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Netflix’s bad habits have caught up with it

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Re: Netflix’s bad habits have caught up with it

#11

Post by dragontamer »

I was expecting to see some discussion over Netflix's depreciation models, which is (apparently) over 5 years, 20% per year.

While Disney (and other producers) do something like 90% depreciation over the first year, the famous "Hollywood accounting" that gets a lot of criticism.

But "Hollywood accounting" might be closer to the truth than Netflix's model. 20% of the movie "Bright" (released in 2017, the Will Smith + Orc buddy-cop movie) is still being "paid for" on Netflix's books this year.

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Since Netflix's growth has slowed a bit, the effects of depreciation are now going to start hurting it. But it seems like everything discussed in this article is about the fundamental viewership issue, which might be worse.

Re: Netflix’s bad habits have caught up with it

#12

Post by Mountain_Skies »

thrill wrote: post #2

The quoted "competing exec" is 100% wrong when he says Netflix is making a mistake ending shows after three seasons. Shows need to be pitched and run for three seasons max, period. Everyone has a life other than the show that's "hot" for the moment, from cast to writers to the source of money - the viewers. Shows that get dragged out inevitably suck. And yeah, go to weekly releases.

That would be fine if the storylines were wrapped up at the end of season three but shows not only fail to do this, they often end on a cliffhanger and then the series gets cancelled. I don't know about other people, but I wait until a show has been on for years before bothering with checking them out. There are a few that I knew were continued as graphic novels, which I thought was a decent compromise but if I know there's an unresolved cliff hanger and a bunch of half finished storylines, I don't bother starting the show.

A three year series is fine but treat it like that in the third season before too many people's behaviors change and it starts to become difficult to get their attention to new series because they fear it ending suddenly without resolution.

Re: Netflix’s bad habits have caught up with it

#13

Post by chimeracoder »

bumper_crop wrote: post #5
thrill wrote: post #2

The quoted "competing exec" is 100% wrong when he says Netflix is making a mistake ending shows after three seasons. Shows need to be pitched and run for three seasons max, period. Everyone has a life other than the show that's "hot" for the moment, from cast to writers to the source of money - the viewers. Shows that get dragged out inevitably suck. And yeah, go to weekly releases.

Other studios do "episode at a time" pilots, Netflix does "season at a time" pilots. Pretty much everyone misunderstands; and thinks a whole season implies more seasons.

This is not a good comparison, because except in very few cases, the audience of a pilot is not the general public. In fact, the general public will never have the chance to see the pilot unless it's picked up, and in that case they'll still have to wait until the entire season is filmed.

By contrast, Netflix uses the viewership ratings from the first season to determine whether to renew for a second season.

Re: Netflix’s bad habits have caught up with it

#14

Post by carlmr »

bumper_crop wrote: post #5
thrill wrote: post #2

The quoted "competing exec" is 100% wrong when he says Netflix is making a mistake ending shows after three seasons. Shows need to be pitched and run for three seasons max, period. Everyone has a life other than the show that's "hot" for the moment, from cast to writers to the source of money - the viewers. Shows that get dragged out inevitably suck. And yeah, go to weekly releases.

Other studios do "episode at a time" pilots, Netflix does "season at a time" pilots. Pretty much everyone misunderstands; and thinks a whole season implies more seasons.

But that's a problem. Watching a whole season makes you more invested in the show, so you're pissed off when it gets cancelled.

I also agree with OP that encouraging binge watching is not good. Netflix pumped out more content than any cable TV package I've ever had in the past, but by allowing binge-watching people binge and then get bored and say Netflix has no content.

If they spread out these shows it would be healthier for the viewers and would create a perception of more content.

Re: Netflix’s bad habits have caught up with it

#15

Post by Beached »

thrill wrote: post #2

The quoted "competing exec" is 100% wrong when he says Netflix is making a mistake ending shows after three seasons. Shows need to be pitched and run for three seasons max, period. Everyone has a life other than the show that's "hot" for the moment, from cast to writers to the source of money - the viewers. Shows that get dragged out inevitably suck. And yeah, go to weekly releases.

seasons are iffy measurement. episodes or hours is better. one season of star trek used to be 20+ episodes. no adays lots of shows are only 8, 10, 12 episodes.

tell the story you want to tell, with a satisfying ending. book and run the show for all of it.

no open ended shows that will run until it lives.lo h enough to suck. no shows canceled before their story is complete

Re: Netflix’s bad habits have caught up with it

#16

Post by jmyeet »

So the problem with media conglomerates (including big studios) is they want predictable returns. More specifically, they want a formula. Let me introduce you to Save the Cat [1]. This book has become so influential that you can read this book and then watch pretty much any movie and you'll be able to tick off everything in the movie to this structure.

