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The tech sector teardown is more catharsis than crisis

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211–220 of 258 posts

Re: The tech sector teardown is more catharsis than crisis

#211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Coinbase isn't paying $380k base either..are you just quibbling over the meaning of salary?

I don't think it is quibbling. It is a really important distinction. Salary is (mostly) guaranteed. Equity isn't guaranteed at all.

>Equity isn't guaranteed at all.

Especially not at coinbase, whose stock has imploded to the tune of -75% just this year, and more since IPO.

Re: The tech sector teardown is more catharsis than crisis

#212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Coinbase isn't paying $380k base either..are you just quibbling over the meaning of salary?

I don't think it is quibbling. It is a really important distinction. Salary is (mostly) guaranteed. Equity isn't guaranteed at all.

To quibble even more, it's much harder (legally) to take away unvested RSUs than it is to demote / reduce salary.

Re: The tech sector teardown is more catharsis than crisis

#213
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People have called Tech bubbles since 2012, There have been at least 2-3 similar sell-offs over the last decade that simply lead to higher tech valuations within a year or two. Hence the term "correction" is used, this also helps assuage nervous retail investors that another '01 or '08 crash isn't around the corner. The difference between then and now is that interest rates are blasting through the roof along with in…

> The difference between then and now is that interest rates are blasting through the roof along with inflation. The effective federal interest rate is 0.33% today. It was 2.4% before COVID...

The current fed funds rate is 1% (0.75-1.0)

the next 2 meetings they plan to raise it by 0.5 each meeting. and then 0.25 each meeting after that until inflation is gone.

in 2019 they started lowering it because they crashed the market by raising it to 2.5. which proves the point

trajectory matters alot.

Re: The tech sector teardown is more catharsis than crisis

#214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The vast majority of engineers earning these salaries work for "startups" like Google minting huge amounts of money on software built by these engineers. They are underpaid if anything. Do you really think management or shareholders (that get paid more for doing less) are the underpaid ones in this equation? Where else would the money go? The amount of revenue per employees at some of these companies is in the 7 figu…

Define FAANG. Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google employ <1M engineers in the US. There are 4.4M engineers in the US.

That does not change the point that most of the engineers earning insane salaries are working for FAANG

There are 4.4M engineers in the US, but almost all of them make far less than the one working for FAANG.

Re: The tech sector teardown is more catharsis than crisis

#215
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're misunderstanding the theory. Hiring without fixed length contract is just interviewing. It's somewhat expensive interviewing, but given the legend of the 10x developer, it is worth risking paying people more than what they are worth to try to identify them.

True, I’d claim that the 10x people exist but would be impossible to spot based upon resumes and many of their resumes would fail to hit the checkbox requirements of the organizations looking for them. Also, in general I’d claim that 10x people aren’t necessary for most projects and tend to get stifled by bureaucracy.

10x deba exist for a given project. The same dev can be amazing in one environment and suck on a different one.

Re: The tech sector teardown is more catharsis than crisis

#216

My biggest question behind all of this is how interconnected is the tech bubble, and how self-perpetuating will a downturn be? The venture-backed startups that I’ve worked at have themselves utilized tools built by other venture-backed startups. It seems like there’s an entire cottage industry of SaaS tools designed to make it easier to scale up small companies. What will the effect of a startup downturn be on compan…

I definitely think there's an advertising bubble and it's popping. Lots of startups' "business model" is "growth and engagement" - pump up user and "engagement" numbers and VCs will throw money at you, and maybe you even get a bigger sucker that outright buys you out. Spend all that money on advertising & marketing to keep these "engagement" numbers going up, all while having no actual product users pay for. This in…

"I definitely think there's an advertising bubble and it's popping."

And Twitter is the tip of the pin popping that bubble. Going to be fun seeing Facebook and Google in particular get reset too. I've long considered online advertising to be barely above modern day snake oil.

Re: The tech sector teardown is more catharsis than crisis

#217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was paid $165k a year by a neobank startup to.....build their bank. It's now responsible for over $200mm a year in revenue. I was the sole engineer on the project. Good engineers are worth their weight in gold.

Yeah when I read takes like the guy you're responding to, I have to wonder: where should the money go if not to the people that built the product? Management? Shareholders? You can say that but those people are doing less work for more money already, so I don't buy it. Engineers like many people that build useful things, provide orders of magnitude more value than what they get for their labor.

Well...op left the company, so why should he still get a cut of their current revenues ? That does not seem very fair to the current engineers who a currently able to manage the $200 MM. As far as we know, the company really started working well when they were finally able to replace his crappy code with a better implementation.

The money probably goes to management, who stuck during the entire story - which OP didn't. It also goes to current employees who, by their number alone require more money. And of course to stakeholder who paid for OP $165k when the bank was making $0.

Re: The tech sector teardown is more catharsis than crisis

#218

"Following a series of “super clarifying” meetings with shareholders, Uber’s chief executive Dara Khosrowshahi emailed(opens a new window) employees on Sunday night with an arresting message: “we need to show them the money”." So the stockholders finally got fed up with Uber's "lose money on every ride and make it up on volume" approach. No surprise. Uber's stock is at an all-time low since the public offering. This…

Uber is the epitome of modern day sharecropping - shift all the risk and expense - many of which are hidden because they are long term or rolling expenses (insurance, maintenance/car replacement/physical security, etc) - to drivers. Waive the allure of immediate cash at people and damn the longer term consequences.

Re: The tech sector teardown is more catharsis than crisis

#219

The only reason there is a recession is because people believe there is a recession

I'm not sure how you can belief this terrible cliche to be true. Without even bringing up money or inflation: Oil and other products are in much higher demand compared to the supply than the current system can handle right this moment. You can get less of what you used to get and its obvious for everyone. This has immediate consequences, but also compounding when slower/lower trade directly effects the ability for pe…

"Oil and other products are in much higher demand compared to the supply" You mean when you arbitrarily cut off supply to satisfy a fringe element it has repercussions? Who knew?!?

Re: The tech sector teardown is more catharsis than crisis

#220
post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm interviewing right now, and thus far still plenty of interviews. It probably matters what kind of thing you're looking for: I mostly prefer small outfits but stay away from SF-style "venture-backed" setups in the first place. Turns out that outside of the "bubble" the economy is just churning along as usual. The position I'm most excited about now is just a small self-funded company making something useful and is…

> That said, I did have a job offer that was rescinded at the last moment At what point in the process was it rescinded? Had you already accepted or even started the process of getting your equipment / Onboarding?

After third interview on Friday: "I'll send a contract this afternoon, let me know what you think and when you can start". "Great, looking forward to starting!"

Next Monday: "Oh sorry, no".

But by then I had already quit. As I said, perhaps not the smartest move, but I hated it so much and I feel a lot happier since I quit, so shrug. It's all good; no hard feelings. These things happen.

Also, should be pointed out I didn't reply to a job vacancy, but applied via an "open solicitation" through a connection. So they weren't specifically looking for someone to fill a specific role, and it was more "hey, this looks like a good developer I heard good stories about, so let's talk!"

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