One page print version - http://www.printthis.clickability.com/pt/cpt?expire=&tit...
Readability version: http://www.readability.com/articles/pcjy8rt3
Why do pilots still die from not knowing which end is up?
41–50 of 81 posts
Re: Why do pilots still die from not knowing which end is up?
#42Earlier quoted context omitted.
What the pilot will do to keep the passenger and plane safe can't be foretold by software written in static situations on terra firma. Sensors can lie, equipment can break. Your software may have no better idea of the true situation than the pilot. In the end it is a judgment call and if you limit the ability of those judgment calls to a bunch of software then you are saying that those in a different time and place h…
I think a more robust model of N completely different systems (both mechanical and electrical) to compute the same variable could be found so that the probability that it is computing a value outside of x% of the actual real value is lower than the probability that the human could make a mistake. Even if a speed indicator model in the event of pitot tube loss had a 25% margin of error, autopilot could have done the r…
Aircraft are a lot more deadly than roads. An air collision is pretty much fatal, whereas automobiles hit things all the time, often with no real damage to the occupants.
If your software is making the decisions, then the pilot can't make an educated response to unusual decisions. Big commercial aircraft are already largely run by software, but the pilot is there for unusual situations because there's often a lot of conflicting issues.
Re: Why do pilots still die from not knowing which end is up?
#43Given the analysis of what happened in the recent Air France crash, I can't imagine why the industry does not write better software to help combat this. It seems as if the programmers writing the software are more concerned about writing valid code to fit the designed system ("the pilot signaled us to climb at exactly 40 degrees, so do it") rather than writing code that models the real world situations accurately. I…
Pilots are very reluctant to hand over control to any kind of computer. It goes completely agains their self image. This is more true in certain company than other. A very similar phenomenon is how the USAF crashes more drones than the Army since they use pilots that insist on flying them in manual, vs the Army operators that do not consider themselves pilot. http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/04/29/young_usaf_predato…
I think it's easy to say that without taking into account all the experience that pilots may bring to the table when an incident occurs.
Pilots (and airlines) seem more than happy to turn flying over to the computers, in fact FAA and Airbus are concerned that modern pilots lack hand-flying skills due to over-automation. The AF447 crew did not have training in high altitude hand-flying, for instance.
Until you have a situationally aware computer that consistently beats humans in accident scenarios, we still have to trust humans to do the job, for better or worse.
Re: Why do pilots still die from not knowing which end is up?
#44Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think a more robust model of N completely different systems (both mechanical and electrical) to compute the same variable could be found so that the probability that it is computing a value outside of x% of the actual real value is lower than the probability that the human could make a mistake. Even if a speed indicator model in the event of pitot tube loss had a 25% margin of error, autopilot could have done the r…
I'm not downvoting you, but I think this is a kind of problem that seems solvable on the surface, but is very, very difficult to get right. You will always have situations where all speed indicators fail in a similar way leading the software to believe that the speed is correct. With all the erring on the side of caution that aircraft makes have used, we've had a couple of cases where the software "decided" something…
I agree it will take a long time to develop automated systems that can be trusted. It took 26 years for tech to develop from the first ILS assisted passenger landing to the first fully automated ILS landing.
If you were to take this specific speed sensor issue, I'm more concerned there aren't different types of systems being used to try to cross-validate the numbers. The pitot-static system has its own backup on the plane, but if there is an inherent weakness of that particular system (e.g. ice), there is no other way to measure speed that is not susceptible to icing. Surely that particular problem is within our reach, no?
Re: Why do pilots still die from not knowing which end is up?
#45> According to a 2004 study, the average life expectancy of a non-instrument-rated pilot who flies into clouds or instrument conditions is 178 seconds. That is a chilling statistic. As a VFR pilot, I often wonder what would happen inside a cloud to make me react and rip my plane apart in under 3 minutes.
Here is the fatal scenario: http://www.aerosafe.net/page6.html As a VFR pilot, you've received basic instrument training. Remember that training, trust your instruments, and you'll make it though.
Ah, it's from a simulator, where you don't get the benefit of your own body responses - no inner ear cues, no tactile feedback, no proprioception feedback.
People driving cars in simulators also do worse than in the real thing - a simulated car doesn't have all the ways a car tells you that you're driving close to the envelope.
