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The Great Crypto Grift May Be Unwinding

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Re: The Great Crypto Grift May Be Unwinding

#51

Post by mechanical_bear »

jraines wrote: post #27
formerkrogemp wrote: post #4

Quoted post unavailable.

there aren’t any that have been here a while and bother to chime in any more because every comment section on a crypto related story here is essentially exactly the same and has been for about 6 years, maybe more. If this is the obit that sticks, the HN crypto commentariat can line up for their certificates of honor from the Being Right After All Foundation. Unfortunately, these will be distributed as NFTs

I mostly don’t bother commenting on crypto news. The same ignorant hot takes get trotted out and no one (on either side) is really interested in a discussion of the merits of the other side’s position. It’s one of those topics that is a bit perplexing to see how the HN community responds to it.

Re: The Great Crypto Grift May Be Unwinding

#52

Post by Nav_Panel »

adam_arthur wrote: post #8
formerkrogemp wrote: post #4

Quoted post unavailable.

It doesn't and never has. 0 intrinsic value. Great to see all these idiot fueled bubbles popping

Same with greenbacks tho

EDIT: let me elaborate before you downvote: the value of a US dollar is not "intrinsic", it's the result of the strength of the US government and military, i.e. due to social factors that cause it to be accepted as a medium for exchange.

Crypto is no different: any crypto asset that has an exchange value (i.e. for which there's a liquid market) is backed by social proof of some kind, although likely on not nearly as large a scale or with as much force as the US military.

I highly doubt crypto is going to replace the dollar, because then it's internet communities vs the US government, and the US government has a lot more material power than internet communities, but there's no good reason why a cryptocurrency can't have some value as a legible unit of social proof, especially if the social relations involved have some material stakes (hence the DAO).

The idea that "money = intrinsic value" is a naive view of the world; Marx didn't believe that (he saw value as based on labor added), nor did Hayek, etc.

Re: The Great Crypto Grift May Be Unwinding

#53

Post by hn_throwaway_99 »

landa wrote: post #12
formerkrogemp wrote: post #4

Quoted post unavailable.

If you really believe it doesn't have "any value at all" then I invite you to sell it short. That's a free $30,000. The nice thing about markets is that you can express your opinion, and that market opinions without corresponding positions can be ignored.

The fact that I've seen many, many rejoinders to "crypto has no long term value" in the "well, just short it then" vein makes me think these talking points must be what the cool kids on r/Bitcoin or somewhere are spewing.

I don't necessarily believe all crypto is going to zero, but for Bitcoin specifically I believe (a) that proof of work is definitely unsustainable as the market cap grows and (b) given the power of miners in the BTC protocol, I have a difficult time believing they'll ever transition off PoW (e.g. compared to what ETH has done).

But, of course, shorting an asset requires conviction not just that its value is going down, but when. I would easily bet that within some decent extended time period, say 15 years, that the value of BTC will be zero or near zero. I am unaware how to short an asset feasibly over that long of a time period.

Re: The Great Crypto Grift May Be Unwinding

#54

Post by Godel_unicode »

dboat wrote: post #28
andrewstuart wrote: post #2

Crypto will come back again. The reason is because it's very closely related to gambling and triggers the same obsessive thinking as gambling does - based on my observations of how I felt and thought when I did some crypto investing - I found myself constantly checking prices and devoting huge amounts of thought to it - I even wrote a crypto trading bot to analyse strategies. If you know anyone into crypto you would…

> If you know anyone into crypto you would know they talk about it non stop. Not really. There are a lot of people holding, mining, DCA'ing into projects they believe in who have no trouble at all keeping it to themselves. Your remarks about gambling are similarly projecting a portion of the community onto the rest. Those traders who treat it as a speculative asset are gambling as you say, and tend to be obsessive in…

I'm extremely skeptical that this silent majority exists because I don't see crypto being used for anything other than hodl-ing. Do you have indicators you can point to of cryptocurrency being used as a real currency?

Re: The Great Crypto Grift May Be Unwinding

#55

Post by Godel_unicode »

woodruffw wrote: post #45
mechanical_bear wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regulate a useful technology into the dirt because you have incorrect assumptions, and are generally ignorant about it?