It's why studios love sequels and franchises. They have a built-in audience ie predictable returns.

The biggest innovation we've had in this industry is the advent of highly serialized TV shows, made possibly in large part due to (at first) DVRs and then streaming. 30 years ago it just wasn't possible or practical to do somethin glike this when people had to tune in at a set time. The audience drop off would've been too severe.

For me this has been the true Golden Age of TV. But movies? It's all superhero films now and dull, dull, dull for the most part.

So the lesson Netflix is learning here is you can't just scale up a content business by throwing money at it. Studios would love if it this were true. Netflix has thrown many billions at this problem and not spent it wisely. You can't just write a check for $10 billion and become HBO.

Movies in particularly just don't make economic sense without theater releases. We've seen this durin gthe pandemic with movies that have skipped theaters out of necessity. It just doesn't work.

I agree Netflix needed to create original content given the inevitable "me too" streaming platforms from all the studios would otherwise rob Netflix of their catalog. But they may have just saddled themselves with so much debt that they're forced into ever-increasing sub prices because of decreasing subscriber numbers, which just accelerates the need for more price hikes and so on.

Ironically this is exactly what is killing cable TV.

[1]:https://www.amazon.com/Save-Last-Book-Screenwriting-Youll/dp...

Re: Netflix’s bad habits have caught up with it

#17

Post by chimeracoder »

carlmr wrote: post #14
bumper_crop wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Other studios do "episode at a time" pilots, Netflix does "season at a time" pilots. Pretty much everyone misunderstands; and thinks a whole season implies more seasons.

But that's a problem. Watching a whole season makes you more invested in the show, so you're pissed off when it gets cancelled. I also agree with OP that encouraging binge watching is not good. Netflix pumped out more content than any cable TV package I've ever had in the past, but by allowing binge-watching people binge and then get bored and say Netflix has no content. If they spread out these shows it would be hea…

> by allowing binge-watching people binge and then get bored and say Netflix has no content.

People don't say that Netflix has "no content" because they binge watch. People say that because Netflix does genuinely have dramatically less content than it did 8-10 years ago, because of the proliferation of competing streaming services.

If Netflix still had access to all the content it has hosted over the years, people wouldn't be making those complaints.

Re: Netflix’s bad habits have caught up with it

#18

Post by aaaaaaaaaaab »

bumper_crop wrote: post #8

It doesn't help that Netflix stands on principle and blocks all accounts in Russia, one of their major sources of subscriber growth. America, while being the most lucrative market, was already pretty saturated. Cutting off the countries with huge growth makes it extremely difficult to keep growing paying customers. But, principle comes first at Netflix, to the chagrin of their stock holders and employees.

>But, principle comes first at Netflix, to the chagrin of their stock holders and employees.

You're saying that as if that was a bad thing.

Re: Netflix’s bad habits have caught up with it

#19

Post by mortenjorck »

> Problem is — and again, this is not some massively deep observation — wanting more hits and actually making them are two very different things. Netflix until now seems to have believed the best way to produce them is to throw all the money it can find at Hollywood and wait for the successes to start rolling in.

This is basically the VC formula applied to entertainment, and just like how sometimes you get a Dropbox, sometimes you get a Stranger Things. And sometimes you don't.

Of course the key in both is having people with a developed enough market savvy and eye for talent to spot the future Dropboxes and Stranger Things. In VC, it requires a deep understanding of market forces, founders, teams, and tech, and in entertainment, it requires an understanding of both popular tastes and critical tastes as well as the intricacies of production.

Smart people can make bad bets and anyone can get lucky, but the part that's so much harder than it looks is to improve that batting average. Everyone has an opinion on what Netflix should do – I certainly have my own thoughts on things that ought to work (sign Ian Hubert to make a Dynamo Dream series! Adapt Alfred Bester's The Stars My Destination with The Rock as Gully Foyle!), but ultimately, it's just my guesses about the cultural marketplace. What Netflix needs is people with greenlight power who have a better feel for that marketplace than anyone else.

Re: Netflix’s bad habits have caught up with it

#20

Post by petilon »

The reason for Netflix lost subscribers in 2022 is the same as the reason Netflix experienced a growth spurt in 2020: work from home. When people work from home, on average they gain an extra hour or more per day, because they don't have to commute. (Not to mention, the boss can't walk up behind you and catch you enjoying a movie!) Now that work from home is over, they no longer need the Netflix subscription.
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