-prices-expec...

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#82

Post by aaron695 »

charliea0 wrote: post #43

I'm kinda skeptical of the severity of this issue. Apparently Ukraine was expected to export 33.8 million tonnes of corn this year. The USDA says that the US produced 13,691,561,000 bushels of corn in 2019. If I converted the units correctly, that is 383 million tons. Just a 10% increase in production in the US alone would replace Ukraine's harvest. Now there certainly could be an issue of price and logistics costs i…

No post body was provided.

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#84

Post by viraptor »

One thing I haven't noticed in the article is anything about wasted food. The common knowledge says: we've got enough food for everyone, it's just in the wrong place, so it's cheaper to throw away. If we really have global shortage, the balance of that will change and not throwing things out (or not overstocking in the first place) will become more common. I'd be interested in learning how much that affects the real shortage of food that we experience in the shop.

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#86

Post by sateesh »

MichaelMoser123 wrote: post #68

Interesting if food shortages will result in other conflicts, one of the causes for the Arab Spring were high food prices [1] Is it possible that all this will result in a cascade of conflicts? Here they are saying that food prices were going to rise due to COVID - and that was before the outbreak of the war [2] Things seem to be going from bad to worse... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Spring#Causes [2] http…

Possibly yes, look what's happening in Srilanka.

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#88

Post by drewm1980 »

ceejayoz wrote: post #77
ImPostingOnHN wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

that is not what the person you're replying to said.

Sure it is. Humans don't need four stomachs to handle grain. You'd need it to eat grass , but the article doesn't say anything about humans eating grass. > With only grass-fed livestock, individual Americans would still get more than the recommended daily allowance (RDA) of meat and dairy protein, according to Pimentel's report, "Livestock Production: Energy Inputs and the Environment."

Is there really a "Recommended daily allowance of meat and dairy protein"? Sounds like propaganda from the meat and dairy industry like the food pyramid. I once met someone who studied to be a professional nutritionist, but left the field entirely because it is corrupted by special interests. IIRC to get certified she had to tow the party line that nutritionists should promote animal products as part of a healthy diet, and she decided to change fields instead.

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#89

Post by drewm1980 »

goodcanadian wrote: post #45
photon12 wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is highly dependent on the area. My family has a background in wheat farming, I grew up in an area with a lot of family wheat farms, and if you are in an area with good soil and the weather is good you can make a lot of money on a wheat crop even in so-so international wheat price conditions. They rotate in other crops for soil balance but YMMV in terms of wheat profits.

Fair enough, different crops do better in different areas. In your case, for reasons of crop rotation (which you mentioned), they are still unlikely to be able to substantially increase wheat production. Farming is one of the most "free market" industries out there. In most cases, everything is already highly optimised.

This is not at all true for the USA. Farm subsidies there are famously massive:

https://liberalarts.tamu.edu/blog/2021/11/03/farm-subsidies-...

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