I can assure you that, to my vague displeasure, I am somewhat of the opposite of "generally ignorant" of cryptocurrencies. And I haven't stated any assumptions, other than the relatively bland claim that "people gamble with it."

More to the point, consumer protection in the form of regulation is what makes a currency and banking system real. There's far too much risk for the average person to consider using cryptocurrency the way they currently use EUR or USD without such a regime.

Re: The Great Crypto Grift May Be Unwinding

#56

Post by datadata »

etaioinshrdlu wrote: post #23

Crypto cannot create wealth, only move it around. If too many people become crypto-rich and try to spend it on real-world assets, the assets will just inflate in price. What can happen is that crypto could replace other forms of money. Governments will likely fight this tooth and nail however, because crypto is currently an anti-government technology.

> Governments will likely fight this tooth and nail however, because crypto is currently an anti-government technology.

Democratic governments represent the will of the people, and I don't think a technology can be pro-government or anti-government, it ultimately depends on what the people what. I think you are correct though for autocratic governments. Would you for example say that guns are clearly anti-government or pro-government?

Re: The Great Crypto Grift May Be Unwinding

#57

Post by mikestaszel »

arikr wrote: post #18
0xB31B1B wrote: post #13

The best crypto grift was the neobank startups that were front ends for investing in anchor, a 20%APY crypto ponzi. Anchor crashed with Luna and all those startups kept their money in failed stable coins and have folded and failed to make payroll. They lost all of their money and all of their customers money. Woof

Which Neobanks have gone bust or are likely to as a result of Luna?

https://www.alice.co/ is one.

Re: The Great Crypto Grift May Be Unwinding

#58

Post by candiddevmike »

Nav_Panel wrote: post #48
dboat wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you know anyone into crypto you would know they talk about it non stop. Not really. There are a lot of people holding, mining, DCA'ing into projects they believe in who have no trouble at all keeping it to themselves. Your remarks about gambling are similarly projecting a portion of the community onto the rest. Those traders who treat it as a speculative asset are gambling as you say, and tend to be obsessive in…

Yep, exactly. I've been working in crypto for 4 years and counting, still haven't purchased a single token as an investment. I don't like downside risk, I like to build product. We've weathered one bear market, we'll weather another. Thankfully there's cool stuff in the ecosystem that isn't a scam, but it's not newsworthy, so it doesn't go viral.

Can you give some examples of cool stuff that isn't a scam? I'm genuinely curious.

Re: The Great Crypto Grift May Be Unwinding

#59

Post by adam_arthur »

Nav_Panel wrote: post #52
adam_arthur wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't and never has. 0 intrinsic value. Great to see all these idiot fueled bubbles popping

Same with greenbacks tho EDIT: let me elaborate before you downvote: the value of a US dollar is not "intrinsic", it's the result of the strength of the US government and military, i.e. due to social factors that cause it to be accepted as a medium for exchange. Crypto is no different: any crypto asset that has an exchange value (i.e. for which there's a liquid market) is backed by social proof of some kind, although…

Remind me again what the price of BTC is most commonly quoted in?

Re: The Great Crypto Grift May Be Unwinding

#60

Post by paulcole »

dboat wrote: post #28
andrewstuart wrote: post #2

Crypto will come back again. The reason is because it's very closely related to gambling and triggers the same obsessive thinking as gambling does - based on my observations of how I felt and thought when I did some crypto investing - I found myself constantly checking prices and devoting huge amounts of thought to it - I even wrote a crypto trading bot to analyse strategies. If you know anyone into crypto you would…

> If you know anyone into crypto you would know they talk about it non stop. Not really. There are a lot of people holding, mining, DCA'ing into projects they believe in who have no trouble at all keeping it to themselves. Your remarks about gambling are similarly projecting a portion of the community onto the rest. Those traders who treat it as a speculative asset are gambling as you say, and tend to be obsessive in…

> projects they believe in

really curious whether what they believe is anything other than “I’ll cash out before it tanks.”

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