"According to a 2004 study, the average life expectancy of a non-instrument-rated pilot who flies into clouds or instrument conditions is 178 seconds." This statistic is the aviation equivalent of the "Bill Gates is going to give you $5" email forward. The study was in 1954, not 2004, and the pilots that were tested had zero instrument time (at least three hours are required to get a license now). They were put into…
Why do pilots still die from not knowing which end is up?
51–60 of 81 posts
Re: Why do pilots still die from not knowing which end is up?
#52Re: Why do pilots still die from not knowing which end is up?
#53> According to a 2004 study, the average life expectancy of a non-instrument-rated pilot who flies into clouds or instrument conditions is 178 seconds. That is a chilling statistic. As a VFR pilot, I often wonder what would happen inside a cloud to make me react and rip my plane apart in under 3 minutes.
Re: Why do pilots still die from not knowing which end is up?
#54Earlier quoted context omitted.
What the pilot will do to keep the passenger and plane safe can't be foretold by software written in static situations on terra firma. Sensors can lie, equipment can break. Your software may have no better idea of the true situation than the pilot. In the end it is a judgment call and if you limit the ability of those judgment calls to a bunch of software then you are saying that those in a different time and place h…
I think a more robust model of N completely different systems (both mechanical and electrical) to compute the same variable could be found so that the probability that it is computing a value outside of x% of the actual real value is lower than the probability that the human could make a mistake. Even if a speed indicator model in the event of pitot tube loss had a 25% margin of error, autopilot could have done the r…
There's a lot I don't understand about AF447, like, why couldn't a simple GPS receiver have saved them? GPS does a relatively poor job at reporting altitude, and is obviously useless at reporting airspeed, but it's certainly capable of telling you that you've dropped 10,000 feet over the past minute or two. I can understand how pilots could become disoriented, such that they don't know "which end is up," but I can't fathom why they shouldn't even know whether they are climbing or descending, which apparently was part of the AF447 scenario.
Re: Why do pilots still die from not knowing which end is up?
#55"According to a 2004 study, the average life expectancy of a non-instrument-rated pilot who flies into clouds or instrument conditions is 178 seconds." This statistic is the aviation equivalent of the "Bill Gates is going to give you $5" email forward. The study was in 1954, not 2004, and the pilots that were tested had zero instrument time (at least three hours are required to get a license now). They were put into…
http://www.humanfactors.uiuc.edu/Reports&PapersPDFs/Jour...
While you are right that it is from 50 years earlier than stated, it seems like a solid study. No, it's not actually "life expectancy", but I was impressed on how well designed it was. It makes for sobering reading, but the conclusion is actually positive: with only six hours of direct experience training, they could teach people how to make a safe 180 degree turn with a high percentage of success.
They explain the choice of the Bonanza, saying it was the most complex plane that a non-professional pilot could be expected to fly. The emphasis of the study was that simple training could save lives, and thus they wanted a high bar. "In sort, the assumption was made that if the subjects, none of whom had soloed a Bonanza, could master the technique in this airplane, they could master it in any single-engine airplane under 3,000 pounds gross weight."
And it's not quite true that the pilots had zero instrument time at the time of test. The first lesson included a very small amount of time to familiarize themselves with the instruments, and were given a second try if they lost control within only a few seconds. How much of a difference this is from the current 3 hours, and how far short of the recommended 6, seems worthy of discussion and likely a more modern study.
Re: Why do pilots still die from not knowing which end is up?
#56http://blogs.wsj.com/japanrealtime/2011/09/29/wrong-button-s...
Re: Why do pilots still die from not knowing which end is up?
#57I've had a similar experience while driving on a highway at night in foggy conditions. All of a sudden my car started slowing down and was rapidly losing power. I checked and it wasn't fuel, so I figured the engine was dying somehow. It wasn't until I tried gearing down that I realized I had been on a steep hill and fifth gear wasn't powerful enough. But even afterward, I couldn't sense that I was on an incline.