Re: Why do pilots still die from not knowing which end is up?
#46> According to a 2004 study, the average life expectancy of a non-instrument-rated pilot who flies into clouds or instrument conditions is 178 seconds. That is a chilling statistic. As a VFR pilot, I often wonder what would happen inside a cloud to make me react and rip my plane apart in under 3 minutes.
Perhaps it is eaten by a grue?
Re: Why do pilots still die from not knowing which end is up?
#47Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm not downvoting you, but I think this is a kind of problem that seems solvable on the surface, but is very, very difficult to get right. You will always have situations where all speed indicators fail in a similar way leading the software to believe that the speed is correct. With all the erring on the side of caution that aircraft makes have used, we've had a couple of cases where the software "decided" something…
I agree it will take a long time to develop automated systems that can be trusted. It took 26 years for tech to develop from the first ILS assisted passenger landing to the first fully automated ILS landing. If you were to take this specific speed sensor issue, I'm more concerned there aren't different types of systems being used to try to cross-validate the numbers. The pitot-static system has its own backup on the…
To measure airspeed I guess something has to have air flowing through it or past it, and that something would be susceptible to icing. That said, current pitot have very good ice protection, and AF447 was an extreme example with a known problematic type that Air France were in the process of exchanging.
Perhaps GPS ground speed data with previous wind estimates could at least help with establishing that "something must be wrong with the airspeeds".
Re: Why do pilots still die from not knowing which end is up?
#48Earlier quoted context omitted.
I agree it will take a long time to develop automated systems that can be trusted. It took 26 years for tech to develop from the first ILS assisted passenger landing to the first fully automated ILS landing. If you were to take this specific speed sensor issue, I'm more concerned there aren't different types of systems being used to try to cross-validate the numbers. The pitot-static system has its own backup on the…
To measure airspeed I guess something has to have air flowing through it or past it, and that something would be susceptible to icing. That said, current pitot have very good ice protection, and AF447 was an extreme example with a known problematic type that Air France were in the process of exchanging. Perhaps GPS ground speed data with previous wind estimates could at least help with establishing that "something mu…
That is what this captain suggests:
http://travel.usatoday.com/experts/cox/story/2011/05/Ask-the...
Something scary from a Boeing pilot in the comments:
Loss of all airspeed indications is not something we train
for. It's always assumed in transport category aircraft
that redundancies built in will always give us at least
attitude, heading, and airspeed.Re: Why do pilots still die from not knowing which end is up?
#49> According to a 2004 study, the average life expectancy of a non-instrument-rated pilot who flies into clouds or instrument conditions is 178 seconds. That is a chilling statistic. As a VFR pilot, I often wonder what would happen inside a cloud to make me react and rip my plane apart in under 3 minutes.
It's an average, you might do better. Dramatized: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fXzYZjpoz_E
That was very good. I couldn't deduce what was going on until the last moment, which is (I assume) exactly the experience of pilots in this situation.
Re: Why do pilots still die from not knowing which end is up?
#50Earlier quoted context omitted.
Here is the fatal scenario: http://www.aerosafe.net/page6.html As a VFR pilot, you've received basic instrument training. Remember that training, trust your instruments, and you'll make it though.
Ah, it's from a simulator, where you don't get the benefit of your own body responses - no inner ear cues, no tactile feedback, no proprioception feedback. People driving cars in simulators also do worse than in the real thing - a simulated car doesn't have all the ways a car tells you that you're driving close to the envelope.
Not exactly. "Simulated Instrument Flight Conditions" usually means that your instructor has you put on a view limiting device [1] so that you can only see your instruments and not outside the aircraft.
One of the reasons it's done this way is to teach you to ignore inter ear cues and trust your instruments. Your inter ear senses acceleration, not absolute motion. Couple that with the centrifugal force during a turn changing your perception of which way "down" is, and your body responses become one of the main reasons you get into trouble.
It's similar to banked turns on car racetracks. When you're in a banked turn, "Down" for you is no longer towards the center of the earth, it's at an angle, perpendicular to the speedway. You also loose the sensation of turning once you're in that banked turn long enough (specifically once the fluid in your ear settles down and stops moving). If you were driving with a blindfold, you wouldn't be able to feel how steep your turn was.
[1]: http://sportys.com/pilotshop/category/864 "View Limiting Devices"