I have a simple trick for that: I know the consumption of my car on a level road in 5th gear at 90 km/h, so when I'm in doubt about whether or not I'm going up, down or level I look at the fuel consumption indicator. If it is higher than 6.6L/100km then I'm going up, less is down. If you don't have a fuel consumption indicator then that will not work but lots of cars have them these days and I think using them as a l…
Re: Why do pilots still die from not knowing which end is up?
#58Earlier quoted context omitted.
I agree it will take a long time to develop automated systems that can be trusted. It took 26 years for tech to develop from the first ILS assisted passenger landing to the first fully automated ILS landing. If you were to take this specific speed sensor issue, I'm more concerned there aren't different types of systems being used to try to cross-validate the numbers. The pitot-static system has its own backup on the…
To measure airspeed I guess something has to have air flowing through it or past it, and that something would be susceptible to icing. That said, current pitot have very good ice protection, and AF447 was an extreme example with a known problematic type that Air France were in the process of exchanging. Perhaps GPS ground speed data with previous wind estimates could at least help with establishing that "something mu…
Re: Why do pilots still die from not knowing which end is up?
#59Would not a helium balloon tethered to the floor/dash solve this problem for basically no cost?
Re: Why do pilots still die from not knowing which end is up?
#60Given the analysis of what happened in the recent Air France crash, I can't imagine why the industry does not write better software to help combat this. It seems as if the programmers writing the software are more concerned about writing valid code to fit the designed system ("the pilot signaled us to climb at exactly 40 degrees, so do it") rather than writing code that models the real world situations accurately. I…
In a stall you want to recover your speed asap , you dive and apply full throttle till you are able to level off with normal speed. Windshear usually happens when you encounter heavy wind changes on approach or take off, usually caused by heavy thunderstorms. Your speed will increase and then sudenly decrease to stall levels. It can very easily throw you to the ground.
As you are very low, the stablished procedure is to apply full throttle ( as in a stall) but PULL your controlls full up ( the software limits the nose up position to around 25 deg nose up in airbus models). You flight at the minimum speed ( airbus airplanes will not allow you to fly below that speed at least if you are at low altitude, a plane using both engines at go around power will climb). The point is that as they entered the thunderstom ( that previously was avoided by preceding airliners) and had that pitot icing, they reacted with a windshear procedure when it was unnecessary ( there is a procedure to flight without reliable speed indications just trusting your artificial horizont and thrust position for a given speed, they should have applied it in a perfect world[it is very easy to say what is the solution afterwards of course]).
At those altitudes the engines have no power left to perfor a windshear, so the speed started falling till they entered a deep stall. That stall was recoverable( this is a supposition) for lets say 2 minutes, but they still were aplying full up controlls thinking :why is this procedure that I have practiced thousand times in the simulator not working?( not understanding they were in a common stall)
It seems that the other flight officer may have known what was happening but failed to take the controls.
All this is my supposition based on the preliminary documents pblished and my experience with A320 aircrafts wich have pretty similar flight controls logic ( I am an airline pilot with 12 years experience flying boeing, douglas and airbus). Something completely diferent could be the final cause.
Windshear is a primary maneuver to practice and master due to the extreme danger that it represents for any kind of plane ( maybe not for fighters). Stall is seen as a improbable danger due to the airplane software protections. Both are practised but the windshear is more enfaticed at least in europe, also the stall is seen as a basic flying skill, something not practical to practice in an expensive simulator with limited training time for all that complicated failures.
To reply your question, you can not induce a roll to an airbus airplane ( not past 45 deg with normal conditions) unless you have lost some flight computers. You could for example with MD 80 or 737 as there are no computer protections. I don't know about 777 or other fly by wire boeings, but I guess they got some kind of protection.
Sorry for all the typos and spelling! I am writting on a van on my way to the airport.